5 Reasons Why Fallout 5 Will Definitely Be Set in the Same Universe as New Vegas and Fallout 4

Highlights

Bethesda has a rough outline for Fallout 5, suggesting they have long-term plans for the franchise beyond Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6.

Fallout 5's potential setting in post-apocalyptic San Francisco is suggested by clues found in previous games and Bethesda's foreshadowing techniques.

The significant references to San Francisco in Fallout 4 indicate Bethesda's intention to plant the idea in players' minds as a possibility for Fallout 5's future storyline.

With Bethesda's highly anticipated game Starfield finally released, it's only a matter of time before they shift their focus to their other beloved franchises. The recent FTC court case involving Microsoft suggests that fans will have to wait until 2026 or beyond for the release of The Elder Scrolls 6. As for Fallout 5, it is slated to arrive sometime after that, but it's currently too distant to speculate about an exact release date.

Nevertheless, the development team has not been idle. In 2021, Todd Howard confirmed that Bethesda already has a rough outline for Fallout 5. It's even possible that their plans for the next installment go further back, with hints from New Vegas and Fallout 4 indicating that the game might be set in a post-apocalyptic San Francisco.

Fallout: New Vegas Almost Was Fallout: San Francisco

The connection between San Francisco and Fallout: New Vegas is less strong compared to the link between the city and Fallout 4. However, it could provide insight into how long Bethesda has been considering creating a game set in San Francisco. According to an internet rumor, Obsidian wanted to feature the destruction of San Francisco in the backstory of New Vegas, but Bethesda intervened and prevented it. It appears that in an earlier version of Fallout 3 known as "Van Buren," Black Isle Studios had planned for the Enclave to destroy San Francisco shortly after the events of Fallout 2. However, this lore is not necessarily relevant to the current Fallout universe since "Van Buren" was never released.

Before the release of Fallout: New Vegas, Feargus Urquhart, the CEO of Obsidian Entertainment, mentioned that the game was initially supposed to take place in a different city. Obsidian had proposed this idea to Bethesda, but the latter wanted to save that setting for another purpose, suggesting that Bethesda's plans for Fallout 5 might have been in the works for a while. Urquhart did not disclose which city he was referring to, although San Francisco remains a possible consideration.

It is noteworthy that San Francisco, despite being a prominent location in Fallout 2, is never mentioned in New Vegas. While various Fallout 2 locations such as Vault City, New Reno, the NCR capital, Boneyard, Arroyo, The Den, Redding, Klamath, Broken Hills, Modoc, and Navarro are all acknowledged in Fallout: New Vegas, the absence of references to San Francisco stands out. However, this could be attributed to the possibility that Obsidian was instructed to reserve the city for future use.

San Francisco References in Fallout 4

Several fans have observed that within Fallout 4's "Atomic Command" holotape game, the Golden Gate Bridge can be spotted, alongside the iconic Las Vegas sign, prominent landmarks of Washington DC, and Boston's Custom House Tower. However, this mini-game also encompasses additional notable structures such as the Seattle Space Needle, Mount Rushmore, the St. Lewis Gateway Arch, and The Statue of Liberty. Consequently, the inclusion of the bridge does not bear significant implications.

Fallout 4 features numerous significant allusions to San Francisco, particularly in connection with Conrad Kellogg. Kellogg, a henchman of the Institute, kickstarts the storyline by murdering the player's spouse and abducting their child, Shaun. Throughout the investigation, players discover Kellogg's preference for an exclusive brand of cigars called San Francisco Sunsets.

As players delve into Kellogg's memories at the Memory Den, they uncover that he was initially a mercenary associated with the New California Republic. After gaining recognition, he caught the attention of the Shi, who offered him employment as a guard and enforcer. Eventually, Kellogg married and relocated to San Francisco, where glimpses of the Golden Gate Bridge can be seen in his recollections.

Kellogg's association with the Shi indicates their continued influence in modern Fallout. The Shi, a group based in San Francisco's Chinatown, are descendants of Chinese submarine crew members stranded after the Great War. They hold significant technological power, similar to the Institute in Fallout 4, and one of the endings in Fallout 2 shows the Shi emerging as a major force in California.

In addition, the Shi's main rivals are also featured in Fallout 4's DLC. The "Trip to the Stars" side quest in Nuka-World introduces players to the Hubologists, an eccentric UFO cult. Although some members managed to relocate to New England, the cult originated in Fallout 2's San Francisco, where they operate out of the ruins of the Golden Gate Bridge. They also have members in the NCR. While the cut Fallout 2 endings intended for the cult's destruction through failed space travel endeavors, Fallout 4: Nuka-World reveals that the Hubologists are still active as of 2287.

Fallout 4's incorporation of the Shi and the presence of Hubologists could simply be considered whimsical homages to the earlier games. However, the frequency with which Fallout 4 references San Francisco and various San Francisco-based groups is intriguing. One might even speculate that Bethesda intended to subtly hint at the idea of San Francisco, potentially as a foreshadowing element.

Bethesda's Pattern of Foreshadowing

Bethesda has a history of utilizing one game to pave the way for future developments. As an illustration, in The Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion, non-playable characters engage in discussions about rumors surrounding wizards spearheading anti-imperial boycotts in the Summerset Isles. These wizards are believed to be none other than Skyrim's Thalmor, who opportunistically capitalized on the chaos ensuing from the Oblivion Crisis to establish the Third Aldmeri Dominion.

Meanwhile, in the side quest "The Replicated Man" in Fallout 3, players were tasked with investigating a runaway android. This quest introduced various elements such as the Commonwealth, the Institute, the Railroad, the concept of mind wiping by the Railroad, and the existence of human-like androids known as Synths. The Commonwealth is also briefly mentioned in Fallout 3's DLCs, Broken Steel and The Pitt.

At the time, the inclusion of Altmer wizards in Oblivion and the introduction of the Commonwealth in Fallout 3 may have appeared to be simple world-building. However, fans now understand that these were actually significant hints at what was to come in the next game. In Fallout 4, the references to San Francisco are much more prominent than the aforementioned examples. This could potentially mean that Bethesda is planning for Fallout 5 to be set in the Golden City, or it could just be an elaborate misdirection by the studio to tease Fallout fans.