Climate Talks Unveil Divisions as Nations Consider Abandoning Fossil Fuels
As climate talks continue, the focus shifts from glamour to the essential task of negotiators dealing with the complex challenge of transitioning away from fossil fuels
The initial week of the COP28 climate talks concluded without the initial excitement of breakthrough announcements, leaving behind a sense of unease regarding the world's inaction towards the primary cause of the climate crisis: fossil fuels.
The pavilions, resembling trade show booths, have been showcasing various initiatives such as zero-carbon shipping and nuclear fusion energy. These pavilions are now beginning to clear out, with one European country's pavilion being almost deserted, and another representing climate vulnerable states completely dark and unoccupied. Three staff members from the European nation were seen rushing to catch a flight home, signaling the winding down of the event.
The glamorous early days of the summit are now a thing of the past. What remains is the challenging and diligent work of negotiators from various countries as they address the complex issue of fossil fuels, striving for what could be the most ambitious COP outcome in years.
However, the summit's president is still a topic of discussion among journalists, delegates, and civil society groups, as recent remarks have overshadowed the ongoing negotiations.
Comments from Sultan Al Jaber that emerged on Sunday caused a stir in Expo City in Dubai: During a panel discussion in late November, he dismissed the idea that there is "no science" supporting the need to phase out fossil fuels in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the objective of the Paris climate agreement. Al Jaber, who also holds a position in the oil industry, passionately reaffirmed his dedication to climate science the following day, stating that the phasing out of fossil fuels is "inevitable" and "essential."
Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President, speaks at the meeting on December 2.
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Several days later, UN climate chief Simon Steill was questioned by a reporter about Al Jaber during a news conference on Wednesday. He declined to comment on the controversy, stating that his current focus was on the critical negotiations at the summits.
US climate envoy John Kerry also avoided addressing similar questions. Although Kerry has previously expressed support for Al Jaber's COP presidency, he chose not to discuss the matter at a press conference on Wednesday. In an earlier statement to POLITICO, Kerry suggested that Al Jaber's comments may have been misunderstood and could benefit from clarification.
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Aligning climate action with scientific findings is now more critical than ever. 2023 is set to become the hottest year on record, raising concerns among scientists about the accelerating impact of climate change surpassing their earlier predictions. This year's global average temperature is projected to be approximately 1.4 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels, just slightly below the threshold set in the Paris Agreement.
Attendees at the talks are feeling the weight of the climate crisis, and there are now concerns that Al Jaber's remarks may start to influence the negotiations. Isabel Rutkowski from Germany, a member of the European Youth Forum, expressed frustration, stating "The whole COP has been a conflict of interest. It's frustrating because the science is pretty clear, and you have a COP president who is not following science. It's crazy."
A frustrating distraction
Whether Al Jabers comments will have an impact on final language around fossil fuels is yet to be seen, but countries are deeply divided over the issue.
The most recent version of the summit's main agreement contained various options: one proposing a phase-out of fossil fuels - a measure widely endorsed by the majority of climate scientists. Another suggested a phase-down of fossil fuels, which is a weaker stance and allows for the possibility of increased planet-warming pollution in the future. A third option was to completely omit any language regarding fossil fuels.
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck countered skepticism regarding the ability of Europe's largest economy to eliminate coal usage by 2030, despite increasing its use in response to the energy crisis.
The fate of the global climate summit could hinge on these seemingly insignificant words. According to BenjamÃn MurguÃa, a technical advisor to the Mexican negotiators, the Mexican delegation is in favor of a "phase-down" of fossil fuels instead of a "phase-out" due to challenges in their home country's parliament. While the delegation does not outright refute Al Jaber's remarks, MurguÃa finds the resulting controversies unproductive.
MurguÃa expressed frustration and a desire for more progress and "action," with fewer distractions. He emphasized Mexico's vulnerability, citing the devastation caused by Hurricane Otis, which resulted in numerous deaths and severe damage to coastal cities. MurguÃa added that efforts are underway to rebuild Acapulco.
Reaching agreement on the use of fossil fuels was expected to be challenging. According to the UN's Stiell, there was a range of viewpoints among the nations at the summit. Two sources present during a late-night drafting session informed CNN that the US, China, and Saudi Arabia requested numerous revisions to the draft before its publication. Negotiators from these countries were instructed to carefully and precisely edit the text.
The US was described by a delegate from the Philippines, representing the G77 nations - a coalition of developing countries - as taking a "broadsword" to the agreement, with nearly 200 edits or comments, the sources said.
At the climate summit in Expo City in Dubai, Bola Tinubu, Nigeria's president, Xie Zhenhua, China's special envoy for climate change, COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, and John Kerry, US special presidential envoy for climate, were pictured from left to right on Saturday. The image was captured by Hollie Adams/Bloomberg/Getty Images.
Some of India's representatives have voiced concerns about the gradual elimination of fossil fuels, sources say, although the country has previously endorsed a gradual reduction.
CNN is seeking comments from the US, China, Saudi Arabia, and India.
Al Jaber's impact on the discussions is expected to become more apparent next week, as ministers and senior officials, along with other delegates, openly address this issue in public sessions, according to Tom Evans, a policy advisor specializing in climate diplomacy and geopolitics for the E3G climate consultancy. He also noted that the controversy could ironically lead to positive results.
"The increased scrutiny on the fossil fuel industry and the discussion of transitioning away from fossil fuels may ultimately help hold them accountable. If the transition goes wrong, the UAE will be held accountable," Evans stated. He also warned that other countries were also hindering progress on phasing out fossil fuels, and that the failure to do so would not be solely the fault of the UAE.
"But, we do see that pressure now playing into the discussions, constructively," he said.
