Unveiling the Deepening Chaos: Exposing the Escalating Crisis in the Middle East

Peter Bergen, CNN's national security analyst and vice president at New America, warns that despite the Biden administration's efforts to prevent a larger regional war in the Middle East, a de facto regional conflict is already underway, with the potential for dangerous escalations. He likens the situation to a frog in slowly boiling water, suggesting that the region may soon find itself in the midst of an all-out war.

Peter Bergen

CNN

The escalating conflict poses a growing threat that could draw the United States into the turmoil. That's one of the reasons why US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is making a visit to the Middle East this week - to attempt to prevent the spread of hostilities.

In the past few days, the leader of an Iranian-based militia in Baghdad was killed in a US drone strike. This strike comes after a series of attacks by Iranian-backed militias against US troops in Syria and Iraq. The Biden administration made a calculated decision with this strike, despite growing pressure in Iraq to expel the remaining 2,500 US troops in the country. The strike has intensified the calls to expel US troops, as reported by the Arabic-language newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia that controls much of Yemen, have reportedly supported Hamas by launching 23 attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea since November 19, using a variety of missiles, drones, and sea-based drones.

On January 5, 2024, thousands of protestors convened in Sanaa, Yemen, in response to the Iranian-backed Houthis' call to rally in solidarity with Gaza. The demonstration was organized by the Houthis and drew a large crowd.

The approach to the Suez Canal from the Red Sea is among the busiest shipping lanes globally, prompting several major shipping companies to halt their operations in the area.

The US and twelve allied nations issued a warning to the Houthis on Wednesday, urging them to cease their attacks on commercial shipping or be prepared to face undefined repercussions. This came after the US, three days prior, sank three Houthi speedboats in the Red Sea to thwart their attempted hijacking of a commercial vessel.

The Lebanese capital, Beirut, saw increased tensions between Hezbollah and Israel on Tuesday following a drone strike that killed Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri. Since October 7, there have been frequent retaliatory attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border. Al-Arouri's death in a Hezbollah-dominated area of Beirut has prompted Hezbollah to vow revenge.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at the the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP)

Abir Sultan/AP

The aftermath of the war will bring consequences for Netanyahu. The timeline is risky. Israel carried out airstrikes in Damascus on Monday, targeting Syrian military assets. The Syrian government received support from Hezbollah fighters during the civil war and has openly backed Hamas.

Additionally, on Thursday, ISIS asserted responsibility for two suicide attacks at a memorial service for Iranian military leader General Qassim Suleimani, resulting in the deaths of at least 84 people. As a Sunni jihadist group, ISIS views the Shia clerics in power in Iran as heretics. Incidents of Sunni jihadist group attacks within Iran have been uncommon, making this attack a significant escalation by ISIS against Iran. In response to the attack, Iranian leaders have vowed to retaliate against the terrorist group.

The increasing conflicts in the region are partly due to advancements in military technology over the past two decades and the rise of proxy warfare in the Middle East during the same period. It's important to remember that before the 9/11 attacks, there were no armed drones capable of carrying out targeted strikes far from the attacker's base. The use of armed drones by the US became synonymous with the "war on terror," and today, other countries like Israel and groups such as the Houthis have also adopted this tactic.

During the same time period, the Middle East experienced a surge of proxy forces allied with Iran in some capacity. This was partly a result of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. According to the official US Army history of the conflict, the only real winner of the war in Iraq was Iran. Even today, Iran is reported to continue supporting militias in Iraq, as stated in a 2023 report prepared for the British House of Commons.

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Escalating attacks raise concerns of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

The US State Department reports that Hezbollah in Lebanon has received significant funding from Iran, and many of its fighters have undergone training in Iranian camps. Iran wields substantial influence in Syria and has stationed its own forces there. The Houthis in Yemen are backed and trained by Iran, and Hamas has also been supplied with weapons from Iran.

The situation is a volatile one, as the use of armed drones and proxy forces by powers such as the US, Israel, and Iran has the potential to lead to a full-blown conflict. Despite the avoidance of conventional war, relying on drones and proxies is a risky move that could bring these powers closer to all-out war. History has shown that seemingly insignificant events, such as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, have sparked major conflicts, highlighting the uncertainty of warfare. In Israel, there is a growing push for a war with the well-armed and proficient Hezbollah, which presents a greater challenge than Hamas. The last full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 resulted in a stalemate.

Lebanon is hesitant to engage in another war after the 2006 conflict caused significant damage to the country, which is already struggling with economic and financial crises. However, despite this reluctance, war could still be a possibility due to Israel's concerns about the threat from Hezbollah and Hezbollah's escalating responses to Israeli attacks.

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In Washington, DC, the national security establishment has long prioritized addressing the growing challenges presented by China. Since President Barack Obama's tenure, there has been a consistent effort to decrease US engagement in the wider Middle East. Despite withdrawing all US troops from Iraq in 2011, American soldiers were redeployed in 2014 to combat ISIS. President Donald Trump's administration signed a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban in 2020, and President Joe Biden withdrew all US troops from Afghanistan in 2021.

Despite ongoing factors such as the U.S.'s alliance with Israel, the global significance of oil and gas, and enduring competition with Iran, the United States continues to be drawn back into the Middle East. The concern now is the potential for a heightened conflict involving Iranian proxy forces, the U.S., and its allies, potentially engulfing the region in a larger scale war.