A powerful storm will bring a blast of Arctic air to the central US, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season to Texas. Monday's first presidential primary for the 2024 election in Iowa is expected to be the coldest caucus in state history. Additionally, Texas' power grid, known for its vulnerability to extreme temperatures, will be tested by the cold for the first time this winter.
In the northern Plains, temperatures are expected to plummet to 20 to 30 degrees below zero on Friday and Saturday nights, with gusty winds creating frigid wind chills as low as 50 degrees below zero. A wind chill alert has been issued for over 15 million people in the central US, where exposed skin could suffer frostbite in as little as 10 minutes.
The cold will spread south and east across the country and eventually envelop Texas and other parts of the South by the weekend, lasting into the middle of next week.
Across much of Montana and North Dakota, it is expected that the afternoon high temperatures on Friday will not exceed zero degrees. These single digit and 10s temperatures will then move eastward into parts of the central Plains and Midwest.
Over the weekend, the coldest air will extend from Denver to Indianapolis, bringing temperatures at least 30 degrees lower than usual.
In Denver, the high temperature is expected to decrease from 33 degrees on Friday to 10 degrees on Saturday, then dropping to 7 degrees on Sunday. The wind chill on Sunday morning in Denver could be as low as minus 20 degrees.
Shown in this image is the first snow survey of the year being conducted by managers and engineers in Phillips Station, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 2, 2024, as provided by the California Department of Water Resources. California is starting 2024 with a below-normal mountain snowpack, a contrast to the previous year when it experienced one of its best starts in decades, ultimately putting an end to the state's drought thanks to storms. (Andrew Nixon/California Department of Water Resources via AP)
Andrew Nixon/California Department of Water Resources/AP
The Wests winter is off to a dry start, raising concerns for the nations largest reservoirs
The dropping temperatures in Texas are anticipated to lead to a rise in power demand, prompting the state's independent grid operator, ERCOT, to issue a weather watch for Monday. The warning highlights the potential surge in demand and a possible decrease in reserves. Despite ERCOT's assurance on Thursday of sufficient power to prevent outages, the state is still on alert after over 200 deaths, mostly due to hypothermia, during a severe cold and ice storm in February 2021, which prompted ERCOT to implement rolling power outages to prevent a collapse of the power grid.
Texas is expected to experience cold weather, but it won't be as severe, widespread, or long-lasting as in 2021. This cold spell is not anticipated to break any significant records, but it will come as a surprise following a warm beginning to the winter.
Coldest Iowa caucuses on record
Chicago has not experienced a high temperature below freezing since November 28, according to Brett Borchardt, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Chicago, who told CNN. Borchardt also mentioned that wind chills on Monday in Chicago are expected to be "near or below minus 30 degrees," and comparable to the cold snap of 2017-2018.
Iowa has held caucuses every four years since 1972 in either January or February, putting them at risk for cold, but nothing like whats forecast next week.
Monday morning wind chill temperatures across Iowa.
CNN Weather
The upcoming Monday's caucus is expected to be the coldest on record, with forecasts predicting it to be the state's chilliest January day in five years. Wind chills could drop as low as minus 40 degrees, and Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero.
Much of the state will remain below zero degrees on Monday afternoon, with the exception of the far southeastern areas, which may reach one or two degrees above zero.
In Des Moines, the temperature may not surpass zero degrees for the first time since February 2021. The forecast average temperature for Monday is -9.5 degrees, nearly 20 degrees colder than the previous coldest caucus night on January 19, 2004. When factoring in the wind chill, the cold could be life-threatening, ranging from -20 to -40 degrees.
The probable record-breaking cold during the caucus spans multiple Iowa cities, such as Sioux City, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport. This story includes contributions from CNN Meteorologists Monica Garrett and Brandon Miller, as well as CNN's Joe Sutton.