Venezuelans are set to vote in a referendum on Sunday to determine whether the country should establish its own state within a significant portion of neighboring Guyana, known for its abundant oil reserves. This move has been strongly condemned by Guyana, who views it as a step towards annexation and has sparked concerns about potential military conflict between the two South American nations.
The disputed area, the densely forested Essequibo region, makes up roughly two-thirds of Guyana's national territory and is approximately the size of Florida. Venezuela has laid claim to this land for a long time, contending that it was part of its territory during the Spanish colonial period. The country rejects a 1899 ruling made by international arbitrators, which established the current boundaries when Guyana was under British colonial rule. The recent discovery of extensive offshore oil fields in the region has further escalated the tensions surrounding the dispute.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has framed the referendum with anti-imperialist sentiment in campaign rallies and through patriotic social media posts, insisting that Venezuela's historical rights to the region have been unjustly denied. Guyana has described the threat of annexation as "existential."
On Sunday, voters were asked whether they support the establishment of a new state in the Essequibo region, granting Venezuelan citizenship to its population, and integrating the state into Venezuelan territory. Despite the likelihood of the vote favoring the government, analysts believe that the practical impact will be minimal. The creation of a Venezuelan state in the Essequibo is seen as unlikely, and it is uncertain how the Venezuelan government would proceed with the outcome. Additionally, any efforts to assert control over the region would face opposition at the international level.
Venezuelans in Caracas take part in a rally during the closing of the campaign for the Essequibo referendum, on December 1.
Miguel Gutierrez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
The increasing tension has led to military movements in the area and aggressive posturing from both countries, with Guyanese leaders comparing the situation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many residents in the predominantly indigenous region are said to be feeling anxious.
"The dispute over the border between Guyana and Venezuela has reached an unprecedented level of tension in the relationship between our countries," stated Guyanese Foreign Minister Robert Persaud in Americas Quarterly on Wednesday. Following a request from Guyana and despite a ruling from the International Court of Justice in The Hague, which ordered Venezuela to refrain from any actions that would alter the current situation in the disputed territory, Venezuelan officials have stated that the referendum will proceed regardless of the court's decision.
The territorial dispute has been under review by the international court since 2018, and a trial is scheduled to take place in the spring. This follows years of unsuccessful negotiations between the two countries through the UN. Guyana insists that the court is the appropriate venue for resolving the dispute, while Venezuela refuses to acknowledge the court's jurisdiction on the issue.
The Essequibo River, pictured on April 10, flows through Guyana's Kurupukari crossing.
Matias Delacroix/AP
A colonial-era dispute
The boundaries of the Essequibo can be traced back to a judgment made in 1899 by an international tribunal in Paris. It awarded the region, then called British Guiana, the majority of the territory between the Orinoco and Essequibo rivers.
Venezuela initially adhered to the ruling until 1962 when the British colony began its journey towards independence and claimed that the tribunal's decision was tainted by fraud. An agreement reached in 1966, just before Guyana gained independence, laid the groundwork for bilateral discussions on the contested area and the eventual involvement of the sluggish International Court of Justice.
Guyana, a sparsely inhabited nation with approximately 800,000 residents and high poverty rates, has undergone rapid changes following the 2015 discovery of oil in the Essequibo region by ExxonMobil. This discovery has led to annual government oil revenue exceeding $1 billion, which has driven extensive infrastructure projects. The country is poised to surpass Venezuela in oil production, a country that has traditionally relied on its own oil reserves, and is on course to become the world's highest per capita oil producer.
Shoppers at the Stabroek Market in Georgetown, Guyana, on April 13, 2023. More than 40% of the population lived on less than $5.50 a day when oil production began.
Venezuela asserts that Guyana does not have the authority to issue drilling concessions in offshore reserves and has labeled Guyana as a puppet of ExxonMobil. President Maduro recently informed his supporters that ExxonMobil holds influence over the government and congress of Guyana.
Even without establishing a state in the disputed territory, which would involve further constitutional steps and likely the use of force, Maduro stands to gain politically from the referendum amidst a challenging re-election campaign. In October, the Venezuelan opposition gained momentum after unifying around Maria Corina Machado, a center-right former legislator who has criticized Maduro for overseeing high inflation and food shortages, in the country's first primary in 11 years.
"A government with authoritarian tendencies facing a difficult political situation is always drawn to seek out a patriotic issue to rally support and I think that's a big part of what Maduro is doing," said Phil Gunson, an analyst based in Caracas with the International Crisis Group.
Prior to the vote, both Venezuela and Guyana have invoked the possibility of military conflict over the region: last week, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali made a show of visiting troops in the Essequibo region and raising a flag on a mountain overlooking the border with Venezuela. "This is not an armed war, for now," the Venezuelan defense minister commented. The Venezuelan military has also announced plans to construct an airstrip to function as a "logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo."
On April 11, 2023, a ship extracted offshore sand to build an artificial island at the mouth of the Demerara River in Georgetown, Guyana. This coastal port will be used for offshore oil production, as Guyana is poised to become the world's top per capita oil producer.
Brazil has announced an increase in military presence along its northern border with Venezuela and Guyana, with a focus on defensive actions. Writing for Foreign Policy last year, Paul J. Angelo of the Council on Foreign Relations and Wazim Mowla, the assistant director for the Caribbean Initiative at the Atlantic Councils Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, termed the border dispute a "powder keg," and warned that Russian President Vladmir Putins actions in Ukraine could embolden Maduros territorial ambitions.
Guyanese Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo echoed the comparison at a news conference last week.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro addresses the media following a meeting with FIFA president Gianni Infantino at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on October 15, 2021. (Photo by FEDERICO PARRA/AFP via Getty Images)
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"I dont know if they are miscalculating based on what happened in Crimea and other places, but it would be a grave miscalculation on their part," Jagdeo said.
"He added that we must take all necessary measures to protect our country, which includes collaborating with others," citing a recent visit by US military officials to discuss ongoing joint training exercises.
Gunson, of the International Crisis Group, stated that he believes Venezuela is unlikely to invade the Essequibo without the support of its allies. However, he also warned that domestic pressure on Maduro to act on the results of the referendum may lead him to provoke skirmishes along the border, especially in the lead-up to the presidential election next year.
Gunson noted that the belligerence exists on both sides of the border, and with neither side willing to back down, there is a risk of potential military clashes in the slightly dangerous territory.
