Analyzing the Central Video in Evaluating the Gaza Hospital Explosion
A CNN analysis of multiple videos reveals that the video cited by Israel and the US as evidence for the Gaza hospital blast does not seem to be directly connected to the explosion Further examination of three additional videos raises questions about the initial assessment
A video that Israel and the United States have referenced in their analysis of the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital blast in Gaza on October 17 does not seem to be directly connected to the explosion, as per a CNN examination of multiple videos that builds upon previous reporting. CNN reviewed the live footage broadcasted by Al Jazeera on the night of the explosion to gain a better understanding of what has been regarded as a crucial piece of evidence. Although this new analysis contributes to the evolving understanding of the event, it does not change CNN's previous conclusion that the explosion was likely a result of a malfunctioning rocket and not an Israeli airstrike.
After analyzing multiple videos filmed from various angles, CNN has found conclusive evidence to suggest that the projectile shown in the Al Jazeera broadcast was probably launched from within Israel, rather than from Gaza, as previously speculated. Additionally, there is little probability that this projectile is related to the explosion at Al-Ahli, which occurred several miles away.
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On October 17th, open-source researchers @ArchieIrving2 and @OAlexanderDK on X (formerly Twitter) were the first to analyze the footage and identify the possible launch site in Israel. The New York Times and The Washington Post have also confirmed this finding in their recent reports.
Immediately following the explosion, CNN meticulously analyzed numerous videos shared on social media, aired live on broadcasts, and recorded by a freelance journalist employed by CNN in Gaza. In addition, satellite imagery was utilized to meticulously reconstruct the events that transpired at the hospital complex, aiming for the highest level of detail attainable.
The open-source imagery vividly presented immense devastation caused by the hospital complex fire, a sight that experts deemed indicative of a malfunctioning rocket colliding with the ground, still possessing unused fuel.
Weapons and explosive experts, who possess extensive experience in evaluating bomb damage, have examined the visual evidence and conveyed to CNN their inclination towards this being the most plausible scenario. However, they have also emphasized the challenge in confirming their belief due to the absence of any remains of munitions or shrapnel at the scene. All the experts unanimously agree that the presented images of the damage at the site do not align with an Israeli airstrike.
Nevertheless, no visual evidence has been found that demonstrates a rocket striking the hospital, and CNN cannot eliminate the possibility of other explanations. As there is no access to the scene and no opportunity to collect evidence from the ground, no definitive conclusion can be reached.
According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the Al Jazeera video was not presented as conclusive evidence, as their findings are corroborated by other sources and intelligence. Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, IDF spokesperson, displayed a printout of the Al Jazeera footage during his interview with CNN on October 18, asserting that it depicted "the rocket that landed at the hospital."
A spokesperson from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, who released the US government's assessment of the hospital explosion, refused to comment on CNN's video analysis or confirm their own assessment.
According to a statement from the spokesperson, "The Intelligence Community of the United States concludes that Israel is not to blame for the explosion at Al Ahli Hospital in the Gaza Strip. Instead, we believe that the explosion was caused by a malfunctioned rocket launched by Palestinian militants. Our evaluation is grounded on various sources of information, including intelligence reports and the examination of the damage at the location."
Three additional videos
In order to reevaluate the Al Jazeera footage, CNN conducted a thorough analysis of three additional videos. These include one that was filmed by a cameraman positioned on a rooftop in Gaza City, a livestream captured from Bat Yam, a suburb of Tel Aviv, and a third video filmed by Channel 12, an Israeli television station affiliated with CNN, in Netivot, Israel.
By using geolocation to track the camera positions and establishing the field of view depicted in the videos, CNN was able to ascertain that the rocket was probably launched in close proximity to the town of Nahal Oz in Israel. Additionally, CNN found that the projectile appeared to detonate in the sky near the border with Gaza, a considerable distance away from Al-Ahli Hospital, thus making it highly improbable that the explosion was caused by the rocket.
Palestinians check the place of the explosion at al-Ahli hospital, in Gaza City, on Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023.
Abed Khaled/AP
The analysis of images and videos indicates that it was a rocket, not an Israeli airstrike, which caused the Gaza hospital blast. CNN was unable to confirm the exact type of projectile shown in the video. However, satellite imagery reveals that the presumed launch site is in close proximity to an Israeli military installation that is known to possess the Iron Dome defense system. Nonetheless, CNN cannot independently determine whether the object shown in the video is indeed an Iron Dome interceptor missile. Israel has stated that it does not launch interceptors into Gaza.
According to Markus Schiller, a missile expert from Germany who has conducted analysis for NATO and the European Union, the missile seen in the Al Jazeera video is likely an Israeli Iron Dome Tamir interceptor. This conclusion is based on its sudden change in direction and subsequent explosion in mid-air. Schiller explains that Tamir interceptors are specifically launched by the fully automated integrated air and missile defense system when there is a direct threat to certain areas, in order to avoid intercepting missiles that land in fields or sparsely populated areas. He suggests that it is possible that only one interceptor was launched to intercept a missile that deviated from its intended trajectory.
The IDF did not provide a response to CNN's inquiry regarding the use of the Iron Dome to intercept a rocket launched from Gaza on October 17th. According to Jonathan Conricus, an IDF spokesperson, Israel did not carry out any interceptions during that period.
Among the videos utilized by CNN to triangulate the Al Jazeera footage was a real-time footage from Bat Yam, capturing a substantial amount of rockets being fired and illuminating the night sky above Gaza shortly before 7 p.m. The video seemingly indicates that the volley originated from a position southwest of Al-Ahli Hospital, situated outside Gaza City.
According to Schiller, a Qassam rocket, commonly used by Palestinian militants, would have taken approximately 25 to 40 seconds to travel from the launch site to the hospital. This timeframe depends on various factors such as the launch angle, acceleration, and burn time. He suggested that the explosion most likely occurred due to a rocket launched towards Israel that fell short and landed in the hospital's parking lot, happening just a few seconds after what he referred to as the "intercept" observed in the Al Jazeera footage.
The rocket barrage's location appears to align with a map released by the IDF on October 18. The map indicated that rockets were launched from a site several kilometers away from Al-Ahli hospital, originating from a southwesterly direction and heading towards the hospital. However, CNN cannot independently verify whether a rocket fired from southwestern Gaza caused the explosion.
Israel claimed that the blast was caused by a rocket misfire from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a claim supported by US intelligence according to President Joe Biden. However, the National Security Council's spokesperson later stated that an analysis of various sources indicated that Israel is not responsible. Palestinian officials and Arab leaders alleged that Israel targeted the hospital during their airstrikes in Gaza, while the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a rival group to Hamas, denied any involvement.
Until an independent investigation is allowed on the ground and evidence is collected from the site, the prospect of determining who was behind the blast is remote.
