Western officials concerned about Ukrainian forces' challenging winter as Russia plots fresh attacks on infrastructure
Ukrainian forces brace for a challenging winter and a tough year ahead, as Western officials and a senior US military official caution against significant progress on the frontlines in the coming months, according to intelligence assessments obtained by CNN
Ukrainian forces are bracing for a challenging winter and a tough year ahead, with Western intelligence assessments indicating little expected movement on the frontlines in the coming months, according to two Western officials and a senior US military official who spoke to CNN.
In the short term, Western intelligence agencies anticipate that Russia will escalate its targeting of civilian infrastructure, such as electrical facilities, in an effort to increase the suffering of the civilian population during the cold winter months.
Ukrainian forces have made limited progress on the battlefield in recent weeks, with their forward movement restricted to just one mile in some areas and only a few miles in others. Western intelligence assessments suggest that the frontlines are unlikely to see much change in the coming months.
One ongoing challenge holding back the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the lack of air support for ground operations. The promised F-16 fighter aircraft from NATO are not anticipated to arrive soon enough, or in sufficient numbers, to impact the battlefield situation for some time, with estimates suggesting it may take well into next year before they can make a difference.
Ahead of 2024, NATO allies are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch a wider offensive after his anticipated win in the upcoming presidential elections in his country. Despite this, Ukraine is positioned to resist any potential Russian aggression, with a senior Western official noting that they hold the advantage as resilient defenders.
The long-anticipated ground counteroffensive in the south and east has been largely thwarted by Russian defenses, but Ukrainian military has achieved significant progress in other areas. By launching attacks on Russia's Black Sea Fleet with long-range missiles and sea drones, the fleet has been pushed back dozens of miles, opening up crucial shipping lanes for the transportation of grain and other products vital to Ukraine's economy. However, Western intelligence assessments warn that battlefield movement may become stagnant until well into 2024, edging the war closer to the "frozen conflict" that plays to Putin's advantage, a scenario feared by many Russia observers.
The Russian president may be considering the 2024 US presidential election in his war planning as well. The US currently lacks direct intelligence on Putin's intentions and whether he may be prolonging the war in anticipation of a Donald Trump or Republican presidential victory. However, top officials in Western national security, intelligence, and diplomatic circles view next year's election as a significant factor that could shape Putin's decisions in Ukraine, making it less likely that the war will be resolved before the end of next year. A US official, speaking to CNN, expressed confidence that Putin is intentionally delaying until the 2024 election. Another source familiar with the intelligence described the election as a significant consideration for the US, Ukraine, and Europe.
The White House is issuing warnings about the US's ability to support Ukraine without additional assistance from Congress. Amid ongoing negotiations on Capitol Hill regarding funding for Ukraine and Israel, as well as changes to border policy, the White House cautioned that time is running out and they will struggle to support Ukraine if more funding is not approved by the end of the year.
"Once again, as I've mentioned several times, the window of opportunity is shrinking. We believe we have until the end of the year before it becomes increasingly difficult to continue supporting Ukraine. And the end of the year is fast approaching," stated National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
He further emphasized, "These figures are not arbitrary. We require that funding."
CNNs Kylie Atwood, Natasha Bertrand, Jennifer Hansler, Kevin Liptak and Sam Fossum contributed to this report.
