Unexpected Downfall: Analyzing Newcastle's Struggles After Defeats against Powerhouse Clubs, Man City, Liverpool, and Brighton
Newcastle's recent defeats against Man City, Liverpool, and Brighton have left Eddie Howe's side in 14th place in the Premier League After a promising start with a 5-1 win over Aston Villa, they now face a crucial match against Brentford Watch the game live on Sky Sports Premier League this Saturday at 5pm
Newcastle had a successful run last season, securing Champions League football by overpowering their rivals. However, this season has begun with a stumble, with three losses out of the first four games. This unexpected start is disappointing, especially considering the hefty £130m spent on transfers. Yet, it is not entirely surprising, as there are factors that indicated a slow start was probable. It may require some time for Newcastle to regain the consistency they had last season.
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Newcastle United
Brentford
Saturday 16th September 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
Newcastle's opening fixtures have posed a considerable challenge. All four of their initial adversaries concluded within the top seven positions in the previous season. Last year, Eddie Howe's team managed to accumulate a mere four points from these encounters, which amounts to only a solitary additional point compared to their current total.
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Newcastle find themselves in the 14th position in the lower half of the table as they prepare for the upcoming round of matches. Their next challenge is against Brentford, who currently hold the ninth spot and the match will be broadcasted on Sky this Saturday. However, the future schedule seems more promising for Newcastle as their next five opponents did not finish in the top half of the table last season. It is important to note that these matches will be scattered between midweek fixtures for the Champions League.
Newcastle's strength in the previous season can be attributed to the consistency in their selection, particularly in their defensive line. The recent loss to Brighton was only the eighth instance since August 2022 where one of their preferred back four players did not start.
Whenever changes were required, the team's performance saw a noticeable decline. This decline was evident not only in terms of wins, points, and goals conceded but also in the number of shots faced, which increased by over 50 percent.
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Last season, Newcastle made limited adjustments to their pack, with Arsenal being the sole Premier League club to have made fewer alterations to their starting XI. However, with the upcoming European games on the horizon, it is expected that the team will make more changes to their lineup in the coming months, requiring Newcastle to improve their adaptability.
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Please open the Privacy Options. The addition of new players is expected to enhance the team's performance. Manager Howe has allowed most of them sufficient time to adapt, with the exception of Sandro Tonali. Although the Italian midfielder made an impressive debut, his contribution has decreased in recent matches.
Newcastle's opponents have discovered a convenient pathway through their middle third this season. Presently, only Bournemouth has permitted adversaries to accomplish a greater number of successful passes between their defense and midfield lines. Additionally, just five clubs have experienced a higher number of opponents evading their players with precise passes—an area in which Howe's team excelled last season.
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Furthermore, there has been a decrease in performance moving forward. Astonishingly, Newcastle currently holds the 18th position in terms of passes made into the box, despite ranking second in the Premier League last season. This indicates that the midfield combination has yet to achieve the ideal equilibrium at both ends of the pitch.
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Despite its slow start, Newcastle's underlying metrics indicate that it is unlikely to result in prolonged frustration. By emphasizing a team's expected goal difference, which essentially measures how many more goals a club is projected to score compared to their opponents, it provides an insightful perspective beyond mere results and league standings, directing attention towards overall performance.
Newcastle finished last season in second place, surpassing Arsenal and trailing behind only Manchester City. If their attack had shown greater consistency, they could have achieved an even higher position, as they were one of the top-half teams with the lowest goal return.
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Despite a difficult beginning, injuries, and a revamped midfield, Newcastle currently holds the sixth position in expected goal difference, surpassing the likes of Tottenham and Manchester United. With a more advantageous schedule in the following weeks, their performance is expected to improve even more.
The addition of European fixtures presents a fresh obstacle to overcome. This will likely result in further modifications, and it will take time for new signings to make a significant impact. Securing a similar finish to last season will be a greater challenge, but there is little indication that Howe's team will not remain in contention for European football by May.
