Emerging Threat: Iranian-backed Militias Poised for Escalated Attacks on US Forces in the Middle East

Multiple US officials have confirmed that Iranian-backed militia groups are intending to escalate their assaults on US forces in the Middle East. This development comes as Iran endeavors to exploit the regional uproar against US backing for Israel. Notably, these militia groups have already conducted several drone attacks on US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria.

The US currently possesses intelligence indicating that these identical groups may intensify their activities in conjunction with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.

A US official in the region informed CNN that there are widespread indications of potential escalation, evident through numerous "red lights flashing."

Iran is currently seen as providing support and encouragement to militia groups, rather than giving them explicit instructions. One official mentioned that Iran is offering guidance to these groups, assuring them that they will face no consequences, such as lack of weapon resupply, if they continue to target US or Israeli interests. John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, expressed concern about the possibility of these attacks escalating in the near future, emphasizing the close association between these groups and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran provides support to various proxy militia groups in multiple countries in the region through the IRGC-Quds Force. However, Tehran's control over these groups is not always absolute, and their level of autonomy remains uncertain, according to a reliable source.

According to Kirby, Iran is closely monitoring the situation and, in certain instances, actively assisting in attacks and encouraging others who seek to take advantage of the conflict for their own benefit. While Iran aims to maintain some level of deniability, we will not permit them to do so.

When asked by CNN on Monday about Iran's influence on the groups, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that regardless of whether or not they are directly controlling them, these are militias that Iran has supported and is accountable for.

According to a senior State Department official who spoke separately to CNN, the US and its allies are in agreement that it is essential to send a clear message to Iran. They emphasized that Iran should not attempt to exploit the situation, and the groups under its control or influence should refrain from doing the same. If Tehran chooses to disregard this warning, it could lead to highly dangerous and severe consequences.

"Its not just a US message; its a shared message," the official said.

Qatar has been a key intermediary between the US and its allies and Iran, multiple officials told CNN.

Another source familiar with the intelligence stated that in the recent drone attacks on bases housing US forces, Iran bears more responsibility compared to the Hamas attack in Israel. It was previously reported by CNN that Iranian government officials seemed surprised by the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7.

Iranian proxy forces have previously carried out attacks on bases where US troops are stationed, leading to airstrikes by the US against their infrastructure, as recently as March. However, another source disclosed that currently, Iran has a strong desire to escalate the conflict, and their tolerance for risk is significant.

In response to increased threats, the US is actively strengthening its defenses. The country currently has approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and around 900 in Syria as part of the anti-ISIS coalition. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that additional air defense systems would be deployed to the region due to recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East.

The Pentagon confirmed that two drones targeting US forces in Syria were successfully shot down on Monday. In addition, troops in Iraq and Syria experienced three separate drone attacks last week believed to be carried out by Iranian proxy groups. Last Thursday, a US Navy warship operating near the coast of Yemen intercepted multiple missiles launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants, which were potentially targeting Israel.

In Tehran, there seems to be a lack of consensus regarding the preferred approach to address the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.

According to the senior State Department official, it is highly likely that there are varying opinions within the Iranian system advocating for different strategies.

Another official stated that Iran is unlikely to directly engage in combat with Israel or the US. However, by instructing proxies to target US assets in the Middle East, Iran can preserve its influence and reputation while minimizing the risk of escalation. During a news conference with South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor in Tehran on Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian likened the Middle East to a "powder keg," as reported by state-aligned Tasnim news.

Referring to the US and Israel, Abdollahian emphasized the grave repercussions that may arise from any miscalculations involving genocide and forced displacement. The Iranian foreign minister further cautioned the two countries that failure to halt crimes against humanity could result in the region spiraling into chaos.

"We are worried about the possibility of a situation getting worse," Austin shared on ABC's "This Week." "In fact, there is a growing concern about an increased likelihood of attacks targeting our military forces and civilians in the entire region. As a result, we are committed to taking the required actions to ensure the safety of our troops, ensuring they are well positioned and protected, and maintaining our capability to retaliate if needed."