Biden vs. Trump: The Anticipated Showdown

Sign up for CNN's What Matters newsletter to receive a version of this story in your inbox for free. The anticipated rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is becoming more likely as both candidates secured victories in the Republican and Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday.

The flaws and lack of popularity of both candidates point to a potentially contentious election ahead. Republicans are likely to highlight Biden's age and perceived weakness, while Democrats may argue that a second term for Trump could threaten democracy.

So, what other options are available?

If 2024 turns out to be similar to 2020 or 2016, the Republican or Democratic candidate will likely edge out the competition in a few crucial states. This means that third-party or independent candidates, even though their chances of winning are slim in such a highly contested election, could still have a significant impact on the final result.

Third parties, such as the Libertarian Party, have been included on the ballot in all states during recent elections. The Green Party, on the other hand, is typically on the ballot in most states, but not all. While these parties may not have large followings traditionally, in close elections, the tens of thousands of votes they garner in key states can spark a lot of speculation.

It has been suggested that in the 2016 election, the strong presence of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein took away votes from Hillary Clinton, ultimately helping Donald Trump win. Similar concerns were raised about Ralph Nader of the Green Party in Florida during the 2000 election.

However, most detailed analyses show that it is not fair to assume that third-party supporters would automatically choose a major-party candidate if they did not have a third-party option. The Libertarian Party will announce its nominee during a convention in May, while the Green Party will select its candidate in July.

Independent candidates are shaking up the political scene this year. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are running as independents, with Kennedy Jr. having a famous name and deep-pocketed supporters. West has even formed a new party called Justice for All.

On the other hand, No Labels, a centrist group, was formed in response to frustration with the major parties. They are not a political party but are seeking ballot access for a potential "unity" candidate. However, as of now, no such candidate has emerged. Members of No Labels will soon vote on whether or not to continue their search for a candidate.

The group is considering fielding a ticket with a Republican presidential candidate and a Democratic vice presidential candidate. Key moderate figures like Sen. Joe Manchin have confirmed they will not run.

During an interview with CNN's Abby Phillip, No Labels chief strategist Ryan Clancy did not mention any specific candidate who could represent the group. The decision on the group's next steps will be made by its members, whose identities are not public.

On Friday, you will receive updates on whether the plans are moving forward. If they are, you can expect to hear more details in the following weeks about how the ticket will be selected. Kennedy and West's placement on the ballot is something to look out for.

One of the biggest challenges for independent candidates is meeting the requirements to be included on the ballot.

For example, Kanye West faced this obstacle during his unconventional 2020 campaign, which only received around 70,000 votes across 18 states. Interestingly, individuals connected to the Trump campaign assisted West in getting on the ballot in Wisconsin, a key swing state. This move was seen as an attempt to draw votes away from Biden.

Kennedy's campaign is currently working on gathering signatures to secure a spot on the ballots. A well-funded super PAC that supports him is assisting in this effort.

In swing states like Nevada and New Hampshire, Kennedy's campaign has reported that they have collected enough signatures. Additionally, they have also added the blue state of Hawaii to the list.

► The super PAC that supports him claims to have enough signatures to get him on the ballot in the key states of Arizona and Georgia.

► He’s already on the ballot in red state of Utah.

Cornel West’s campaign says it is on the ballot in three states so far: Alaska, Oregon and South Carolina.

How do West and Kennedy do in polls?

It’s complicated and in flux.

A February poll by Marquette University found that in a head-to-head matchup, Trump had 51% to Biden’s 49%.

When Kennedy, West, and the Green Party’s Stein entered the mix, the dynamics shifted. Trump remained in the lead with 42%, followed closely by Biden at 39%. Kennedy garnered 15% of the support, while West and Stein received 3% and 2%, respectively.

In this particular poll, Kennedy attracted more Republican support, while West and Stein drew more support from Democrats. Trump also maintained a larger share of independent voters compared to Biden.

Polling editor Ariel Edwards-Levy from CNN mentioned that polls which specifically mention third-party candidates by name often exaggerate the level of support they actually receive. This is especially true for Kennedy, as his support may be influenced by dissatisfaction with both Biden and Trump, as well as his name recognition, which may not translate to long-term support for his candidacy.

Historically, independent candidates who generate a lot of buzz tend to lose support as Election Day approaches. For example, Ross Perot, the most successful independent candidate in recent history, did not exceed 20% in the national popular vote and did not win any states or electoral votes. In fact, his candidacy may have inadvertently helped elect Bill Clinton, who won the presidency with just 43% of the national vote in 1992.

Who is more afraid of independent candidates?

Democrats. They have actively opposed the No Labels campaign since its inception, warning that it would draw support from Biden.

Complaints have been raised about the coordination between Kennedy’s campaign and the super PAC that is collecting signatures for him.

To understand why Democrats are worried about Kennedy's candidacy, check out Eva McKend's report on his event with Black voters in New York.

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'They need proof': Black voter explains why he supports RFK Jr.

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Kennedy has considered running as a Libertarian and even spoke at the state party convention in California. However, it would be a strange fit for a Kennedy with notably liberal views and a background as an environmental activist to join the Libertarian Party.

According to Matt Welch, the editor at large of the Libertarian magazine Reason, Libertarians are independent-minded individuals who are not easily swayed by wealthy or famous outsiders telling them who to vote for. He compared them to wet cats, as they are hard to control and prefer to make their own decisions.

Welch predicted that Kennedy has raised sufficient funds to hire signature gatherers and lawyers required to secure a spot on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Definitely check out Jake Tapper’s article on his conversations with Kennedy regarding Kennedy’s beliefs about vaccinations. You can also watch the candidate’s discussion with CNN’s Kasie Hunt, where she plays a video to help him recall his statement that no vaccines are completely safe.

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'So you did say it': Hunt debunks RFK Jr. vaccine claims

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Kennedy's opponents, especially those on the liberal side of politics, are likely to invest time and resources in reminding people about his beliefs on vaccines and other conspiracy theories.

Editor's P/S:

The upcoming presidential election looms with uncertainty as the potential rematch between Biden and Trump poses a contentious battle. While third-party candidates like Kennedy and West have slim chances of winning, their presence could significantly impact the outcome, especially in close states. Their supporters may have varying reasons for choosing them, including dissatisfaction with the major candidates or a desire for a centrist alternative.

Independent candidates face challenges in meeting ballot requirements and securing funding. Kennedy's well-funded super PAC and name recognition may give him an edge in this regard. However, his controversial views and past statements on vaccines could hinder his campaign. Democrats express concerns that Kennedy's candidacy could draw votes away from Biden, potentially benefiting Trump. As Election Day approaches, it remains to be seen whether independent candidates will maintain their momentum or fade into the background.