Unraveling the Devastating Surge: Exploring the Root Causes Behind the Rise of Deadly Floods
Discover the alarming surge of deadly floods across the globe Uncover whether these catastrophes are a consequence of climate change or simply an extraordinary series of extreme weather events occurring in rapid succession
In such a short period of time, there have been numerous floods occurring in various parts of the world.
Adam Sobel
In recent weeks, Massachusetts, Hong Kong, Greece, and Spain have all experienced significant flooding. However, the most devastating consequences were seen in Libya. The heavy rainfall from storm Daniel in the Mediterranean resulted in dam failures and a death toll of several thousand. It is estimated that the number of fatalities could exceed 10,000 once the missing persons are included, as reported by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
What is the cause of the simultaneous occurrence of numerous extreme floods? Is it attributed to climate change, or simply a series of unusually intense weather events happening in quick succession due to the natural variations within the climate?
As is typically the case, it is likely a combination of both factors. Although we can confidently assert certain aspects regarding the impact of global warming on such events, there are many uncertainties that remain. However, these uncertainties should not diminish the risks or weaken our determination towards transitioning to clean energy and adapting to the changing climate. On the contrary, they should strengthen our commitment.
This is what we understand: In general, there is a growing occurrence of intense rainfall events, which are increasingly extreme throughout most parts of the world. This pattern is directly linked to global warming, as previously anticipated and forecasted.
Numerous individuals march through Berlin's city center, carrying posters and signs as they demand action from politicians during the climate strike on 23 September 2022. The global climate strike, called for by the Fridays For Future movement, takes place this Friday. Image credit: Monika Skolimowska/dpa/picture alliance/Getty Images.
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In warmer atmospheres, the presence of more water vapor is a well-established fact. We observe and comprehend this phenomenon. The most intense rain occurrences prove to be the most effective in converting the water vapor into rainfall. As the amount of water vapor available for condensation increases, the intensity of rainfall rises. This logical explanation is further backed by advanced computer models used for weather and climate forecasting.
The individual storms present a more intricate situation.
An exceptional occurrence like Daniel in Libya requires additional factors beyond water vapor. Specifically, the flooding incidents in Greece, Spain, and Libya coincided with a weather pattern referred to as "blocking," wherein the upper atmospheric flow is disrupted by a continuous high-pressure system. Consequently, this phenomenon can lead to the occurrence of significant storms in locations where they would typically be infrequent.
Blocking occurs naturally, but climate change exacerbates various weather events. Therefore, it is possible that blocking, along with its associated unusual storms, may occur more frequently as global temperatures rise. Nonetheless, the scientific community remains uncertain about this correlation.
Some argue that warming contributes to the increased occurrence of blocking. However, the evidence supporting this claim is inconclusive at best, and many experts in the field remain skeptical. Personally, I am among those unconvinced but remain open to new perspectives. While we have gained considerable knowledge about how warming impacts extreme weather, there is still much to learn, particularly regarding the effects of global warming on blocking. Ongoing research and debate continue in this area.
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As schools prioritize sustainability, there is a growing movement to address the climate crisis during the holiday season. To promote eco-friendly initiatives, schools are taking various measures such as banning non-biodegradable glitter and considering the elimination of Christmas crackers. One school implemented a Christmas jumper exchange program, encouraging students to bring in their old jumpers to swap instead of purchasing new ones. In another school, the nativity scenery and costumes were reused or recycled. This shift towards environmentally conscious practices reflects the growing concern for the environment among pupils, parents, and teachers. (Ben Birchall/PA Wire via AP Images)
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El Niño may have played a role in the recent floods. El Niños are climatic phenomena in which the surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, causing temporary changes in atmospheric circulation worldwide. A recent study revealed a connection between "East Pacific El Niños" and increased blocking over Europe.
Alongside blocking events, El Niños occur naturally. However, our climate models suggest that greenhouse warming will lead to the Pacific trending towards El Niño-like conditions as it continues to warm. If these models are accurate, it would suggest that human influence could be partly responsible for the current El Niño, as well as the blocking event and subsequent floods.
Observations from the last few decades cast doubt on the accuracy of the models predicting climate patterns. The Pacific Ocean has been deviating from expectations and showing signs of a La Niña-like state, characterized by cooler temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and opposing atmospheric circulation patterns to those seen in an El Niño. However, there are different explanations for this discrepancy, sparking a lively scientific debate.
The ambiguity surrounding the future prevalence of El Niño and La Niña poses a challenge to our ability to predict specific aspects of climate change, including its impact on hurricanes.
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Given the intricate nature of these complexities, reaching a definitive conclusion regarding the influence of climate change on certain extreme weather occurrences, such as Daniel, can prove arduous, if not unattainable. This realization offers no solace; climate change may indeed be exerting a more significant impact on numerous events than anticipated. Consequently, adopting a global risk management outlook necessitates heightened motivation to discontinue the combustion of fossil fuels in order to prevent such calamities.
Simultaneously, we must strive to acclimate to the current climate conditions. This entails the essential task of upholding our basic infrastructure. A key example of the consequences that can arise from neglecting this responsibility is evident in Libya, where the failure of dams resulted in a severe catastrophe that could have potentially been avoided. Similarly, in the United States, we have numerous aging dams that are in a state of disrepair. Even without considering the impacts of climate change, it would be advantageous for us to prioritize their maintenance. Alternatively, if these dams are no longer necessary, it would be prudent to consider their removal. Our understanding of climate change and its association with extreme weather events should foster a stronger sense of motivation in addressing these concerns, and the uncertainties surrounding climate change should further emphasize the need for such actions.
