Analysis: Trump's Legal Troubles Aren't Doing Him Any Favors

Former President Donald Trump has consistently defied political expectations, recently securing the Republican nomination for president despite facing four criminal indictments.

It may seem that Trump's ability to thrive in the face of legal challenges goes against conventional wisdom, suggesting that his legal troubles could be boosting his political success.

In the primary, it may have seemed like Trump's legal troubles weren't affecting his popularity. However, the general election is a whole different story. There doesn't appear to be much evidence that Trump's legal issues are actually benefiting him with the broader electorate, even if they aren't necessarily hurting him.

When we look at Trump's polling numbers compared to President Joe Biden, it doesn't seem like Trump is making significant gains. If Trump's legal issues were truly helping him, we would expect to see a shift in his favor. Despite the attention being focused on the New York hush money trial, Trump's standing against Biden doesn't seem to be improving.

Biden has actually gained ground in recent months, with both candidates securing their party nominations. During the peak of the Republican primary a few months ago, Biden was trailing by an average of 2 points, but the exact movement in polls has varied.

Currently, the national race between Biden and Trump is extremely close. Some pollsters show Biden ahead within the margin of error (like Marist College and Reuters/Ipsos), while others have Trump leading within the margin of error (such as the New York Times/Siena College and NBC News). Additionally, there are polls that have both candidates tied (like Quinnipiac University).

Looking at the bigger picture, the first criminal indictment of Trump took place in New York in late March 2023. The polls at that time were quite similar to what we see now. Some pollsters had Trump leading within the margin of error (like Ipsos), some had Biden ahead within the margin of error (such as Quinnipiac), and some had the race as a tie (for example, Marquette University Law School).

It seems that there may be some misunderstanding of the polling data and what it actually indicates.

For instance, let's consider the New York hush money case. Recent data shows that the majority of Americans do not believe that Trump committed any illegal actions. According to the most recent CNN/SSRS poll, only 33% of Americans think otherwise. Similarly, most Americans also do not view these potential charges as grounds for disqualifying Trump from the presidency.

In other words, the general public appears to be comfortable with Trump running for president, despite the shadow of this case hanging over him. However, it is important to note that there is a significant logical leap from these data points to concluding that Americans do not perceive Trump's actions as wrong.

Recent polls indicate that a majority of Americans are not pleased with President Trump's actions. About 33% of the public believe that Trump has done something illegal, while another 33% think he has acted unethically, though not necessarily illegally, in relation to the New York case. This means that two-thirds of the population feel that he has crossed a line.

Furthermore, a larger portion of the public (42%) feel that Trump has been behaving inappropriately during his hush money trial compared to those who believe he has been acting appropriately (25%). Trump has faced accusations of violating his gag orders and has been observed giving impromptu speeches outside the courtroom on multiple occasions.

The polling in the New York case stands out because it usually receives the most negative feedback from the public. Many people believe that if the allegations in any of the other three criminal cases against Trump are proven true, he should not be allowed to be president.

In simpler terms, if there was any case where Trump's ****approval ratings might increase, it would be this one.

It's understandable why Trump isn't gaining support when you consider that most Americans don't believe his claim that he is a victim of a political witch hunt.

In a recent CNN poll, 34% of Americans felt that Trump was receiving harsher treatment compared to other criminal defendants. Meanwhile, 34% believed he was being treated more leniently, and 13% thought he was being treated the same. Another poll by NBC showed that 50% of voters think Trump is being held to the same standard as anyone else facing similar accusations, while 43% feel he is unfairly singled out.

In fact, according to polling from the Times, those who are paying closer attention to Trump’s criminal cases are more likely to favor Biden than those who aren’t.

Now, it is worth mentioning that Trump is raising a significant amount of money from these various indictments and court appearances. It is evident that many of Trump’s highest fundraising days have coincided with days when he was in court.

The issue is that he is also spending a significant amount of money on legal fees. According to the Financial Times, Trump's various committees have shelled out over $75 million on legal expenses. In contrast, Biden's campaign has spent much less on legal fees.

It remains uncertain if the funds Trump is raising through appeals to his supporters during his legal challenges are enough to cover the expenses incurred by his committees.

Perhaps the most positive news for Trump is that he is currently tied with Biden in national polls. Additionally, he appears to have an advantage in the swing states that will ultimately decide the next president.

However, it is important to consider the fact that Trump is running against an incumbent who many voters believe is too old and has an approval rating of around 40%. So, it may not be as much of a boastful achievement as it initially seems.

Editor's P/S:

The article presents an intriguing perspective on the relationship between Donald Trump's legal challenges and his political aspirations. While some may have anticipated that his legal troubles would hinder his political success, the article suggests that they may have even contributed to his resilience.

However, the article also highlights that the public's perception of Trump's actions remains largely negative. Despite a significant portion of Americans not believing that Trump has committed illegal or impeachable offenses, a majority still disapprove of his behavior. Furthermore, the article notes that Trump's fundraising efforts, while significant, may not be sufficient to offset the substantial legal fees he has incurred. Overall, the article provides a nuanced analysis of the interplay between Trump's legal challenges and his political standing, suggesting that his ability to navigate these obstacles remains an open question.