Did the 2024 Golden Globes Predict the Oscars?

The Influence of the Golden Globes on the Oscars

The 2024 awards season kicked off with the 81st Golden Globe Awards on January 7, and following the ceremony, it is a bit easier to make predictions for the upcoming 96th Academy Awards. Historically, the Golden Globes paint a clearer picture regarding the true contenders for not only the Oscar nominees but also the frontrunners to win categories like Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, and so on. Of course, the Academy Awards do not always align with the Golden Globe Awards since they are run by two different organizations with two different sets of voters. However, there is no denying that the Globes set a precedent for the rest of the awards season.

Ryan Gosling dancing to I'm Just Ken in Barbie

The winners at the 2024 Golden Globes could continue their triumphant runs at upcoming award ceremonies, like the 29th Critics' Choice Awards, the 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards, the 96th Oscars, and more. The Globes are truly only the beginning of a long run of ceremonies celebrating the best in film in 2023. Once the Oscar nominees are announced (which will take place on January 23), publications can make their official predictions for the winners, and the Golden Globe victors will undoubtedly be a factor when making projections.

Christopher Nolan looking into a camera directing Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling's Oscar Prospects

The nominations for the 96th Academy Awards have not been announced yet. Still, many experts expect Ryan Gosling to be nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his role as Ken in Greta Gerwig's Barbie. He has also been the frontrunner to take home the Oscar in that category, but that might not be the case following the 81st Golden Globe Awards. Gosling was nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the Globes, alongside Willem Dafoe for Poor Things, Charles Melton for May December, Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer, Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon, and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things. However, Gosling didn't win — Downey Jr. did.

Robert Downey Jr.'s Lewis Strauss looking angry in Oppenheimer

Following the release of Barbie in the summer of 2023, the movie received a lot of praise, but Gosling's performance was at the forefront of the acclaim. Many expected him to dominate the Best Supporting Actor category in the 2024 awards season. But the Golden Globes suggest otherwise, with Downey Jr. pulling out a win for his role as Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer, meaning that Gosling might not receive his first Oscar this year (and Downey Jr. could). The Best Supporting Actor race at the 2024 Oscars will be one to watch, that much we know.

Ken (Ryan Gosling) looks at his biceps as he flexes them against the saloon door of his "mojo dojo case house" in Barbie.

Christopher Nolan's Best Director Win

The 81st Golden Globe Awards confirmed one significant prediction that many believed was a certainty — Christopher Nolan has a 99.99% chance of winning Best Director for Oppenheimer at the 96th Academy Awards. Nolan has been the frontrunner to take home the directing Oscar since the 2023 epic biographical thriller film premiered. Nolan, Greta Gerwig, and Martin Scorsese (for Killers of the Flower Moon) are all but locked as nominees, and Nolan might as well start preparing his acceptance speech after taking home the Golden Globe for Best Director at the 81st ceremony.

Greta Gerwig on the Barbie set with Ryan Gosling

Nolan has been nominated at the Academy Awards five times and only once for Best Director. As a result, many voters might be persuaded to give him the win. Of course, he did a fantastic job with Oppenheimer, which, along with Barbie, will receive many nominations at the 96th Oscars. So, Nolan undeniably deserves to take home the award for Best Director. But to be one of the best filmmakers of our generation and not have a win at the Academy Awards might give voters more of an incentive to fill in Nolan's name on their ballots. Gerwig and Scorsese could give him a run for his money, but the 2024 Globes suggest otherwise.

Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer's final moments.