US Urges Extension of Gaza Ceasefire Despite Looming Threat of Renewed Conflict
Despite the fragile pause in Israel's offensive against Hamas in Gaza, the possibility of renewed hostilities looms large With no direct communication between the two sides and their determination to annihilate each other, the current ceasefire may eventually unravel Additionally, the US aid package for Israel might face delays, pushing its implementation to next year
The delicate ceasefire in Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza has resulted in the release of 58 hostages, despite the lack of direct communication between the two sides and their mutual desire to destroy each other. It remains to be seen how long this temporary agreement will hold, allowing for the return of more abductees from Hamas attacks and the delivery of much-needed aid into Gaza.
While Americans celebrated Thanksgiving, a flurry of events unfolded in the Middle East, leading to poignant reunions between hostages and their families. However, the ongoing predicament of the majority still held captive, alongside that of Palestinian civilians, highlights the devastating impact of the conflict. Moreover, with President Joe Biden's return to Washington following his holiday weekend in Nantucket, Massachusetts, there are growing indications of medium- and longer-term factors that point to the potential escalation of the fighting - making it even more entrenched and costly.
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Truce gives Gazans moment to breathe - and reveals scale of devastation
There is optimism that the deal will not end as scheduled on Monday after a four-day span of releases. Hamas is pushing for additional days of Israeli strikes pauses in exchange for the release of 10 hostages at a time. The US and Qatar are working to use the pause as momentum to achieve a more permanent end to the fighting and free more hostages. Both Israel and Hamas have reasons to continue the truce in the short term. Netanyahu may see political relief as more hostages are released, while Hamas benefits from the pause in Israeli airstrikes and ground operations to regroup. The US is also seeking the return of Americans held or unaccounted for and addressing the humanitarian and political implications of continued fighting in Gaza.
Why the Gaza pause may eventually unravel
Three Palestinian college students were shot in Burlington, Vermont, amplifying the pain felt far away from Gaza and Israel. The motive is yet to be established by the police, but civil rights groups are urging authorities to investigate for potential bias by the shooter. This attack is part of a recent surge in antisemitism, causing American Jews to feel less safe.
A prolonged cease in hostilities would align with humanitarian objectives, but there is limited time before Israel or Hamas may alter their strategic plans. This leaves the fate of the remaining hostages, which includes a significant number of young males and some Israeli security personnel, in a state of uncertainty.
The current scenario allows Hamas to once again dictate the pace of the conflict by using hostages as a bargaining chip to influence Israeli responses and military actions. The pause is complicating Israel's commitment to eradicating the Islamist movement, and the fate of the remaining hostages versus the broader objectives of the Israeli military will increasingly present a stark moral dilemma for the Netanyahu government.
The lopsided nature of the exchanges, with three Palestinians released from Israeli prisons for each hostage, may become unsustainable for Netanyahu's government, which relies on a coalition of hawkish far-right parties. As the number of hostages decreases, Hamas may lose motivation to free large groups to retain leverage. From the US perspective, the uncertainty is how much pressure Biden will impose on Israel to continue the pause, and if the pause ends, whether US support for Israel's right to target Hamas would remain as strong as it was before the truce. The delicate US-Israel dynamic explains why it makes sense for Hamas to hold onto some American hostages in the hope of forcing Biden to constrain Israel. Former US Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges stated that keeping American hostages will keep the US focused and maintain pressure on Israel, and a return to battle may weaken Israel's already shaky international backing.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan speaks during the daily briefing in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on November 13, 2023.
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4-year-old Israeli American hostage is released
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed President Biden's delicate position in responding to recent conflict without specifying a course of action. Sullivan stated on CNN's "State of the Union" that Biden believes in a nation's right to self-defense, while also emphasizing the protection of civilians, the distinction between terrorists and civilians, and access to humanitarian aid in any military operations.
Although the strategic decisions ahead pose a significant challenge, the recent releases of hostages and entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza have brought a sense of optimism during this devastating conflict. One of the released individuals was 4-year-old Abigail Edan, marking the first US citizen to be freed since the truce began. Despite the positive developments, President Biden acknowledged the "terrible trauma" that Abigail had experienced after the loss of her parents. The president's address provided a brief moment of relief in a time of political turmoil. Nevertheless, with low approval ratings and mounting criticism, Biden faces a difficult path ahead, particularly if the conflict in Gaza reignites.
Biden has faced strong criticism from within the Democratic Party for refusing to advocate for a permanent ceasefire in a conflict that has exposed divisions in his electoral coalition. Progressive younger voters, whose support is crucial for Biden in the upcoming year, have been outspoken in their criticism of Israel's response to the terrorist attack. Additionally, anger is mounting among Arab Americans, a key demographic for the Democrats in the swing state of Michigan.
However, the president is also facing criticism from the right. GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie acknowledged that Biden deserved some credit for brokering the deal, but expressed concern to CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union" that Biden was relying too heavily on Netanyahu.
US aid package for Israel may be delayed until next year
Christie cautioned that Biden was veering in the wrong direction by expressing his hope for the continuation of the truce. "He should not be doing that publicly, in my opinion," stated the former New Jersey governor. "His statements should solely support Israel's efforts to protect its territorial integrity and the safety of its 9 million citizens."
Biden has been urging Congress for weeks to approve $14.3 billion in emergency assistance for Israel. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer informed his Democratic colleagues in a letter on Sunday that he plans to bring a national security package to the floor as early as next week, which includes funding for Israel and Ukraine. However, passing such a measure would still encounter significant obstacles in the GOP-controlled House.
The US Capitol is illuminated by the setting sun in Washington, DC, on October 19, 2023. The Republican party faced turmoil as their chosen candidate to lead the US House of Representatives struggled to secure the position, and a proposed interim speaker was derailed by disputes, accusations, and threats. (Photo by SAMUEL CORUM/AFP via Getty Images)
Sen. Schumer plans to present a bill linking funding for Israel and Ukraine to the Senate next week. The House Republicans passed their own bill, but added cuts to IRS funding in a move they knew would not be accepted by Senate Democrats. Some Republicans, including those who support Donald Trump, are against efforts to combine the bill with a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine. The narrow House GOP majority, which is influenced by hardliners, puts any potential package at risk. Republicans may only support the bill if it includes concessions from Democrats on the southern border.
House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner expressed doubt that the measure would pass this year, citing the White House's policy on the southern border as a current impediment. Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Murphy suggested that Israeli aid could be conditioned on the protection of Palestinian civilians, drawing attention to the consistent practice of conditioning aid based on compliance with US and international law.
Political strategizing in Israel, the United States, and beyond is not considering the post-war outlook for the region. The Biden administration is restating its support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, despite it seeming more elusive than ever after the October 7 attacks. Israeli President Isaac Herzog expressed his backing for an "international coalition" to oversee Gaza after the eradication of Hamas in the war during an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer. However, these plans are for the distant future. The immediate concern is how long the war will be halted and if hostages will continue to be freed and kept safe.
