Escalating Conflict: The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh Hangs in the Balance

Almost half of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh has migrated to Armenia, with several thousand individuals still hastily trying to evacuate, a week after the breakaway region surrendered in the face of a sudden Azerbaijani attack.

According to officials from the Armenian government, over 50,000 individuals, including 17,000 children, had fled as of Wednesday morning. This exodus occurred as Azerbaijan ended a 10-month blockade on the sole road connecting the enclave to Armenia.

Azerbaijan declared last week that it has fully regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is located within its borders but has operated autonomously with its own de facto government for decades. Although Azerbaijan offered Karabakh Armenians the option to stay in the region by accepting Azerbaijani citizenship, a significant number of them chose to leave their homes instead of being under Baku's rule.

Many residents have lost hope of returning to their ancestral homeland. "They have changed our flag, our government has surrendered. That's all. Within maybe two weeks, no Armenian will remain here," stated a resident of Karabakh to CNN.

Thousands of residents have stuffed what could fit into their cars and fled to Armenia.

Vasily Krestyaninov/AP

How did we get here?

Azerbaijan achieved a resounding military triumph in the region recently, compelling the surrender of the Karabakh armed forces in under 24 hours. This seemingly concludes a conflict that spanned over a century. Following Azerbaijan's initiation of missile and drone attacks on Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, numerous residents of the regional capital Stepanakert sought refuge in improvised bomb shelters, signaling the commencement of the third battle waged for dominance over the region in as many decades.

During the time when Azerbaijan and Armenia were part of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh, which is now an autonomous region, was included within the republic of Azerbaijan in 1923.

In 1988, the officials in Karabakh passed a resolution stating their desire to become part of the republic of Armenia. This led to conflicts erupting as the Soviet Union started to disintegrate, marking the beginning of the First Karabakh War. Over a span of six years, approximately 30,000 individuals lost their lives in the violence, which came to an end in 1994 when the Armenian side gained control of the region.

Starting in 2020, the Second Karabakh War unfolded after years of intermittent clashes. With support from its long-standing ally Turkey, Azerbaijan swiftly reclaimed a significant portion of the Karabakh territory within a span of 44 days. Subsequently, both sides reached an agreement to cease hostilities through a Russian-mediated ceasefire.

Remarkably brief, the third war lasted only a single day. The Karabakh presidency acknowledged being vastly outnumbered by the Azerbaijani forces and ultimately surrendered, leading to the dissolution and complete disarmament of their armed forces. Another ceasefire, also facilitated by Russia, was implemented on September 20th at 1 p.m.

Karabakh's rapid surrender highlighted its military weakness, as Azerbaijan, equipped with Turkish drones, achieved a resounding victory in 2020 by attacking both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. Unlike the previous year, Armenia's armed forces chose not to defend the region in the latest offensive, partly due to apprehension of further Azerbaijani aggression. "Their advantage is so significant that they could easily divide Armenia into two," stated Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group's senior analyst for the South Caucasus in an interview with CNN. "They could accomplish this through a short military operation, possibly within a day or two."

Karabakh's despair resulted in Baku's triumph. A speech delivered by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Wednesday evening declared that his forces had effectively "punished the enemy" and successfully restored Baku's sovereignty "with an iron fist."

A damaged apartment building after shelling in Stepanakert, September 19, 2023.

Siranush Sargsyan/AP

What happens next?

Following the cessation of hostilities, Baku dispatched delegates to engage in discussions with Karabakh authorities on the matter of "reintegration." Although specific information from the negotiations remains limited, Azerbaijan has consistently emphasized the decision faced by ethnic Armenians residing in the area.

In a speech delivered in May, he said Karabakh officials needed to "bend their necks" and accept full integration into Azerbaijan.

Refugees ride in the back of a truck as they arrive in Kornidzor, Armenia, September 26, 2023.

rakli Gedenidze/Reuters

Farid Shafiyev, who chairs the Center of Analysis of International Relations in Baku, an organization engaged in government discussions regarding "reintegration," stated to CNN: "Those who are unwilling to accept Azerbaijani jurisdiction must depart. Those who wish to remain and obtain passports are welcome to stay."

While Aliyev asserted that the rights of Karabakh Armenians "will be ensured," Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia and international experts have continually cautioned about the potential threat of ethnic cleansing.

Nonna Poghosyan, the program coordinator at the American University of Armenia's Stepanakert campus, informed CNN that her family came to the realization over the weekend that it was safer to evacuate rather than remain. On Monday morning, she dedicated her time to determining the maximum number of her family's possessions that could fit inside their car.

According to Poghosyan, her nine-year-old twin children bid farewell to their home.

"They grabbed their markers and retreated to their personal havens, where they unleashed their creativity upon the walls. Churches and crosses materialized under their skilled hands, accompanied by heartfelt expressions such as 'Artsakh, we love you. We will never forget you.' With unwavering devotion, they proclaimed, 'We do not wish to part with you, our beloved motherland,'" Poghosyan expressed.

Poghosyan's twins wrote farewell messages to Nagorno-Karabakh on their bedroom walls.

Nonna Poghosyan

Who will take the refugees?

Pashinyan said in a speech Sunday his government "will welcome our sisters and brothers of Nagorno-Karabakh to the Republic of Armenia with all care."

The level of preparedness of Armenia, with a population of around 2.8 million, to accommodate up to 120,000 arrivals from Nagorno-Karabakh is uncertain. By Wednesday morning, approximately 50,000 individuals had crossed the border and were received in temporary refugee camps located in the border towns of Goris and Kornidzor. Samantha Power, the chief of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), expressed concern during her visit to Armenia, stating that the arriving individuals were experiencing "severe malnutrition."

Nagorno-Karabakh remains blockaded as of December 2022, following the establishment of a military checkpoint on the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan-backed activists. This corridor is crucial as it is the sole road connecting the landlocked enclave to Armenia.

Thousands tried to flee Nagorno-Karabakh at once, causing long lines on the road to Armenia.

Vasily Krestyaninov/AP

Due to the blockade, essential supplies such as food, fuel, and medicine could not reach Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to concerns about residents facing starvation. Prior to the start of the recent offensive, residents spoke to CNN about the long hours they had to wait in line just to get their daily bread ration. Fortunately, the blockade was lifted last week, allowing residents to escape. The US State Department announced that Power arrived in Baku on Wednesday to discuss the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and explore possibilities for a lasting and respectful peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, based on mutual respect for their territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Can everyone leave?

Analysts told CNN before the evacuations began that they feared Azerbaijan might prevent certain members of the population from leaving.

Vartanyan, a member of Crisis Group, expressed her concern regarding the management of the routes into Armenia. She raised questions about whether it will be in the hands of Russian peacekeepers, the ICRC, or Azerbaijani authorities. She also questioned whether this would result in people having to go through filtration camps and the possibility of them being detained. This includes local men who have participated in past fighting or were part of the local de facto authorities.

According to Vartanyan, over the weekend, residents in Stepanakert were actively destroying any documentation that could be used as evidence by Azerbaijani authorities to prove their involvement with the de facto government.

Ruben Vardanyan, a well-known political figure and entrepreneur from Karabakh, was apprehended on Wednesday at a border checkpoint in the Lachin corridor. The border service reported that he was subsequently taken to Baku. Azerbaijan claimed that Vardanyan had unlawfully entered the country, offering no additional specifics. Baku has consistently asserted that the Artsakh government has been operating illegally on its territory. A photograph, disseminated by the border service on Telegram, depicted Vardanyan being restrained by two individuals dressed in Azerbaijani attire. The veracity of the image could not be independently verified by CNN.

CNNs Benjamin Brown and Aren Melikyan contributed reporting.