US intelligence assessment reveals 87% decline of Russian troops since the beginning of Ukraine war
Russia has suffered a significant loss of troops and tanks since the start of the Ukraine war, with a staggering 87% decrease in active-duty ground troops and two-thirds reduction in tanks, as revealed by a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress
According to a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress, Russia has suffered a significant loss of 87 percent of its active-duty ground troops and two-thirds of its tanks since the invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to continuing the war as it nears its two-year anniversary, despite warnings from US officials that Ukraine is still at risk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and it is unlikely that Kyiv will make substantial progress in the coming months.
The assessment was sent to Capitol Hill on Monday as some Republicans hesitated to provide additional funding for Ukraine, prompting the Biden administration to launch a full-court press to secure supplemental funding through Congress.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Washington on Tuesday, meeting with US lawmakers and President Joe Biden in a desperate bid to secure vital military and economic aid for Ukraine to maintain the fight against Russia.
Despite the heavy losses, Russia has managed to sustain its war effort by lowering recruitment standards and using older equipment from Soviet-era stockpiles. However, the war has significantly set back Russia's 15-year effort to modernize its ground force.
According to the assessment, out of the 360,000 troops that entered Ukraine, including both contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield. Additionally, the assessment shows that 2,200 out of 3,500 tanks and 4,400 out of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have been destroyed, resulting in a 32 percent loss rate.
In late November, Russia has suffered a decrease of over 25% in its pre-invasion ground forces equipment stockpiles, according to the assessment. This reduction has resulted in a decrease in the complexity and scale of Russian offensive operations, which have failed to achieve significant advances in Ukraine since early 2022. CNN has contacted the Russian Embassy in Washington for a comment.
The political environment in Washington presents the greatest danger to Ukraine. Some Republicans are adamantly opposed to providing additional funding, while Senate Republicans are insisting on incorporating it into a broader spending package that includes funding for Israel, Taiwan, and the US southern border. The Biden administration is cautioning that the US will soon run out of money for Ukraine.
Senator J.D. Vance, a Republican from Ohio, dismissed the idea that Ukraine could push Russia back to its 1991 borders as absurd during an appearance on CNN's State of the Union. He emphasized the need for clarity on the goals and the specific outcomes that the proposed $61 billion in funding for Ukraine is intended to achieve as compared to the previously allocated $100 billion.
Newly released intelligence reported by CNN indicates that Russia believes that prolonging the military stalemate during the winter will weaken Western support for Ukraine, ultimately giving Russia the upper hand despite ongoing Russian losses and shortages in personnel, munitions, and equipment, according to a spokesperson from the National Security Council.
"Since initiating its offensive in October, we estimate that the Russian military has sustained over 13,000 casualties along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis and more than 220 combat vehicle losses, which is equivalent to the equipment of 6 maneuver battalions," said Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the NSC, in an interview with CNN.
Prior to the invasion, Russia's total military force consisted of about 900,000 active-duty troops, including various personnel. However, since the invasion began, Russia has revealed plans to expand its armed forces to 1.5 million. The Russian Ministry of Defense has implemented multiple rounds of conscription, including the recent fall conscription cycle on October 1.
Additionally, Russia has relied on utilizing convicts enlisted by the Wagner Group, and has extended the age limit for certain citizens to remain in the reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
