DeSantis-Haley Rivalry Takes Center Stage as Trump Remains Frontrunner, Two Weeks Before the Caucuses

The Citrus Bowl played on the TVs inside the busy central Iowa sports bar while the phrase "dumpster fire" blared over the pub's speakers during the second quarter. However, the criticism was not aimed at the Iowa Hawkeyes' underwhelming performance in the New Year's Day game. Instead, it was a political ad targeting the presidential campaign of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who entered the bar later and tried to persuade Iowans that the description was not accurate.

"We're going to accomplish it," he assured one man after taking a sip of Guinness.

The airwaves in Iowa are currently saturated with ads from allies of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley attacking DeSantis, and vice versa, with the caucuses just two weeks away. In fact, after DeSantis left the bar, a commercial labeling Haley as "Tricky Nikki" was aired, funded by a super PAC backing the Florida governor. This demonstrates how the two are ruthlessly targeting each other as the competition heats up.

No ad targeting the front-runner, Donald Trump, aired during the Citrus Bowl broadcast, reflecting a recurring theme in the ad wars of this presidential cycle. The former president is rarely the focus of the millions of dollars spent to sway Republicans, and his rivals on the campaign trail have also shifted their attention elsewhere.

As the Republican presidential contenders prepare their final appeals to Iowans, there are few signs that these dynamics will change before the January 15 caucuses. Failing to establish themselves as the clear alternative to Trump in 2023, the success of his challengers in 2024 now depends on swiftly pushing each other out of the picture.

Trump has increased his appearances in the early nominating states, holding four events in Iowa in the final month of the year.

His significant influence as a former president, combined with his ongoing legal issues, has overshadowed his current presidential campaign. A strong showing in the initial nominating contest could set the stage for a quick victory for Trump. However, even the most optimistic projections indicate that Republicans are still divided on whether he should be the party's representative in the future. His campaign, determined to avoid the mistakes of 2016 when he lost in Iowa, has focused on recruiting and training nearly 2,000 volunteers in the state.

The rest of the field continues to weigh the calculation that it's better to defend the former president amid increasing challenges to his candidacy, rather than risk upsetting Republicans who are considering - but not yet committed to - shifting to a new candidate. DeSantis, Haley, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have all come out in defense of Trump after Maine's Democratic secretary of state removed him from the ballot last week. They have also stated that they would pardon Trump - who faces four criminal indictments - if elected to the White House. "All they've done is diminish each other's momentum, and Trump remains unharmed," said Jeff Angelo, a conservative radio host in Iowa who has interviewed most of the GOP field on his popular show. "They have spent almost all of their time attacking each other, and they're barely touching Trump. It's the exact same problem as in 2016."

There were numerous instances of unequal treatment in the final days of December. For example, when Haley failed to acknowledge slavery's role in the Civil War at a New Hampshire town hall, DeSantis harshly criticized her for days. He claimed she wasn't "ready for primetime" while his campaign circulated every negative headline about the gaffe. In contrast, when Trump used the language of White supremacists to describe undocumented immigrants earlier in December, DeSantis merely called it a "tactical mistake."

Haley has accused DeSantis of distorting her record to further his own presidential ambitions, while her supporters have frequently mocked the chaos surrounding his political operation. However, she has consistently avoided directly addressing whether she would be Trump's running mate, and her criticisms of him are much less harsh compared to others.

DeSantis and Haley are set to appear in back-to-back town halls hosted by CNN on Thursday and will participate in one more debate before Iowa Republicans caucus. Trump, for the fifth time, will not take part in the debate, opting to let his opponents battle it out. Instead, the former president will hold two rallies in the state on Saturday.

DeSantis faces a daunting challenge in Iowa, where he has placed his hopes for a strong campaign. The super PAC that supported him in the state has faced upheaval, with leadership departing amid a massive advertising push. DeSantis' loyalists now have control, and another super PAC linked to his team is running ads attacking Haley. Despite this effort, DeSantis' advisers are concerned that their new strategy may not be enough to slow Haley's momentum, and a third-place finish is now a possibility. Additionally, the field operation aiming to narrow Trump's lead in the caucuses is moving forward without its experienced leaders.

DeSantis' closest allies are grappling with the current circumstances, with some seeking answers. Steve Deace, a conservative radio host from Iowa who has worked closely with previous Republican presidential campaigns in the state, remains confident in DeSantis' ground game. He believes there is strong energy at events comparable to previous successful candidates. However, he also noted that Republicans may not be ready to transition away from Trump.

In the month before the caucus, no candidate leading a Des Moines Register poll by double digits has ever gone on to lose. Trump had a lead of over 30 points in the newspaper's December poll.

Deace expressed disbelief in every poll being a scam and questioned the 30-point lead for Trump, stating that there is no evidence on the ground to support it. He also noted the absence of Nikki Haley yard signs two weeks before the caucuses, calling the current election cycle the oddest he has encountered. In response, Trump and his allies have been urging their supporters not to become complacent despite the data indicating his lead in the field.

In response to these circumstances, DeSantis has upheld a busy schedule in hopes of building momentum. He has four appearances scheduled for Wednesday and more this weekend following Thursday's town hall.

Meanwhile, Haley and her supporters are confident that she does not necessarily need to win the most delegates in Iowa to claim victory. Polls consistently show her in a strong second place in the next state to vote, New Hampshire, where she plans to focus leading up to the town hall on Thursday. A strong showing in Iowa will signal momentum for the next round, explained Ray Gaesser, a former president of the Iowa Soybean Association and a supporter of Haley.

Gaesser expressed his belief that she is hitting her peak at the opportune moment and has the potential to capitalize on the current political climate, where there is a desire for a trustworthy candidate with a steady temperament who does not engage in name-calling.

Iowa Republicans' interest in participating in the caucuses continues to wane compared to Democrats in 2020, according to surveys. Political science professor Dave Peterson of Iowa State University supports this sentiment. The unpredictability of the Iowa caucuses is often highlighted by seasoned observers and the campaigns, pointing out that turnout can be influenced by factors such as untimely snowstorms, late-breaking surges by candidates, and exceptional ground game that are difficult to measure in surveys.

All candidates have claimed to have strong field operations. Trump's advisers have stated that his campaign is far more organized than his disorganized team in 2016, when he finished second in the caucuses. Never Back Down has over 100 paid staff who have knocked on doors on behalf of DeSantis over 800,000 times since arriving in the state this spring. The well-financed conservative organization Americans for Prosperity has made an eleventh-hour push for Haley in Iowa as well.

However, Peterson is skeptical. He recalled that in 2015, he was bombarded by campaign mail heading into the caucuses and regularly received phone calls from candidates, especially Sen. Ted Cruz, the eventual winner. There were a lot more flyers and door knocks as well back then.

His phone, including the landline, has been silent this time, and he said there's been little mail from the candidates. He also mentioned that there hasn't been any indication that these efforts can sway Trump supporters at this stage in the race.