Before President Joe Biden left the White House for the Middle East, a hospital in Gaza was hit by a deadly blast. This incident sparked a frantic effort within the administration to identify the responsible party, coinciding with the eruption of street protests against Israel across the Arab world.
After hours of review, President Biden and his national security team were not yet sufficiently confident to definitively absolve Israel of responsibility. However, the initial information assessed strongly indicated that the Israelis were not accountable for the attack. This provided the necessary assurance for Biden's motorcade to proceed to Joint Base Andrews late Tuesday afternoon, according to sources familiar with the internal discussions.
If the early evidence examined by the President's team had indicated a different outcome, the White House would have been more open to reconsidering the trip. However, the advisors were hesitant to change direction shortly after Secretary of State Antony Blinken had already announced the trip. As a result, they never seriously considered canceling the entire trip, according to sources.
"He didn't have any other option. Once he committed to it, he couldn't back out," explained one source, emphasizing that canceling Biden's visit required a very compelling reason. The trip had originally included a stop in Tel Aviv, following the cancellation of a planned summit in Amman, Jordan by Arab leaders in response to the hospital explosion.
The White House's first public statement on the blast, which Hamas officials claim killed hundreds of civilians, expressed condemnation for the civilian casualties and stated that further analysis of intelligence would be conducted. During a press briefing aboard Air Force One en route to Israel, White House spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged that Israel denies responsibility, stating, "We understand they strongly believe that they are not responsible."
Meanwhile, President Biden's team worked throughout the night and delivered an initial intelligence assessment on Wednesday morning. According to a reliable source, the president was briefed on this assessment, which informed his explicit statement attributing the hospital strike to an accidental rocket launch by a terrorist group in Gaza.
Officials separately informed CNN that evidence collected by the US intelligence community indicates that a rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group caused the hospital strike. The National Security Council stated that the US assessment absolves Israel of responsibility for the attack. The day following the devastating explosion at the Gaza hospital, Biden returned to Air Force One. Despite spending less than eight hours on the ground after approximately 20 hours of travel, he had few concrete achievements to highlight.
Details on how humanitarian aid would enter resource-starved Gaza and the timeline for its delivery remained unanswered on Wednesday, even though Israel had announced its agreement to allow the aid. Additionally, the Rafah crossing into Egypt, despite earlier statements by Blinkens, remained closed. The president's casual mention of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad as "the other team," which the US believes is responsible for the hospital attack, undermined the diplomatic efforts made during the visit. However, this comment was later clarified by Biden, who attributed the attack to errant rocket fire from a terrorist group in Gaza.
The much-anticipated summit with Arab leaders in Jordan, which was expected to focus on humanitarian issues, was unfortunately postponed. This denied Biden the valuable opportunity to meet and engage with key partners in the region on a face-to-face basis.
According to a senior US official, the cancellation of the Jordan visit is indeed disappointing and seen as a setback. However, the trip is still considered worthwhile because it provides some additional time in case there is a potential Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. The official emphasizes that the longer Israel delays a ground incursion into Gaza, the better it is, as it allows them to plan strategically and not react emotionally to the events of October 7.
The advisers were determined to manage expectations even before Biden's arrival in Israel. They emphasized that showcasing American solidarity with Israel through a powerful visual was a key objective of the trip. They highlighted the image of Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu standing closely together, with the US leader being willing to take substantial risks to support his warnings to rogue actors in the region as a crucial outcome.
Simply put, one adviser stated that Biden conveyed a strong message to Israel, which was the primary purpose of the trip.