Donald Trump Holds Wide Lead Over Republican Competitors in Iowa

Trump Leads Among Likely GOP Caucusgoers

Former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead over his Republican presidential competitors among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday's caucuses found. Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice, 20% name former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and 16% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the field below 10%. Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls. Haleys numerical move to second place is within the margin of error. Neither her support nor DeSantiss has changed significantly since the December poll, when DeSantis stood at 19% to Haleys 16% in a survey with a 4.4 point error margin. In this poll, Haley faces a sizable enthusiasm gap compared with Trump or DeSantis. While majorities of their supporters say they are enthusiastic about their candidates, only about 4 in 10 of hers say the same.

Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley.

Iowa's most important poll has set the expectations for the GOP caucuses. Overall, roughly two-thirds of likely caucusgoers - 68% - say their minds are made up about whom to support. The poll was fielded among 705 likely GOP caucusgoers during the final stretch of campaigning from January 7 to January 12, with Trump's backers far more likely to say they are committed to their candidate than those supporting other candidates. About 8 in 10 Trump supporters - 82% - say their minds are made up, up from December when 70% said they were locked in. Fewer Haley backers, 63%, or DeSantis supporters, 64%, are similarly locked in, though both have solidified a majority of their supporters for the first time in the NBC/DMR polls tracking of this measure. And Trump's backers are likewise more enthusiastic about supporting him than are supporters of either Haley or DeSantis. While 88% of Trump-backing likely caucusgoers say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about him, a smaller majority of DeSantis backers - 62% - feel the same way and just 39% of Haley's supporters in Iowa express that level of enthusiasm for her.