Unrelenting Conflict: Russia's Ruthless Assault on Avdiivka Shakes Eastern Ukraine

Russian forces have initiated a robust and extensive assault on the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, resulting in escalated clashes. However, Ukrainian officials, analysts, and geolocation data from social media indicate that significant advancements by the Russian forces have not been achieved thus far. "The ongoing conflict has persisted for a span of four days," highlighted Vitalii Barabash, the head of Avdiivka's military administration, during an interview on Ukrainian national television. He further emphasized the continuous and intense nature of the conflict, involving both small arms engagements and artillery exchanges.

Russia has launched a relentless assault on the city, making use of all of their available resources, in an attempt to surround Ukrainian fighters. Regrettably, their strikes have not only targeted the front line settlements but also those located further towards the rear. Rather than engaging directly, they have concentrated their efforts on attacking the city's flanks from both the south and north. Their objective is to encircle the city, and they are actively working towards achieving this goal.

On October 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the media in a conference alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg prior to the NATO defense ministers' meeting.

According to Barabash, Russia is launching numerous ongoing attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donetsk oblast, using tanks and armored personnel carriers for support.

"On October 10th, during the launch of the offensive, a significant number of vehicles were utilized. However, on the following day, there was a decrease in vehicle usage. Yesterday, armored vehicles were once again deployed, this time in columns, accompanied by a large number of personnel. Additionally, fresh reinforcements were brought in," he reported.

Verified footage from geolocated sources on social media, known for their reliable open-source intelligence (OSINT), displayed Ukrainian forces engaging Russian vehicles. The Ukrainian forces employed artillery, US-donated Javelin shoulder-launched missiles, and drones during the attack. Some sources suggested that Russia suffered the loss of more than a dozen armored vehicles in this engagement.

CNN was unable to independently confirm the accuracy of the videos and their alleged content. However, Ukrainian officials have claimed that they have successfully resisted the Russian advancement, managing to destroy numerous vehicles in the process.

"It is an extremely challenging and tense situation, but the Ukrainian military has firmly held their positions for four consecutive days," Barabash commented. "I am confident that they will continue to persevere. They are not ordinary individuals, but rather formidable beings."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted that Ukrainian troops were effectively deterring Russian forces in Avdiivka. He emphasized the significance of Ukrainian courage and unity in determining the outcome of the ongoing war, urging everyone to bear this in mind.

In his evening speech, Zelensky mentioned that in recent days, units stationed along the eastern front line have successfully neutralized numerous armored vehicles belonging to the occupying forces. He expressed his gratitude towards the bravery and endurance demonstrated by every soldier and unit involved.

In Brussels on Wednesday, October 11, 2023, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the media alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO headquarters. The photograph shows the two leaders engaged in conversation during the press conference. (Photo credit: AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)

Virginia Mayo/AP

Ukraine's Zelensky seeks to rally Western support as attention shifts to Middle East

The Avdiivka attack coincides with Ukraine's summer counteroffensive, which is progressing slower than initially expected.

Initially, some analysts believed the Russian maneuver aimed to compel Kyiv to redirect its forces from the southern and eastern front lines. However, Ukrainian officials state that the objective is to make territorial gains while Kyiv's attention is focused elsewhere.

Avdiivka is perceived by the enemy as a chance to secure a significant triumph and shift the balance of the war, according to Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesperson for the southern frontline group of forces known as "Tavria." While previously considered inconsequential during the initial invasion, the seizure or encirclement of Avdiivka now represents the maximum attainable objective for the enemy at this point. As a result, they are utilizing aviation and persisting with their offensive operations.

Geolocation of imagery from credible OSINT accounts indicates that Russia managed to make advances on the city's flanks but did not achieve a significant breakthrough. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as of October 12, Russian forces have not secured any major breakthroughs near Avdiivka and are unlikely to immediately surround Ukrainian forces in the city. ISW's daily bulletin on Friday states that Russian forces have captured approximately 4.52 square kilometers of territory around Avdiivka from multiple directions since October 10.

On October 5, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at his yearly gathering with the participants of the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, Russia. During his two-day visit to the Black Sea resort, President Putin engaged in discussions with both foreign and local political experts. (Photo by Contributor/Getty Images)

Contributor/Getty Images

Putin banks on wavering support for Ukraine, amid a race against time

CNN was unable to independently confirm the authenticity of those videos or verify the analysis of the footage conducted by the ISW.

Despite the absence of any significant advancement, the Russian attacks are having a detrimental effect on the approximately 1,600 civilians who remain in the besieged city.

During the escalation, we ceased the provision of humanitarian aid and food to the city, focusing solely on ensuring evacuation. The city is fully stocked with an ample supply of food, hygiene products, and medical supplies to last for several months. Barabash confirmed that our hospital sustained significant damage from cannon artillery and two rockets, resulting in serious damage to the central building. However, all individuals are alive and accounted for. In the past four days, there has been one confirmed fatality and four injuries. Additionally, two individuals are missing and presumed trapped under the debris of a collapsed building.

People died under the rubble without any doubt, although their bodies are not visible to us physically," he stated.

Avdiivka, a city in close proximity to Donetsk city airport, has been the battleground between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists since 2014. It is perceived as a highly fortified stronghold by both Ukrainian and Russian forces, with extensive fortifications constructed over the past eight years.

Some analysts and officials have compared Avdiivka to the city of Mariupol, suggesting that even if encircled, it would be able to hold out against Russian forces for several weeks.