Unfavorable for Iran, Despite Gaining from Escalating Tensions
The Middle East at a critical crossroads: Iran's delicate balance amid escalating tensions, weighing the implications
The situation in the Middle East is currently at a critical point.
Recent events have escalated tensions, as the US and UK conducted strikes on Houthi forces in Yemen in an attempt to cease their prolonged attacks in the Red Sea. In a separate incident, the US unilaterally launched additional strikes, specifically targeting a Houthi radar facility.
The strikes pose a potential threat of escalating a broader regional conflict that neither the US nor the Houthis' supporters in Iran seem to desire. Following Hamas' October 7 attacks on Israel and the subsequent Israeli offensive in Gaza, Iran's "axis of resistance" - a network of Shia militias across four Middle Eastern countries - has been mobilized throughout the region.
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The military expert analyzes the response to Houthi attacks, highlighting the effectiveness of retaliatory measures. Additionally, Hezbollah engaged in daily confrontations with Israeli forces at the Lebanon-Israel border, while Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria targeted US military positions with numerous attacks.
The ongoing back-and-forth has been just shy of escalating into a full-blown regional war, presenting significant challenges for US President Joe Biden's foreign policy. Iran is carefully weighing its tactical military advances against the risk of a larger conflict, as its network of armed groups focus on the ultimate objective of securing a ceasefire in Gaza. The devastation caused by Israel's assault has sparked allegations of genocide at the United Nations, which Israel vehemently denies.
It has been a perilous undertaking, one for which each of the armed groups have paid a steep price. Hezbollah in Lebanon has mourned the loss of nearly 200 fighters since October 8. In Iraq, US strikes have inflicted significant damage on the infrastructure of Iranian-backed fighters. As for Yemen, the extent of the damage caused by the recent deadly strikes on Thursday is still unclear, but both the US and the UK claim to have targeted positions used by the Houthis to launch attacks on the Red Sea, potentially weakening the group's grip on the shipping route.
Houthi forces seize and board the cargo ship Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea on November 19, 2023.
Houthi Media Center/AP
“The strikes are a direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks on international maritime vessels in the Red Sea, including the first use of anti-ship ballistic missiles in history,” Biden stated. “These attacks have put US personnel, civilian mariners, and our partners in danger, disrupted trade, and threatened freedom of navigation.
However, the increase in violence has also benefited Iran's proxies and their supporters in Tehran. The popularity of these groups has grown in the region, as they have regained favor in an energized Arab and Muslim community after years of internal political struggles and corruption allegations.”
On January 5, 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden delivered a speech at Montgomery County Community College in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania during a campaign event. Biden highlighted the importance of protecting democracy and fundamental freedoms, emphasizing that they are at risk if former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected to the White House. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Biden says hes sent a message to Iran with Yemen strikes, calls Houthis a terrorist organization
Rym Momtaz, a Consultant Research Fellow for European Foreign Policy and Security, noted that the Houthis have taken advantage of the current war to undergo a successful rebranding effort, changing their image from a destructive Iran-backed terror organization in Yemen to an effective military force supporting the Palestinians and challenging the US. In addition to increasing their popularity, they have gained tactical advantages, including leveraging their ongoing peace negotiations with Saudi Arabia amid concerns about the impact of US and UK attacks on their conflict with Sanaa.
In Lebanon, the recent border tension appears to have overshadowed the country's severe economic crisis and Hezbollah's role in exacerbating it. As Israel finds itself on the defensive in the border region with Lebanon, from which most of its inhabitants have evacuated, Hezbollah has gained leverage to advocate for a diplomatic resolution aimed at reclaiming small portions of Lebanese territory under Israeli control.
An Israeli artillery unit fires across the border towards Lebanon on January 11, 2024 in northern Israel.
Amir Levy/Getty Images
The renewed attacks on US troops in Iraq and the subsequent US retaliatory strikes on Iranian-backed groups have prompted the Iraqi government to renew efforts to end the presence of the American military in the country. This move is likely to please the leaders of the Iranian regime. However, escalating tensions only serve Iran to a certain extent. If these lower-level confrontations develop into a full-scale war with the US, Iran's paramilitary allies could suffer significant losses. This would jeopardize Iran's increasing influence in the region, undermine its core foreign policy objectives, and create internal turmoil, particularly as the regime continues to grapple with aftermath of protests that swept through the country a year ago.
"The Iranian people are making efforts to avoid getting involved in a conflict. The majority of their population is strongly opposed to the idea of war," stated Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C. "I believe they would find themselves in a situation similar to (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu, where a war would lead to a unification around their country rather than their leadership."
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South Africa has brought a genocide case against Israel to the ICJ. Parsi cautions against minimizing the significance of a ceasefire in Gaza, as it could bring about a reduction in tensions in the region. He also suggests that the Biden administration is trying to carefully navigate the situation, aiming to give Israel flexibility without sparking a wider regional conflict.
"According to Parsi, the ongoing war in Gaza is fueling the Houthi and militia attacks, as well as tensions between Lebanon and Israel. The Houthis temporarily halted their attacks on the Red Sea during a six-day truce between Hamas and Israel in November. Meanwhile, the escalation is expected to continue, with both US and Iran-backed actors attempting to manage their confrontations and prevent further escalation. The clashes will also give Tehran leverage, as seen in the recent strikes in Yemen."
Momtaz stated that the US is currently facing a strategic challenge. It is crucial for them to ensure the freedom of navigation and secure international trade in the Red Sea, while also preventing the escalation of conflicts into a full-scale war on other fronts.
