Unraveling: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Unveils Armenia's Strained Ties with Russia

The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has coincided with a significant decline in the relationship between longstanding allies Armenia and Russia. This deterioration has been further exacerbated by inflammatory remarks made by influential figures in Moscow.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and officials in Yerevan have criticized Russia for not fulfilling its security obligations to Armenia. This criticism follows the Azerbaijani military's "anti-terrorist" operations against the ethnic Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh, which occurred prior to the ceasefire agreement reached on Wednesday.

Pashinyan expressed criticism towards Russia for failing to inform him about Azerbaijan's military plans, deeming it "unusual and confusing" that his government did not receive "any intelligence from our Russian partners regarding this operation."

For many years, Armenia relied on Russia as its primary guarantor of security. However, Armenia's dissatisfaction with the perceived ineffectiveness of Russia's peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh has been mounting recently, as demonstrated on Tuesday. Conversely, Russia has been infuriated by Armenia's efforts to establish new international alliances, including its joint military exercises with the United States.

Armenia's Security Council Secretary, Armen Grigoryan, criticized Russian peacekeepers for their alleged inability to safeguard Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijani aggression, as reported by state media outlet Armenpress.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in December 2022.

Kremlin

Is Russia losing grip over one of its longtime allies?

On Wednesday, Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin, dismissed Armenia's allegations against the Russian peacekeeping force, stating, "These accusations hold no basis."

The ties between Moscow and Yerevan have been deteriorating for a while now, but in recent weeks, the situation has worsened considerably. In a significant move, Armenia sent humanitarian assistance to Ukraine earlier this month, marking the first time it has done so. Anna Hakobyan, the wife of Pashinyan, made an official visit to Kyiv during this occasion.

Pashinyan stated in an interview with CNN Prima News in June, "We are not allied with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine. The war and the ensuing conflict give us a sense of anxiety as it directly impacts all our relationships."

A chorus of criticism

Armenia's leadership has faced severe scrutiny and criticism from Russian commentators and politicians. There have been instances where it has been ridiculed for its failure to safeguard ethnic Armenians residing outside its borders. Furthermore, there is an expectation for Russian peacekeepers to protect Nagorno-Karabakh where Yerevan lacks the capability to do so.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been highly critical of Pashinyan. In a post on Telegram, he mocked Pashinyan for losing the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 but somehow managing to maintain his position of power. Medvedev also accused Pashinyan of blaming Russia for his inept defeat and ultimately giving up a portion of his country's territory. Furthermore, Medvedev stated that Pashinyan is now attempting to cozy up to NATO, insinuating that there will be inevitable consequences for his actions.

According to prominent Russian military blogger Rybar, Armenia heavily depends on Russia for security in Nagorno-Karabakh. Rybar commented that there is a consistent attempt by pro-Pashinyan nationalists to discredit Russian peacekeepers who are expected to take action.

Russia claims to offer security to Armenia via the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance comprising post-Soviet states that includes Armenia but excludes Azerbaijan.

A damaged residential building in Stepanakert, the regional capital, after Azerbaijan began strikes on Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, 2023.

Gegham Stepanyan/X/AP

Why have there been clashes over control of Nagorno-Karabakh?

On Twitter, Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of state television network RT, expressed her thoughts on the tragic and predictable situation in Karabakh. She remarked that the Armenian authorities' actions have led to the unfortunate fate of surrendering their own Armenian shrine. She drew a parallel by calling it an unenviable destiny similar to that of Judas.

Simonyan also shared her observations on Telegram concerning the protests in Yerevan. She reported that the crowd was chanting "Nikol is a traitor" and noted that the people have finally awakened. She classified Nikol, who came to power with anti-Russian sentiments, as a traitor due to his actions against Armenian interests, not Russian. Simonyan firmly stated that Russia can manage without Armenia, but Armenia cannot survive without Russia.

Pashinyan rose to power in 2018 following Armenia's "Velvet Revolution," a wave of public discontent against longstanding corruption and nepotism in the ex-Soviet nation. Additionally, Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent figure in Russian television, strongly criticized Pashinyan's administration.

"Why don't those individuals who criticize Lavrov or Putin have the willingness to go and fight for Karabakh, a land historically inhabited by Armenians? Instead, they expect Russian soldiers to sacrifice their lives on their behalf," Solovyov stated.

"I am curious about the role of the Armenian army. If they are receiving training from Americans, how exactly did the Americans provide assistance?" he inquired.

According to Meduza, an independent Russian media project, the Kremlin has circulated a guidance document to state media outlets. The document advises blaming Armenia and Western countries for escalating the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh instead of Azerbaijan. The Kremlin highlights that "the Armenian leadership recognized the sovereignty of Azerbaijan over Karabakh," but claims that Pashinyan's more radical stance was influenced by his Western partners, who should share the responsibility for the resulting consequences.

CNN cannot confirm the authenticity of the document, but its guidance appears to have been closely followed by multiple commentators.