Unpredictable Showdowns Await: Arsenal's Underestimation Against Bournemouth | Brace Yourselves for Heung-Min Son's Impact against Liverpool

Arsenal could be in for a massive shock at Bournemouth, writes tipster Jones Knows, who takes aim at the weekend's Premier League card.

Aston Villa vs Brighton, Saturday 12.30pm

After witnessing Aston Villa secure two consecutive Premier League victories, my belief that they were an overrated team about to enter a period of poor results has been proven wrong. However, their lackluster performance at home against Everton, where they were outplayed in every aspect, gives me hope that my initial theory still holds true regarding Unai Emery's struggles to maintain consistent success in the early stages of a new job.

It is quite revealing that Villa conceded 1.83 expected goals to an average Everton attack, including four significant scoring opportunities. It is important to note that Villa did not field a significantly weakened team for this match.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

: Brighton, who have an average of over two goals per game in 38 Premier League matches under Roberto De Zerbi, shouldn't be given opportunities like that. Their ability to maintain leads is commendable, as they have won their last eight games when scoring first. Whenever they are priced as an underdog in the win-draw-loss market, like they are at 8/5 with Sky Bet, I am always inclined to support them. It seems an away win is likely.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

In their last 12 away games, Arsenal has faced teams that finished in the bottom half of the table. These matches have only seen an average of 1.9 total goals per game. Excluding the 2-2 draw against West Ham, who later went on to win a European trophy, the average drops to 1.7 goals per game. The current market prediction of just over three goals for this match seems too high, making under 2.5 goals at 6/4 with Sky Bet an attractive option.

I would also like to highlight Andoni Iraola's success with Rayo Vallecano against the top three teams in Spain. This is a valid point to consider. His tactics have effectively shut down elite attacks, as evidenced by Rayo Vallecano's recent game against Brighton where they held the usually dominant Seagulls at bay for 45 minutes. This performance makes me believe that Iraola is starting to implement his ideas with his Bournemouth team, despite their lack of wins so far.

In 13 matches against Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid, his Vallecano side consistently avoided losing by more than one goal in notoriously low-scoring games. On average, these matches saw just 2.2 goals per 90 minutes.

Image:

Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola can lead his team to a shock victory

Furthermore, securing victory in 12 out of those 13 fixtures resulted in less than 3.5 goals - an impressive accomplishment considering the resources at Iraola's disposal in comparison to the top contenders. If Bournemouth effectively communicates their strategy, they possess the necessary tools to make this afternoon a highly challenging one for the Gunners. Given the odds, placing a bet on Bournemouth to triumph with under 2.5 goals in the match, currently available at 12/1, appears to be a worthwhile option.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Bournemouth to win & under 2.5 goals (12/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Everton vs Luton, Saturday 3pm

Everton are 1/2 with Sky Bet to win a Premier League home match.

Consider this for a moment.

It evokes a sense of discomfort and unease, doesn't it? This team barely managed to avoid relegation last season, and in the current campaign, they have failed to score a single goal in their home matches. Additionally, they have not been able to score more than once in their previous 16 games at Goodison Park, spanning over a year of football.

However, two recent impressive performances at Brentford and Aston Villa, along with the overall results not quite reflecting the performance levels at Goodison Park, where they have underachieved on their expected goals by a significant margin of 12 goals, provide some context. Sean Dyche's style of play remains difficult to face, especially when he has both Beto and Dominic Calvert-Lewin in top form as his central strikers.

Regardless of one's opinion on Luton's prospects this season, it is worth noting that they possess a well-organized defensive structure capable of shutting down teams of Everton's caliber. Last season, they conceded the fewest away goals (18) and secured the joint-most away clean sheets (11) in the entire EFL.

Fulham had a tough time breaking down their opponents during their previous away game, resulting in an expected goals figure of only 0.95. Given that Everton appears to have a slim chance of winning and the possibility of a low-scoring match, it would be wise to back the under 2.5 goal line and take a chance on Luton avoiding defeat. This wager pays out at 9/4 on the Bet Builder with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

Casemiro's goal during the recent 3-0 victory against Crystal Palace marked his 11th goal for Manchester United since last season and his fourth of the current campaign. The inclusion of Sofyan Amrabat in the midfield will only enhance Casemiro's involvement in United's attacking strategies, whether it be during open play or, more likely, set pieces. With a high potential for Erik ten Hag's team to control the shots count and score multiple goals, it is worth considering Casemiro's prices in terms of his attacking statistics.

Image:

Casemiro has excellent odds of at least two shots against Crystal Palace, with a 11/10 rating. In his previous 30 games for United, he has averaged 1.96 shots per 90 minutes. Additionally, he has registered two or more shots in seven out of his last 12 games. Considering the expected comfortable performance by Ten Hag's men, the odds of 11/10 offered by Sky Bet for Casemiro to achieve the same feat again are a valuable choice.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Newcastle vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Burnley faces a tough challenge in their upcoming match. This will be their fifth game out of six against top-eight finishers from last season. Furthermore, the timing couldn't be worse as they will be up against a resurgent Newcastle side that recently defeated Sheffield United and Manchester City. While Vincent Kompany's influence will eventually improve Burnley's performance, this particular task appears to be quite daunting. As such, Newcastle is favored by Sky Bet with 2/7 odds of securing all three points.

Burnley may find their best chances through set pieces. Last season, Newcastle topped the charts in terms of shots and expected goals created from set pieces in the Premier League. In their commanding victory over Sheffield United, both Dan Burn and Sven Botman scored headers from such situations. This aspect of their gameplay poses a significant threat to Burnley, who will undoubtedly face numerous challenges from Newcastle in these scenarios.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Defensive Weakness and Costly Mistakes

West Ham vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm

Kompany's squad is noticeably lacking in presence when it comes to defending set plays, resulting in three goal concessions through this method already. Notably, Jonny Evans had a goal disallowed during Manchester United's victory. However, the betting odds of 50/1 for both Burn and Botman to score the first goal seem excessive given their performance.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Potential Advantage for David Moyes

West Ham vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm

David Moyes will undoubtedly be delighted at the opportunity to exploit Sheffield United's vulnerability from wide areas using James Ward-Prowse's set-piece expertise. The Blades have struggled immensely in defending set pieces this season, allowing the highest number of shots (38), expected goals (3.57), and goals (4). As demonstrated in their previous match against Newcastle, they were completely overrun in that aspect, making them particularly susceptible to a pummeling by Moyes' team.

I fancy Tomas Soucek to score a header at 14/1 with Sky Bet. Despite his declining performance in open play, David Moyes still considers him a key player. However, this may hinder West Ham's progress this season. Soucek has started in 121 games under Moyes, making him the most frequent outfield player, due to his presence and threat in direct play.

In his last 11 Premier League matches, Soucek has failed to score but has attempted 17 shots on goal, resulting in an expected goal value of 1.91 - a promising return. Nine of these attempts were headers, one of which was impressively saved by Alisson during the defeat at Anfield. Considering the limited opposition, the odds offered by Sky Bet for Soucek to score with a header seem quite generous. He netted a goal in the recent match against Lincoln and in the 3-1 victory over Bačka Topolaso. Therefore, I am confident in backing him to score another header in this game, especially with the added price boost.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Tomas Soucek to score a header (14/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Genuine Value in Manchester City Matches -

Wolves vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Finding genuine value in Manchester City matches can be quite challenging. However, there is an effective strategy emerging when it comes to backing Erling Haaland to score headers, considering the attractive odds available. Surprisingly, the markets have not fully recognized his aerial threat yet.

Out of Haaland's impressive tally of 36 Premier League goals last season, an impressive number of seven were scored through headers. Standing at over six feet tall and benefiting from exceptional service from some of the world's best, it is hardly surprising that Haaland is a terrific finisher in the air. Additionally, it is important to note that Man City is no longer solely reliant on intricate passing plays to reach the goal. They now adopt a more direct approach, particularly when delivering the ball into the box. This decision is an obvious one, given the presence of such a dominating force in the center.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Tomas Soucek to score a header (14/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Wolves vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

:

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Tomas Soucek to score a header (14/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Genuine Value in Manchester City Matches -

Wolves vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Image:

Erling Haaland scores with his head to give Man City the lead against Sheffield United. He is currently leading in headed goals this season in the Premier League, with 2 goals. The odds for him scoring against Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest were 6/1 and 7/2 respectively. If you had blindly backed him at these odds, you would have made a significant profit. Sky Bet is now offering odds of 9/2 for him to score with his head in this match, so there is no reason to doubt his ability.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3

Tottenham vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Image:

Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool, live on We

Tottenham would be my top choice to watch if I were to spend money on a team. The upcoming game between Tottenham and Liverpool is expected to be exciting and unpredictable, with both teams having strong attacking capabilities. Betting odds on a 0-0 scoreline are currently at 22/1, which is a rare occurrence for matches between top teams. The projected number of goals in this game is close to four, making the odds of over 3.5 goals at 4/5 quite high. However, instead of betting on this outcome, I recommend focusing on Heung-Min Son. Son is likely to challenge Liverpool's offside trap consistently, especially in his new central striking position. In his last three starting appearances, Son has scored five goals, showcasing his impressive form. Moreover, in his 11 Premier League starts against Liverpool, he has an expected goal value of 5.81 and has found the net five times.

The issue we encounter here is the price associated with his performance, which is rather unimpressive at 6/4 with Sky Bet. However, there is a method to enhance it by including the probability of him being caught offside at least once in the match. Thanks to the Bet Builder feature, this inclusion elevates the price to 7/2. It is worth noting that he has been caught offside 11 times in the 11 starts against Jurgen Klopp's side.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

The aforementioned details highlight the problem of his price, 6/4 with Sky Bet, which is considered mediocre. However, there is a solution to enhance it by considering his likelihood of being caught offside at least once during the match. By utilizing the Bet Builder feature, this addition significantly increases the price to 7/2. Notably, in his 11 starts against Jurgen Klopp's side, he has been caught offside 11 times.

Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Image:

The Nottingham Forest vs Brentford match will be broadcast live on We. Thomas Frank, a skilled strategist, has encountered difficulties in finding the right balance for his team this season. Brentford has only managed to defeat Fulham in a 90-minute match across all competitions. Considering Nottingham Forest's strong home record, having lost just two out of their last 17 matches at the City Ground, the odds of 6/4 for an away win from Sky Bet seem rather low. Personally, I find the option of Forest on the draw no bet market at 10/11 to be more promising.

I prefer taking a chance on the 50/1 first goalscorer price of Aaron Hickey for Brentford, even though it may seem unlikely. Hickey, the Scottish full-back, has become a regular player in the Brentford side, starting their last 11 Premier League matches. He is also showing improvement under Frank, as expected.

Furthermore, Hickey's attacking contributions from his position as a full-back have increased recently. He has taken seven shots at the goal in his past five games, including an attempt from a difficult angle against Newcastle, which tested Nick Pope. Despite never having scored for the Bees, there is potential for a goal this weekend, and it would be unwise to overlook the attractive odds of 50/1.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Aaron Hickey to score first (50/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Fulham vs Chelsea, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Image:

Fulham vs Chelsea, live on We

I'm having a hard time with this fixture as someone who values statistical analysis when assessing teams. All the data suggests that I should support Chelsea at even odds with Sky Bet, but my instincts tell me otherwise. I'm undecided.

I rarely trust Fulham as a team because they consistently outperform their expected performance data. The quality of scoring opportunities they give to their opponents is equivalent to 1.79 expected goals per 90 minutes, a value that should classify them as a team in danger of relegation. This situation has not improved for them this season. Last season, Southampton suffered relegation with an expected goals against record of 1.63 per 90 minutes.

Marco Silva's team has been consistently outperforming their expected goals conceded this season, which is the best record in the Premier League. Once again, they are proving their resilience.

I have been anticipating a decline in Fulham's performance, expecting them to struggle like a typical relegation team, but they continue to defy expectations. Despite losing Aleksander Mitrovic, they remain defiant. Even in a game against Luton, where they were expected to concede more goals, they managed to secure a victory. Silva's team has truly baffled me.

Chelsea, on the other hand, has had a devastating start to the Premier League season. The underlying statistics indicate that they have experienced an unprecedented run of bad luck, both in terms of expected goals scored and conceded. Based on these metrics, Chelsea currently ranks sixth for expected goals scored and third for expected goals conceded.

Meanwhile, Mauricio Pochettino's team has consistently outperformed their opponents in terms of creating quality scoring opportunities throughout all six of their Premier League matches this season.

What to do then? Trust the numbers? Or go with my gut which is telling me to swerve Chelsea? Numbers wins.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2