US Secretary of State Blinken's crucial trip to Middle East aims to keep pressure on Israel amidst escalating tensions

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to meet with the Israeli government in Tel Aviv this week, marking his fifth visit since the October 7 attack by Hamas. This is part of a series of meetings in a weeklong trip to the region, as the United States makes a continuous effort to stay in touch with Israeli officials and keep their war efforts in check during the ongoing conflict.

According to a US official speaking to CNN, progress with Israel usually happens after a visit from Blinken or a call from President Biden. The official stated that the Israelis sometimes agree with the US and sometimes they don't, leading to negotiations. The official also mentioned that there are "at least a dozen live issues we are pushing for," including protecting Palestinian civilians and ensuring aid reaches where it is needed most.

The Israeli government's shifts have been described as slow and incremental by US officials, who have acknowledged that there are "gaps" between Israel's intentions and actions. According to a second US official speaking to CNN, close allies must have tough conversations in which they ask challenging questions, such as Israel's objectives, approach, and considerations.

Blinken's fifth trip holds high stakes as America's allies, who initially supported Israel at the beginning of the war, have become increasingly critical as the civilian casualties in Gaza mount. These partners are seeking proof that Israel is heeding the US' advice, and, given the escalating tensions in the region, they are looking to Blinken to ensure that Israel has a viable plan to bring an end to the war, amid worries of a larger conflict.

Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, stated on Thursday before the delegation departed: "We don't expect every conversation on this trip to be easy."

Primarily, Blinken's regional message can be categorized into two main objectives: advocating for American influence on Israel's actions in the Gaza war, while also striving to contain the conflict's spread within the region as tensions escalate.

Flurry of visits

American officials emphasize the importance of maintaining frequent communication between top administration officials and senior Israeli counterparts. Over the last month, Israel has received visits from national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (prior to his hospitalization), and Amos Hochstein, a special envoy focused on energy issues with close connections to Israel and Lebanon. In their public interactions, each official has aimed to assert US interests while respecting Israel's autonomy.

Administration officials maintain that the continuous involvement of the United States has kept Israel's actions in check, preventing prolonged, more devastating, and deadlier conflicts. They argue that without American influence, Israel could have remained in Gaza longer and transitioned to a lower-level fight at a slower pace. Additionally, they claim that Israel may not have been as proactive in delivering aid to Gaza if it were not for U.S. intervention. Following a lengthy meeting with Israel's war Cabinet in mid-October, Blinken proposed an initial plan for humanitarian aid to be delivered to Gaza. Furthermore, during Sullivan's visit to Israel in December, it was announced that Israel would allow the Kerem Shalom crossing to be used for aid delivery to Gaza, as advocated by the U.S.

White House officials have been expressing their desire for Israel to transition its military operations into a "low-intensity" phase focused on targeted operations against Hamas leaders, rather than heavy bombardment. They hope this will pave the way for aid to be distributed more effectively in Gaza and for residents to return to their heavily damaged homes.

Blinken's team appears hesitant to outline specific achievements expected from their upcoming trip. However, they anticipate that regional leaders will be more willing to address a range of issues during the meetings, as the conflict enters its third month and the number of Palestinian casualties continues to rise, exceeding 22,000.

Blinken has already visited Turkey, Greece, Jordan, and Qatar on his trip. Prior to Israel, he will have meetings in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Following Tel Aviv, he will visit the West Bank and Egypt. "There is no replacement for being in the region, traveling from country to country, and gathering information from one leader to share with another," stated the first US official.

Day after debate

The prioritization of efforts to release the remaining 100 hostages currently held by Hamas and other groups will be a key focus during various stops. In the discussions in the West Bank, there may be tense moments concerning the future of Palestinian governance, particularly with the Palestinian Authority being led by the widely unpopular President Mahmoud Abbas.

In the wake of the debate, Netanyahu, who has dismissed the idea of involving the Palestinian Authority, will undoubtedly be a significant figure. However, the US is advocating for a revitalization and empowerment of the Palestinian Authority. Blinken has outlined the US stance on post-war Gaza governance, asserting that Israel should not occupy or reduce the territory. Additionally, the State Department has recently criticized two far-right Israeli Cabinet members for suggesting that Palestinians should be removed from Gaza.

As ongoing tit-for-tat exchanges persist between Hezbollah and Israel, Washington is closely monitoring the situation. Recently, the US military targeted and eliminated a senior militant from an Iran-backed group in Baghdad, marking a limited response to more than 120 attacks on American and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria by Iran-supported proxy groups since October 17th.

The Houthis in Yemen, armed and supported by Iran, are causing significant disruptions to the global economy by threatening shipping in the Red Sea. Following increased attacks, the US responded with a deadly counterstrike on December 31, sinking three Houthi boats and killing 10 militants. The Biden administration has since warned of potential military strikes against the Houthis if the attacks persist.

Discussions between Blinken and Arab leaders will largely focus on the threat posed by Iran, which experts and officials suspect is trying to incite conflict without instigating all-out war. Though Lebanon-based Hezbollah, also backed by Tehran, is another major concern, with tensions on Israel's northern border posing a risk for escalation. While officials have stated that Hezbollah is not actively seeking war, recent days have seen an increased chance of a potential conflict with Israel.

While touring the region, Blinken will seek support from various partners to engage in backchannel communications with Iran in an effort to prevent the escalation of conflicts, a senior official from the State Department announced on Friday. Direct and indirect communications with Iran, including through China, have been ongoing since the early stages of the war. "These trips are just one part of a broader and ongoing dialogue," stated the first US official. "They are never isolated events, but rather occur within the context of numerous discussions."

The war in Gaza is at the center of the widespread violence, making Blinken's meetings in Israel the focal point of the trip. "We will make requests, advocate, but not direct, as it is not our role to instruct [Israel] on what to do," stated another US official. "And it would not be effective."