High Alert: US Teeters on the Brink of Being Dragged into a Middle East War

An American navy vessel successfully intercepts missiles launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen, while two US bases in Syria face direct fire. Additionally, US forces in Iraq are targeted by drones and rockets.

While Gaza is currently the site of ongoing conflict, there are alarming indications of potential trouble across the Middle East. To dissuade Iran, along with its allies Syria and Hezbollah, from initiating further confrontations with Israel, the United States has positioned two carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, in preparation for potential deployment, two thousand US Marines are on high alert.

US President Joe Biden devoted a total of seven hours to his visit in Israel on Wednesday, unequivocally expressing his unwavering backing for Israel's military operation in Gaza. However, he urged Israeli leaders to exercise caution and not let their actions be clouded by anger. Biden reiterated this sentiment in his Thursday evening speech from the White House, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a clear perspective. Additionally, Biden has committed to providing Israel with a significant increase in financial aid, amounting to billions of dollars.

US President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on October 18.

Miriam Alster/AP

Before that, Secretary of State Antony Blinken dedicated seven hours to a meeting with Israel's war cabinet, distinct from the regular Israeli cabinet.

Meanwhile, the United States is currently engaged in an extensive operation to airlift substantial quantities of ammunition and equipment in aid of the Israeli war endeavor.

The United States is rapidly approaching the potential for direct engagement in a Middle Eastern conflict, signaling a significant departure from previous military operations targeting Saddam Hussein's forces in Kuwait in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Unlike these prior instances where months of meticulous planning and preparatory measures were executed, the current reality sees the US and its allies grappling to react to unfolding circumstances beyond their immediate influence.

And in this dangerous terrain, suddenly the vulnerabilities of the sprawling American military presence across the Middle East are glaringly obvious.

Regional rivalries

In Syria, the US has deployed troops in both northeastern and southeastern regions. Syria is a complex battleground with a wide range of actors, including Bashar al-Assad's army, Russian and Turkish forces, Iranian-backed groups, Hezbollah, various anti-regime factions, Kurdish militias, and lingering ISIS elements. Moreover, Israel frequently conducts airstrikes in Syria, notably targeting airports in Aleppo and Damascus. These strikes aim to hinder Iran from transporting weapons and ammunition. Additionally, the US maintains a military presence in Iraq where numerous well-equipped and experienced Iranian-backed militias operate with considerable autonomy from the government in Baghdad.

Iran, despite enduring harsh sanctions imposed by the US for many years, has managed to successfully develop a diverse range of advanced weaponry. Through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran has acquired crucial combat expertise through its involvement in conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, it has extended support to the Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian government, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad by offering training and supplying them with arms.

President Joe Biden delivers a televised speech from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., addressing his strategies towards resolving the Israel-Hamas conflict, providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, and demonstrating ongoing support to Ukraine in their battle against Russia. The speech took place on October 19, 2023. (Source: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/Pool)

Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Biden makes the case for wartime aid to Israel and Ukraine in primetime address

Following the January 2020 US assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC, Iran retaliated by launching a series of missile strikes on a US base located in Iraq.

Unlike the expensive relocation process for American soldiers or Marines from the US to the Middle East, an IRGC soldier can conveniently travel to Baghdad, Damascus, or Beirut by simply boarding a bus.

Despite having the strongest military in the world, the US has learned from its failures in Vietnam and Afghanistan that military power does not guarantee victory against a determined and resourceful enemy. This lesson is especially relevant in today's Middle East, where there are multiple foes to contend with.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has issued multiple warnings during his recent visits to Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad, and Doha. He has cautioned that if Israel persists with its offensive in Gaza, the possibility of new conflicts emerging cannot be dismissed as mere rhetoric. There may be more to his words than meets the eye.

Protests against Israel and US

Amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza, a palpable sense of anger engulfs the Middle East. Across Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, Iran, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, and other nations, protests have erupted against Israel. However, a significant portion of this fury is also directed towards the United States, which has consistently stood as Israel's most vocal, steadfast, and benevolent supporter.

Despite being Washington's closest Arab ally, King Abdullah of Jordan decided to cancel the planned summit with President Biden in Amman. The decision came after the tragic explosion at Gaza's Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. It is apparent that both King Abdullah and the other participants of the summit, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, dreaded being associated with an American leader who strongly supported Israel while the death toll in Gaza continued to rise.

Although the United States still has support from autocratic leaders in the region, the sentiment on the streets remains completely different.

In the aftermath of a devastating explosion at Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, which claimed the lives of many people, anger has intensified. Palestinian authorities are blaming Israel for targeting the hospital, while Israel denies any involvement. During a meeting in Cairo on Thursday, President Sisi and King Abdullah released a joint statement expressing concern that if the conflict continues to escalate, it could result in a catastrophic situation for the entire region.

In Rafah, located in the southern part of the Gaza Strip, a smoke plume emerges as a result of Israeli bombardment on October 19, 2023. (Photo by SAID KHATIB / AFP) (Photo by SAID KHATIB/AFP via Getty Images)

Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images

They are tasked with viewing 'the worst imaginable images' of the Israel-Hamas war. It's taking a heavy toll

Reporting from the Lebanon-Israel border, which serves as a tripwire for potential conflict, I have witnessed Hezbollah fighters targeting Israeli army positions on a daily basis. Employing guided missiles, they aim to damage tanks, troops, surveillance equipment, and communication systems. Furthermore, the military branches of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad occasionally launch rockets into Israel. In response, the Israelis retaliate by targeting what they claim to be Hezbollah's military infrastructure. Tragically, both combatants and civilians have been killed or wounded on both sides. While this situation undoubtedly keeps everyone on edge, it has not yet escalated into a full-scale war or drawn the US into the conflict. However, the risk of this happening remains very real.

The presence of American carrier groups just beyond the horizon serves as a deterrent against Iran, Hezbollah, and other potential aggressors. However, in the event that these entities cross a certain threshold and provoke a response from the US, all previous assurances and predictions become uncertain.

At present, all the necessary elements align for the longstanding conflict between Israel and the Palestinians to escalate into a significant regional catastrophe. Alarmingly, the United States finds itself potentially trapped in the midst of this upheaval.

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