Examining the Future of Third-Party Candidates Post-Rejection of RFK Jr.

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Some people in the crowd booed former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate currently ahead in polls in certain swing states. Others did not support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate polling at 15% in some surveys.

Instead, at their convention over the weekend, the Libertarian Party chose Chase Oliver, a former congressional candidate who is not well-known. Chase Oliver is aiming for the party to reach 2% of the popular vote on Election Day.

It seems that Libertarians are driven by their belief in extremely limited government involvement, which is what sets them apart as Libertarians. They are not looking to form an uneasy partnership to support Trump or to assist Kennedy in qualifying for a debate.

A match with Kennedy seemed like a good idea at first glance. Libertarians have ballot access in 38 states, and Kennedy is on the ballot in six states, with plans to be on more by Election Day.

However, the plan to put Kennedy at the top of the Libertarian Party ticket to combine his momentum with their organization backfired. Kennedy suffered a humiliating defeat at the Libertarian Party convention in Washington, failing to even make it past the first round of voting.

Trump, who could potentially attract some Libertarians with his anti-government stance, was unable to participate in the nominating process due to incomplete paperwork. Now, the question arises: where does Kennedy's support originate from?

Kennedy's political beliefs are a blend of his background as an environmental activist, his strong belief in conspiracy theories, and his skepticism towards vaccines. These views do not align perfectly with Libertarian ideals.

Despite being running mates, Kennedy and Nicole Shanahan, a major supporter of the campaign and the ex-wife of a Google co-founder, have differing opinions on abortion and Middle East policies. They are not always on the same page politically.

Among those who didn’t vote for Biden or Trump in 2020, Kennedy received 37% support in a CNN poll conducted by SSRS in April. Trump garnered 30% backing from these voters who chose another candidate or did not vote, while Biden only received 12% support.

According to a recent analysis by CNN’s Harry Enten, Kennedy may attract slightly more support from Trump than from Biden. Enten cited Quinnipiac University polling which showed that 51% of Kennedy supporters would back Trump in a two-way matchup, while 37% would choose Biden.

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In a recent analysis, Enten highlighted that a significant number of Kennedy's supporters may not be aware of his key stances, such as his views on vaccines. As Election Day approaches, support for third-party candidates tends to decrease.

The highest percentage achieved by a third-party candidate in recent history was Ross Perot, who received 19% of the vote in 1992.

The last third-party candidate to win a state and get Electoral Votes was George Wallace in 1968, winning Southern states. The only third-party candidate to outperform a major party candidate was former President Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, when he outpolled Republicans after failing to get their nomination and running as a third-party candidate. Woodrow Wilson, a Democrat, won that election.

So, what exactly are Libertarians aiming for?

Kennedy is polling higher than most recent third-party or independent candidates, however, the majority of them are not making much of an impact. For example, if Oliver manages to secure 2% of the popular vote, it would surpass the performance of the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen in 2020, but still fall short of Gary Johnson’s 3.28% in 2016.

CNN’s Aaron Pellish attended the Libertarian convention and when questioned about the opposition towards Kennedy and Trump, he shared the following insights.

First of all, Libertarian opposition to Trump and Kennedy stems from fundamental disagreements on policy. While both candidates have called for the US to reduce its involvement in foreign conflicts, many Libertarians believe that Trump and Kennedy do not go far enough in preventing wars globally. Additionally, a lot of Libertarians support the idea of getting rid of the Federal Reserve and are against the government taxing citizens, which are extreme measures that neither Trump nor Kennedy expressed support for during the convention.

I spoke to several Libertarians who expressed frustration with what they perceived as efforts by both candidates to appeal to party members in order to secure votes in November.

Some convention attendees made connections between Kennedy and Trump with Bob Barr, a former GOP congressman who ran as the Libertarian presidential nominee in 2008, and Bill Weld, the former Republican Governor of Massachusetts who ran as the Libertarian Party’s vice presidential nominee alongside Gary Johnson. Barr and Weld both chose to leave the Libertarian Party after they were unsuccessful in their respective elections.

The resentment some Libertarians felt towards the two interlopers seemed to stem from the memory of past politicians who had used the party for their own purposes without fully embracing Libertarian values.

Ron Paul, on the other hand, took a different approach. He initially ran for president as a Libertarian in the 1980s, but later decided to run as a Libertarian-leaning Republican. While he knew he wouldn't win the Republican nomination, he believed he could have a greater impact on policies by being part of a major party.

Now, Kennedy’s campaign and the supporting super PAC face the challenge of getting on enough state ballots to have a significant impact on the election.

The Green Party is the only third party that is consistently on the ballot in all 50 states. It will not officially choose a nominee until July. Jill Stein, who was the Green Party nominee in 2012 and 2016, is a strong contender for the position. The Green Party's most successful election was in 2000, when Ralph Nader received over 2% of the vote. Some argue that Nader's votes in Florida may have impacted the outcome of the election, potentially costing Al Gore the presidency.

Even a small percentage, like less than 2%, can have a significant impact on election results.

In a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove, a Republican consultant known for running George W. Bush's campaigns, pointed out that in the 2016 election, the Green Party candidate Stein received more votes than Trump's winning margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Rove suggests that Stein's candidacy may have hurt the chances of the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, in winning the election.

Rove goes on to suggest that a similar situation may have occurred in the 2020 election. He notes that the Libertarian candidate Jorgensen received less than 2% of the national vote but garnered more votes than Biden's margin of victory in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

Rove may be right about the stats, but his assessment could be wrong. In the 2016 election, Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, did better than Stein in the states Rove talked about. Despite this, Trump still won. FairVote, an organization advocating for election reform, has gathered information on third-party candidates.

Instead of concentrating on the small number of voters who support third-party candidates, why not consider the much larger group of people who don't vote at all?

In the 2020 presidential election, Biden emerged as the winner with the highest voter turnout since 1900. However, only 66% of eligible voters actually cast their ballots, as per a study by Pew Research Center. Voter turnout varied across different states, with some seeing higher participation rates than others.

Editor's P/S:

The article sheds light on the Libertarian Party's unique stance in the upcoming election, driven by their belief in limited government involvement. Despite the party's goal of securing 2% of the popular vote, it faces challenges as its candidates, Chase Oliver and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., lack widespread recognition and support. Kennedy's political views, particularly his skepticism towards vaccines and conspiracy theories, do not align perfectly with Libertarian ideals.

The article also highlights the potential impact of third-party candidates on election outcomes. While their share of the popular vote may be small, they can potentially influence the results in close races, as demonstrated by the Green Party's performance in 2000 and 2016. However, it is important to consider the significant number of eligible voters who do not participate in elections, suggesting that efforts to engage these non-voters could have a more substantial impact than focusing solely on third-party candidates.