Are the Iowa caucuses still relevant in today's political landscape?
The Iowa caucuses, set for January 15, are the initial litmus test for the 2024 presidential race Discover the significance of this unique voting process, the key candidates, the issues that matter to Iowa voters, and the historical importance of the state's outcome Explore the changes and challenges faced by the Iowa caucuses, including the reasons behind Democrats transitioning to a new system
This story was first published in CNN's What Matters newsletter. To receive it directly in your email, sign up for free here.
The initial trial of the 2024 presidential election will take place on January 15, as Iowa Republicans come together to caucus in various locations such as high school gyms, community buildings, and churches.
What is a caucus?
The caucuses, being the first event of the party primary calendar for the past half century, will be significant for former President Donald Trump's comeback bid and may assist Republicans in deciding which of his challengers to support if they are tired of Trump.
Caucuses differ from primaries in that they are essentially party-run meetings held at specific times, such as 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Unlike primaries, they do not involve traditional polling places or secret ballots, and are often seen as a test of a candidate's organizational strength.
How are votes cast at a caucus?
As the caucuses commence, surrogates for Republican candidates deliver their final pitches, followed by the distribution of paper ballots to caucusgoers. The ballots are counted on-site, and the results are subsequently shared with the party.
Who are the main candidates?
Trump has had a consistent lead in Iowa polls. But the state has been the site of numerous perceived upsets in the past.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and a super PAC supporting him have made significant investments in Iowa. DeSantis is set to complete the "full Grassley" this Saturday, meaning he will have visited all 99 counties in Iowa, a feat that Senator Chuck Grassley has accomplished every year for the past 43 years.
Recent polling shows that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is gaining momentum and could potentially surpass DeSantis as the leading Trump alternative in the GOP primary. Other candidates in the mix include former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Ohio businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson. Learn more about the 2024 GOP presidential candidates.
Trump has notably skipped debates and candidate forums, hoping to ride his front-runner status to victory.
Whats important to Iowa voters?
Evangelical voters are a crucial segment of the Republican population in Iowa, with socially conservative candidates historically performing strongly in the state GOP caucuses. Examples of this include former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's 2012 victory and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's win in 2016.
Former Vice President Mike Pence attempted to appeal to religious conservatives in Iowa for his campaign this year, but ultimately suspended his bid for the presidency due to a lack of noticeable progress.
Iowans have leveraged the state's prominence on the presidential calendar to advocate for important issues such as agricultural subsidies, ethanol additives for gasoline, and this year, the emerging issue of carbon pipelines.
Video Ad Feedback
Here's who Iowa voter panelists think won the debate
05:12
- Source:
CNN
Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House?
In a non-incumbent year, when a party's nomination is up for grabs, Iowa's track record in predicting the president is inconsistent, especially for Republicans. George W. Bush in 2000 is the only Republican to have won a competitive Iowa contest and then gone on to win the presidency.
In 2008, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses and later became the President of the United States. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, placing second to a slate of "uncommitted" delegates but still secured the party's nomination and ultimately won the presidency.
Notable losses include Ronald Reagan placing second in 1980 to George H.W. Bush, who ended up becoming his running mate. Reagan had previously won the Iowa caucuses in 1976, but then-President Gerald Ford won the GOP nomination and lost the White House.
In 1980, despite winning the caucuses, the elder Bush lost them in 1988 to then-Sen. Bob Dole, even though he was running as the sitting vice president. He went on to secure the GOP nomination. Similarly, Trump, despite being the favorite in pre-caucus polling this year, lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Cruz.
Werent there some problems with the Iowa caucuses?
Thats an understatement. Both Republicans and Democrats have experienced total system meltdowns in Iowa.
In 2012, Mitt Romney was initially declared the winner of the caucuses based on the early returns, but it was later revealed that Santorum had narrowly won. The caucus-night error cost Santorum crucial momentum. Despite this, Romney won the next state, New Hampshire, and the Republican nomination, but ultimately lost the general election. Since then, Republican Party leaders have made changes to their system.
Are Democrats caucusing this year?
In 2020, the Democrats had their chance. However, technical issues with an app designed to streamline the counting process led to so much chaos that no winner was declared for weeks. Pete Buttigieg was eventually declared the winner, but by then it was too late for him to gain momentum and make an impact.
Iowa Democrats will be meeting to caucus in person on January 15, but they will not be conducting a presidential primary preference vote on that date. Instead, they have until March 5 to vote by mail, with results being released on Super Tuesday.
Video Ad Feedback
Iowa Democratic Party releases statement about caucus delay
02:53
- Source:
CNN
Why the change for Democrats?
This is the first time since 1972 that the Iowa caucuses will not be the first event on Democrats presidential nomination calendar. (Republicans went Iowa-first in 1976.)
In 2020, President Joe Biden, who had placed fourth in the Iowa caucuses, urged Democrats to reconsider the primary election schedule. Criticisms from within the party centered on Iowa's predominantly white, rural demographic and the logistical barriers of caucus participation. In response, the Democratic Party chose South Carolina to hold its primary election on February 3, and New Hampshire decided to hold its own primary on January 23.
How did Iowa get to go first?
After violence disrupted their 1968 primary in Chicago, Democrats tried to make the primary process more democratic.
As a result of the Iowa legislature's decision to move the caucuses earlier in the year, then-Sen. George McGovern received significant media attention after a surprisingly strong finish. Despite winning the Democratic nomination in 1972, McGovern ultimately lost the White House to the Republican incumbent, Richard Nixon, who did not have to contend with the Iowa caucuses in their current form.
