Unraveling the Limitations of Nobel's Rule of Three

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Prepare for an imminent revelation as the Nobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, and medicine or physiology are soon to be unveiled, shining a spotlight on the brilliant minds hidden within the depths of academia.

The awards, created by Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel over a hundred years ago, symbolize the highest level of scientific accomplishment, honoring revolutionary discoveries that often take several decades to materialize.

Rosalind Elsie Franklin (1920-1958), a British chemist and crystallographer, is renowned for her pivotal contribution to the unraveling of DNA's structure. (1956) - Image courtesy of Universal History Archive/Getty Images.

70 years ago, the discovery of the structure of DNA was made public. Did Rosalind Franklin receive recognition? The prizes awarded for such discoveries often face criticism and can lead to disputes and feelings of exclusion, according to Martin Rees, a British cosmologist and physicist who served as the former president of the Royal Society, the world's oldest scientific society.

Rees mentioned that the collaborative nature of scientific research poses a challenge for the Nobel committees. The notion of a solitary genius having a eureka moment is no longer prevalent, if it ever truly existed. Furthermore, discoveries can now occur simultaneously by multiple teams.

Nevertheless, adhering to the guidelines established by Alfred Nobel in 1895, the Nobel selection committees are restricted to honoring a maximum of three individuals for each award. This condition, as stated by Rees, can be a source of frustration.

"It could be a project involving multiple individuals working simultaneously, with certain individuals being singled out while others are not. In some cases, there may be a team where it is not immediately apparent that the individuals chosen are the ones with the most influence," said Rees, the astronomer royal of the UK and author of "If Science Is to Save Us."

The Nobel selection committees, according to the rules laid down by founder Alfred Nobel in 1895, can only honor up to three people per prize.

Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty Images

The detection of gravitational waves, known as "ripples" in space caused by colliding black holes situated 1 billion or more light-years away, was recognized with the 2017 Nobel Prize in physics. Notably, the important papers addressing this breakthrough were authored by nearly 1,000 individuals, as pointed out by Rees. However, only three recipients were granted the prestigious prize: Rainer Weiss, Barry Barish, and Kip Thorne.

Another widely discussed contender for the Nobel Prize in medicine or chemistry is the comprehensive mapping of the human genome. This transformative endeavor, which engaged numerous participants, reached its full completion only in 2022.

David Pendlebury, the head of research analysis at Clarivate's Institute for Scientific Information, concurs that the three-person rule is restrictive in identifying individuals deemed "Nobel worthy." Pendlebury, who determines this by assessing the frequency of citations their key scientific papers receive from fellow scientists over the years, acknowledges the significant shift in scientific research towards team-based collaborations and larger groups tackling complex issues on a global scale. He further asserts that the rule of three poses a hindrance in recognizing and rewarding such teams.

The restriction of only awarding a prize to three individuals is based on the statutes of the Nobel Foundation. The foundation is tasked with fulfilling the intentions of Alfred Nobel's will, as stated on the official Nobel Prize website. Despite this restriction, Peter Brzezinski, the secretary of the committee for the Nobel chemistry prize, announced that there are no intentions to modify this rule. However, he did disclose that the committee follows a comprehensive process once the nominations are received by the end of January. According to Brzezinski, this process involves soliciting reports from experts worldwide, which describe the respective field of the discovery, highlight significant advancements in that area, and acknowledge individuals who have made noteworthy contributions. Brzezinski conveyed this information via email.

"We engage in thorough literature review, actively participate in conferences, and produce comprehensive reports within the committee," Brzezinski stated. "Over time, we frequently excel in pinpointing a select group of scientists who have achieved remarkable discoveries. If this proves impossible, we are unable to recommend a Prize to the Academy."

The Nobel committees usually highlight research conducted several decades ago, which requires a retrospective perspective since it takes time for the importance of scientific studies to emerge.

Moreover, the Nobel Prizes specifically concentrate on three scientific fields established by Alfred Nobel's will. This excludes disciplines such as mathematics, computer science, earth and climate science, and oceanography.

Rice University mechanical engineers have found a way to convert the bodies of deceased spiders into necrobotic grippers.

Preston Innovation Laboratory/Rice University

Nose hairs, dead spiders and licking rocks are among this years Ig Nobel Prize-winning topics

From 1995 to 2017, a study conducted in 2020 revealed that Nobel Prizes were predominantly awarded in five specific scientific subdisciplines, namely particle physics, atomic physics, cell biology, neuroscience, and molecular chemistry. This finding raises concerns about the Nobel committees aligning with current scientific priorities, as highlighted by Rees.

Artificial intelligence, also known as AI, is revolutionizing the lives of individuals at an unmatched rate.

Demis Hassabis and John Jumper, prominent figures in the industry, are the creators of AlphaFoldan, an AI program developed by Google DeepMind. This groundbreaking program deciphers the intricate 3D configurations of proteins derived from sequences of amino acids. Their remarkable achievements have earned them significant accolades, such as the prestigious $250,000 Lasker Prize this year, as well as the Breakthrough Prize bestowed upon them a year prior.

Since their key paper was published just over two years ago, it has been cited more than 8,500 times, Pendlebury said.

Evolutionary biologist Dolph Schluter is pictured at one of his ponds containing stickleback fish at the University of British Columbia.

Katie Chu

Pendlebury, who started compiling his list of "citation laureates" in 2002, expressed his awe at the remarkable speed at which the citations have grown. He described it as an immense and significant intellectual breakthrough.

The Nobel committees have occasionally recognized recent breakthroughs, like when Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna were awarded the chemistry prize in 2020 for their groundbreaking 2012 paper on the CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing technique. However, Pendlebury believes that a Nobel Prize for AI this year is unlikely, as he considers the Nobel Prize committees, especially for science prizes, to be inherently conservative.

Criticism of the Nobel Prizes also involves the insufficient representation of diverse winners. While there has been a slight increase in the number of female scientists honored by Stockholm, it has been more of a slow and limited progress than a widespread and significant change.

In terms of science awards, last year witnessed Carolyn Bertozzi as the sole female recipient of the chemistry prize. Notably, there were no women recognized in the science category in either 2021 or 2019, despite the Nobel committee urging nominators to consider diversity in gender, geography, and field. Astrophysicist Andrea Ghez had the opportunity to share the physics prize in 2020, coinciding with the chemistry triumph of Doudna and Charpentier.

FILE - A Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2020 file photo of a Nobel Prize medal. The Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded on Friday Oct. 8, 2021.(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

Niklas Halle'n/AP

5 women who should have won a Nobel Prize

Pendlebury said he believes lack of diversity on the Nobel stage is essentially a pipeline problem.

"They are examining work that was usually published 20 or 30 years ago, a time when the representation of women in science at prestigious levels was not as high as it is today," he remarked. "As time progresses, we observe an increasing number of women being chosen."

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Some argue that this matter further proves the existence of systemic prejudice in science, as women are already less likely to receive acknowledgement or be designated as the lead author of scientific papers.

Naomi Oreskes, a professor at Harvard University specializing in the history of science and Earth and planetary sciences, highlights the unjust treatment of women who made significant contributions to science, only to have their male colleagues receive the recognition. This indicates a systematic bias that overlooked qualified women. The lack of transparency in the Nobel selection process, with the short list and nominators kept secret and the selection documents sealed for 50 years, is attributed by Rees as a contributing factor to the diversity problem.

The flaws and gaps in the Nobels are significant because they enjoy greater recognition compared to other science prizes, according to Rees. He favors challenge prizes, such as the XPrize, which stimulate future endeavors to address crucial issues instead of merely honoring past achievements.

The announcement for the Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine is scheduled for Monday, followed by the physics prize on Tuesday and the Nobel Prize in chemistry on Wednesday. The Nobel Prize for literature and the Nobel Peace Prize will be unveiled on Thursday and Friday, respectively.