Biden's Middle East mission faced unprecedented challenges from the very start

President Joe Biden's attempt to control the Israeli-Hamas conflict was overshadowed even before he departed from Washington on Tuesday evening, as the situation rapidly deteriorated and posed a risk of escalating into a regional war.

Following a destructive explosion at a Gaza hospital, with reports suggesting hundreds of casualties, Jordan canceled the second part of Biden's trip. After his visit to Israel, he had planned to travel to Amman to meet with important Arab and Palestinian figures.

Blamed by Hamas for Israel and by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government for another Palestinian radical group, Islamic Jihad, the tragedy highlights the inherent dangers of a presidential trip during fast-paced events and in a war-torn region. Nonetheless, despite putting his personal security and political standing at stake, staying home would have posed an even greater risk for Biden.

That's because he'll arrive in Israel on Wednesday with the Middle East on the brink of a catastrophic escalation towards a wider war. This comes after the brutal Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians, resulting in the loss of more than 1,400 lives. In response, Israeli forces have pounded the Gaza Strip, causing over 3,000 casualties, as confirmed by authorities on both sides. In the wake of the devastating explosion at a Gaza hospital, widespread demonstrations have erupted throughout the region, including in the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Tunisia, reflecting a heightened level of anger over Israel's retaliatory measures against the Hamas assault.

President Joe Biden speaks Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023, in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, about the war between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas.

Evan Vucci/AP

In his effort to demonstrate US power and deter Israels adversaries, Joe Biden has made the decision to embark on a trip to Israel, comparable to a wartime mission. Alongside the deployment of two aircraft carrier battlegroups, this presidential visit will serve as a powerful symbol. Biden aims to express unwavering support for the Jewish state during a difficult period, while also addressing the dire situation of Palestinians in Gaza who are facing the devastating consequences of continuous Israeli attacks commanded by Hamas.

His mission signifies the most robust commitment from a president in resolving Middle East crises in recent years, following a prolonged period when US presidents avoided involvement in the seemingly unsolvable Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This task comes at a time when Biden is already heavily engaged in another urgent global crisis with profound implications - Ukraine's struggle to repel a Russian invasion that posed a threat of complete annihilation. As is the case with any significant intervention by a president in a troubled world, Biden's visit carries the risk of failure, which could undermine his political standing domestically.

Biden's intervention is crucial, as the absence of political or diplomatic dialogue tends to lead to violence. The troubled history of the region demonstrates that one atrocity inevitably begets another, creating a vicious cycle of escalating violence and revenge that fuels radicalism and future conflicts. It is imperative that the Middle East does not once again become engulfed in flames, particularly at a time when war and totalitarianism are challenging the established Western order and democratic values, which the world cannot afford to lose.

The United States plays a crucial role in a time of intense tensions, primarily due to its commitment to defending Israel and its own vested interests in managing the crisis. The involvement of the United States in a broader conflict that includes Israel could have significant political consequences for Biden and the country as a whole. It is not feasible for the leadership to remain distant in such a perilous situation, even though Biden may not have complete control over the outcome given the influences driving the actions of Hamas, Israel, and other regional powers.

"As you immerse yourself in the situation, you become a co-author of the narrative, so ensure that the story is one that you shape," remarked CNN senior political analyst David Axelrod during an interview on "CNN This Morning" on Tuesday, as he assessed the risks Biden is undertaking.

The omens for Bidens trip keep getting worse

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"He is a pivotal figure in this scenario and should conduct himself accordingly. This moment is of utmost importance, as it will demonstrate the depth of our support and apprehensions. The presence of the president will hold significant value."

The scenes on Tuesday of Palestinians being rescued from the ruins of a bombed hospital further complicated Biden's already challenging mission. This tragic event, with the potential to ignite broader unrest, was exactly what Biden had aimed to avert by visiting the region.

Hamas claimed that the hospital was targeted by Israeli forces, resulting in the deaths of 200 to 300 individuals. Conversely, the Israel Defense Forces stated that intelligence indicated the strike was a result of rockets launched by the Islamic Jihad group towards Israel, which fell short.

An Israeli official and a separate source, who is knowledgeable about the situation, informed CNN reporters Oren Liebermann and Zachary Cohen on Tuesday that Israel shared intelligence with the United States regarding the Gaza hospital explosion which resulted in multiple fatalities. The US is currently examining the Israeli intelligence, and this information has been relayed to some lawmakers by officials from the Biden administration, according to the familiar source.

Regardless of the confirmed cause, the outcome remains the same - innocent civilians continue to lose their lives in a rapidly escalating cycle of violence that may surpass the ability of any party involved to manage. Therefore, it is imperative for President Biden to utilize the power of the United States in order to subdue the escalating crisis.

The president was en route to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland when news emerged that his planned visit to Jordan had been called off due to the explosion at the hospital. He had intended to hold meetings with King Abdullah, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, responsible for governing the West Bank but not Gaza, which is under Hamas control.

Jordans Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi expressed on Al Jazeera Arabic that there would be no advantage in convening a summit under the current circumstances.

The White House released a statement announcing the postponement of the visit due to a mourning period following the hospital explosion. However, no mention was made regarding the cause of the blast. The statement conveyed the President's sincere condolences for the lives lost in the Gaza hospital explosion and expressed his hope for a speedy recovery of the injured.

The cancellation of the Jordan leg of the trip presents a significant image challenge for Biden, as it may lead to perceptions of him favoring Israel in the region. This cancellation deprives him of the opportunity to hear firsthand the concerns of Arab leaders regarding the dire humanitarian conditions faced by Palestinians amidst Israeli bombardment.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other US officials have made numerous efforts, but so far unsuccessfully, to facilitate the reopening of the Gaza-Egypt border for Gazans holding US and other foreign passports, who are eager to leave. On the Egyptian side of the border, there is a mounting pile of humanitarian supplies.

However, the situation is dire for Gazans as they lack access to water and essential supplies due to the actions of Netanyahus government. The ongoing detainment of hundreds of hostages by Hamas has led to these restrictions. It is crucial for President Biden to demonstrate his ability to secure humanitarian concessions from Israel, as his credibility with Arab leaders hinges on it.

The importance of President Biden's objectives extends beyond mere moral considerations. In the face of a global outpouring of support for Israel, it is crucial not to overshadow the escalating human suffering caused by Israeli attacks on Hamas targets in Gaza. Disturbing footage of Palestinian civilians who have been killed or injured amplifies the likelihood of retaliatory attacks by Israeli adversaries such as Hezbollah. This, in turn, raises the possibility of a catastrophic response that could expand the conflict into Lebanon.

Fury over Israel's tactics, meanwhile, mounts pressure on Arab leaders from their own populations and raises the potential for street violence. In the aftermath of the Gaza hospital blast, clashes have already erupted in Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. The success of a regional peace initiative, intended to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and reshape the Middle East while isolating Iran, may hinge on Biden's ability to restrain Israel's conflict with Hamas. However, following years of attempting to disengage from the Middle East, post-9/11 wars, and a prolonged period of neglecting the plight of the Palestinians, US diplomacy is also in dire need of restoring its credibility in the Middle East.

Biden and Israel

Biden's arrival in Israel, occurring less than two weeks after a devastating day for the country, marks a turning point in its history. The event shattered the illusion of security and will have lasting psychological effects, shaping the country's politics for years to come. By aligning himself with a weakened Netanyahu, whose legacy will be forever marred by a major intelligence and military failure, Biden grants the Israeli prime minister a valuable political advantage. Moreover, his presence, combined with the bolstering of US military presence in the region, sends a clear message to Israel's adversaries: the United States stands united with the Jewish state, ready to defend it.

In addition, Biden seeks to establish a strong bond of trust with the Israeli people, especially following a period of deep division caused by Netanyahus's far-right coalition. By putting Netanyahu in his debt and earning credibility among Israelis, Biden aims to exert influence on Israeli policies and play a significant role in the upcoming Gaza offensive.

The process began shortly after the attacks, with Biden describing the Hamas attacks and their significance not only for Israelis, but also in the context of Jewish history.

According to Biden, the attacks were a manifestation of pure evil. On October 10, he expressed how the attack had triggered painful memories and reopened wounds caused by centuries of antisemitism and Jewish genocide. Therefore, he emphasized the need for clarity in their stance: they unequivocally stand with Israel.

Yet, in Biden's rhetoric and the US's calls for Netanyahu to respond appropriately, there is a subtle implication that Biden aims to mitigate the most radical responses to the Hamas attacks and safeguard Israel from the potential repercussions of any excessive actions it might take.

How Bidens trip increases his own political risks

The widening war in the region has global consequences, providing sufficient reason for Biden to prioritize efforts to prevent a worse crisis. However, it is important to acknowledge that every action taken by presidents has political implications. When footage from foreign trips is broadcasted back home, it influences the perception of the commander in chief. This situation holds particular significance for Biden, who currently faces low approval ratings and the possibility of a 2024 rematch with former President Donald Trump.

For Biden, the optics of departing on short notice for a daring trip to a war zone, as he did during a surprise visit to Ukraine earlier this year, are likely to please Democrats. By undertaking such trips, Biden addresses concerns about his age and suitability for office. While foreign policy rarely serves as a deciding factor in US elections, a successful demonstration of global statesmanship by Biden, resulting in eased tensions and enhanced US security, would highlight a contrast with Trump. Trump's recent criticism of Netanyahu showcased how his potential return to the White House could once again intertwine US diplomacy with his own ego and personal grievances.

Biden's impromptu visit to Israel during a time of ongoing conflict displays a level of political theatrics that one might expect from a showman like Trump if he were still in power. Trump's response to Biden's prominence on the global stage, while he himself faced a fraud trial in New York, seemed to be tinged with both jealousy and resentment - a stark contrast to Biden's purposeful mission.

"When it comes to Biden, I perceive everything he does as being politically motivated, and regrettably, his endeavors rarely prove successful," remarked Trump.