Analysis: Post Super Tuesday, Brace for the Inevitable Rematch
Super Tuesday signifies the culmination of the primary battles, setting the stage for the upcoming general election campaign. As Americans, both Democrats and Republicans, transition from Super Tuesday to Election Day, a sense of anticipation and apprehension looms. The period ahead will test the endurance and resolve of many voters as they navigate through the political landscape.
Super Tuesday signifies the conclusion of the remaining competition in the primaries and signals the start of the general election campaign. The upcoming election presents a rematch between President Joe Biden, who many voters believe is too old, and his predecessor Donald Trump, who is entangled in legal issues, scandals, and has a history of denying election results.
Patrick T. Brown
Patrick T. Brown
Both parties will encounter a lack of enthusiasm. Democrats may not be voting for Biden as much as they are voting against his opponent. On the other hand, Republicans have a range of feelings towards Trump, from admiration to reluctant acceptance to outright opposition. Over the next nine months, Republicans will need to persuade hesitant suburbanites to support Trump once again.
A significant portion of the GOP is enthusiastic about the opportunity to support the former president for a third time. In South Carolina, for instance, 41% of Republican primary voters identify themselves as part of the "MAGA movement," with nearly 9 out of 10 choosing to nominate the former president. Trump's strong connection to the base of his party is evident in the large yard signs and popular social media posts.
However, there is also a vocal minority of "Never Trump" Republicans, including figures such as former Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger and former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.
Fed up with Trump’s perceived offenses against the liberal world order, casual relationship with the truth and history of racially charged rhetoric, they’ve led an exodus of moderate, college-educated voters out of the Republican camp. In North Carolina, exit polls suggest Trump won a slim majority of Republican voters with a college degree. Among Republicans without a degree, Trump racked up 80% of the vote.
There's a third camp: the reluctant Republican stalwarts who are neither Always Trump nor Never Trump. Take South Carolina, where former Gov. Nikki Haley brought in 39.5% of the vote on the strength of her performance in relatively better-educated enclaves around Charleston, Hilton Head and my home city of Columbia.
On March 4 in Fort Worth, Texas, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, a Republican presidential candidate, gave a speech at a campaign rally. She recently won her first Republican primary, defeating former President Donald Trump in Washington D.C. Voters in 16 states, including Texas, will be heading to the polls tomorrow for Super Tuesday.
FORT WORTH, TEXAS - MARCH 4: Republican presidential candidate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign rally on March 4, 2024 in Fort Worth, Texas. Haley won her first Republican primary, besting former President Donald Trump in Washington D.C. on Friday. Voters in 16 states, including Texas, head to the polls tomorrow on Super Tuesday. (Photo by Emil Lippe/Getty Images)
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Opinion: Super Tuesday won’t boost Haley's chances. However, she can still be of assistance to Trump.
In general, these Republicans typically aim for conservative policy wins such as school choice, tax cuts, and a robust national defense. Suburban Republicans have supported Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, but are not as enthusiastic about Trump's aggressive language and dislike his controversial tweets.
In 2016 and 2020, they struck a deal with him - to choose originalist justices for the Supreme Court and support conservative causes. In return, they promised to back him up against attacks from the left.
Now, in 2024, the same deal is up for discussion. The challenge lies in the uncertainty of what policies a Trump administration would prioritize. Many Republicans, like myself, may have hoped for a nominee who would bring more stability to the Oval Office. However, they also recognize the potential for conservative wins in a second Trump term. This includes the chance for another Supreme Court vacancy and the numerous executive branch appointees who shape how laws are enforced.
As a conservative think tanker focusing on family policy, I am excited about the idea of Trump implementing a "baby bonus" as mentioned in a 2023 speech. In addition, others like Inez Feltscher Stepman from the Independent Women's Forum are hoping for a focus on addressing "woke" institutions of higher education and investing in domestic industrial production, as advocated by the American Compass think tank.
While there is no certainty that a second Trump administration will prioritize these ideas, many conservatives are still opposed to the direction that Democrats like Biden want to take the country. Despite any personal controversies surrounding Trump, conservatives remain concerned about the future under Democratic leadership.
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The dynamic was not set in stone from the beginning. A different approach by the Biden administration, focusing on working with Republicans and avoiding large expansions of welfare programs or stimulus spending that increased the deficit, could have attracted some of those voters. The success of bipartisan bills on infrastructure and semiconductor chips hinted at this possibility.
However, with a slim majority in Congress, Biden aimed to emulate FDR by passing trillions in spending. This funding was used to promote progressive initiatives such as electric vehicles, social programs, and an unsuccessful attempt at universal pre-K and child care.
The administration's progressive cultural stances, such as using "birthing person" instead of "mother" in federal budget documents, going on a national tour to support abortion rights, and aiming to defund anti-abortion centers that offer services to pregnant women, have hindered its appeal to cultural conservatives who are wary of Trump.
The perceived disorder at the border, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the turmoil in Ukraine and Gaza do not make it more likely for undecided Republican voters to support the Biden-Harris ticket.
2024 will be a replay of the 2020 election where Biden and Trump went head to head with intense opposition research during the pandemic. The outcome was closer than anticipated and took days to be officially confirmed.
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Since the pandemic is now behind us, the economy has seen improvements, and Roe v. Wade has been overturned by the Supreme Court - all factors that could benefit a Democratic incumbent. However, concerns linger about high inflation, global turmoil, and President Biden's age, leading many Democrats to hope for even odds in November.
It is unlikely that we will discover anything new about the candidates in the next nine months. Supporters of MAGA will eagerly await November 5th, while some Democrats may be excited to oppose Trump due to threats to democracy or the decision on Roe v. Wade. However, for many Americans, including some Republicans, the period between Super Tuesday and Election Day will be a time of gritting their teeth.
The outcome of Super Tuesday, along with the unwillingness of both parties to switch strategies halfway through, suggests that the long journey to Election Day may not be very appealing to anyone except the most dedicated party supporters.
Editor's P/S:
The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming 2024 presidential election, highlighting the challenges facing both Democrats and Republicans. The author's thorough examination of the different factions within the Republican party, ranging from ardent Trump supporters to reluctant and even oppositional voices, offers a nuanced perspective on the party's internal dynamics. The article also sheds light on the concerns and motivations of voters, particularly among suburban Republicans and cultural conservatives, who are torn between their political beliefs and their reservations about Trump's personality and policies.
Overall, the article serves as a valuable resource for understanding the complex dynamics at play in the upcoming election, showcasing the author's deep understanding of American politics and the complexities of the two major political parties.
