Unbelievable Upset Alert: Luton Set to Stun Chelsea in Epic Friday Night Football Clash

Our resident tipster and betting guru Jones Knows makes the case for 12/1 Luton Town to beat flaky Chelsea on Friday Night Football.

Chelsea vs Luton, Friday Night Football 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Mykhailo Mudryk cost Chelsea £88.5m.

Luton have spent approximately £30m on players since 1992.

This could potentially be the most uneven match in Premier League history considering financial strength, trophies earned, and global influence. Rewinding the clock back 10 years, Luton found themselves in 14th place in the Conference, whereas Chelsea held the title of Europa League champions and were leading in the Premier League.

Although it may seem like a huge mismatch, I believe that Luton, who exhibited impressive attacking statistics in their loss against Brighton on the opening weekend, actually possess the necessary skills to cause some trouble at Stamford Bridge. I have witnessed much less likely away victories with odds of 12/1. Come along with me.

Luton prides itself on playing a direct style of football. During their match against Brighton, 25.6 percent of their passes were long, which was the highest among all teams that weekend. If they can maintain this average throughout the season, they will reach levels of direct play comparable to Burnley during the peak of Sean Dyche's era. This particular style of football has the potential to challenge Chelsea, especially with the strong and aggressive Carlton Morris leading the attack. He possesses similar qualities to Callum Wilson, which can make a significant impact in matches.

Chelsea's inconsistent performances since the beginning of last season, evident in their recent match against West Ham, have shown struggles when facing the league's four most direct teams. In eight matches against West Ham, Brentford, Nottingham Forest, and Everton under Dyche's management, Chelsea's record stands at one win, four draws, and three losses. Interestingly, they were considered favorites in all those matches, resulting in a significant underperformance compared to market expectations. While Mauricio Pochettino is the right man for the project, Chelsea is still a work in progress, exhibiting inconsistencies at both ends of the pitch. Hence, it seems sensible to take advantage of shorter odds and adopt an attacking approach against them.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Bournemouth's Defensive Woes

Bournemouth vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm

The defensive struggles at Bournemouth seem to have slipped past the attention of boss Andoni Iraola. Perhaps he missed the part in the pre-season dossier highlighting their abysmal performance in defending set pieces last season. The alarming statistic speaks for itself - Bournemouth conceded a staggering 21 goals from set pieces, excluding penalties, making them the team with the worst record in this regard. It is evident that they are in dire need of some assistance. Unfortunately, the initial indications under Iraola's management do not instill much confidence.

Iraola's Rayo Vallecano team has the worst record in terms of conceding goals from corners and free-kicks, with a total of 23 goals in his last two seasons in charge. This indicates a lack of concern for defensive organization in set piece situations, which Liverpool took advantage of on Saturday.

During the game, Virgil van Dijk hit the post and missed two other headers, while Ibrahim Konate also had a shot on goal. With this, Bournemouth's total expected goals conceded from set piece situations this season reached 1.04, which is the highest in the Premier League.

How do we benefit then? It's Cristian Romero. With a goal already under his belt this season and a shot at goal in both of his appearances, Romero proves to be a formidable attacker during set pieces. Furthermore, considering the Cherries' evident vulnerability, Romero appears to be undervalued in various markets. The Evens odds offered by Sky Bet for Romero to take one or more shots at goal standout, just like his generous price of 16/1 as an anytime scorer.

Image:

Cristian Romero scored for Spurs vs Brentford

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Cristian Romero to score (16/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Arsenal vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

It seems like Fulham is facing a challenging season ahead. With the departure of Aleksander Mitrovic, who scored an impressive 57 goals in the last two campaigns, the team must make crucial decisions to avoid getting dragged into a relegation battle. The question is, did they anticipate Mitrovic's exit? It doesn't appear so, and this raises concerns for me.

With only a week left in the transfer market, Fulham needs to urgently strengthen their attacking options if they want to secure Premier League safety. Relying solely on the declining performance of Raul Jimenez is not a viable strategy. I am strongly tempted to take the offered odds of 4/1 for Fulham to get relegated. It seems like they may be at risk of overachieving in previous seasons and failing to progress. In terms of this particular match, I believe Arsenal will emerge victorious with fewer than 3.5 goals scored - a cautious but probable prediction.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Brentford vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm

The fact that the last four encounters between these two teams have ended in draws can be attributed to their strong defensive strategies and risk-averse approaches. When two teams that are difficult to defeat face each other, a draw is often the most likely outcome. Considering this, the odds of 12/5 offered by Sky Bet for a stalemate seem highly enticing.

Additionally, I have identified a player who is highly likely to receive a yellow card. This season, there have already been 14 instances of players being cautioned for time-wasting in the first 19 Premier League matches. Interestingly, a significant number of these incidents occurred during throw-ins, which have previously been considered a common method of slowing down the game to favor a team's interests. Notably, seven of these yellow cards were shown to full backs.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Everton vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Facing off against Brentford left-back Rico Henry, there is a notable opportunity in betting on the 6/1 odds offered by Sky Bet for Henry receiving a card. This price appears promising, especially considering that Henry has accumulated yellow cards in five of his previous eight appearances.

Just two matches into the season and Sean Dyche finds himself surrounded by doom. Neither points nor goals have been acquired, with no foreseeable change in trajectory. The situation might even deteriorate further before any improvement is seen. The Everton squad is currently lacking depth and does not possess the required Premier League quality, especially in the absence of the influential trio of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil, and Alex Iwobi. These three players possess genuine ability to make a significant impact, but unfortunately, they will be missing in this particular match.

Image:

Dominic Calvert-Lewin was forced off by injury against Aston Villa

Wolves have shown promise in their two matches, despite not being able to score. They have accumulated an impressive expected goal value of 4.48, which is the fourth highest in the league. Matheus Cunha has been a key contributor to this tally, as he has started the season in impressive form as the main striker for Wolves.

Cunha has made 18 runs into the opposition box, placing him fourth in the league in this aspect. Additionally, he has recorded four progressive carries that have resulted in goal-scoring opportunities, with only Phil Foden having more. It would be surprising if Cunha does not have a significant impact on the outcome of the match.

Considering these statistics, it is worth considering a 7/1 bet on Cunha scoring in an away win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Matheus Cunha to score in a Wolves win (7/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Manchester United's Performance Analysis

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Following a successful season with a top-four finish and a victory in the cup final, there seemed to be little concern for Manchester United's ability to continue progressing under Erik ten Hag. However, upon closer inspection of last season's performance data, it becomes apparent that their overperformance should have been a cause for caution. By evaluating the quality of chances created and conceded and converting them into expected points, it is evident that they exceeded expectations by nearly 13 points.

That type of modelling had them actually finishing as the sixth-best team.

Teams who overperform by such a figure do usually regress to that mean in the following season. Maybe United are.

With no noticeable enhancement in the quality of their starting eleven and several key players potentially declining due to age, there is a high probability that United is greatly overestimated when it comes to evaluating their chances in the market. This was evident in their recent match against Tottenham, where they were favored but ultimately lost. Additionally, United has conceded the highest number of shots in the box (31) and touches in their own box (88) so far this season, though the sample size is small. It is possible that Ten Hag could find a solution through his ruthless approach and problem-solving skills, but until I witness evidence of improvement, it would be beneficial to bet against United at their current prices. A sensible move would be to back Forest to win or draw at odds of 5/2 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Brighton vs West Ham, Saturday Night Football 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Brighton continues to impress this season, bringing immense joy to their fans. However, they are far from flawless, particularly when confronted with teams that swiftly reclaim possession.

Despite suffering 4-1 defeats against Luton and Wolves, both opponents displayed promising statistics in breaching Brighton's defensive line. This is particularly noteworthy as Brighton is currently without the presence of Moises Caicedo in that area. These matches resulted in an accumulation of 3.62 expected goals conceded and a total of 19 shots faced from within their own penalty area. This suggests that Wolves and Luton successfully crafted high-quality scoring opportunities within Brighton's defensive territory.

Jarrod Bowen remains West Ham's key attacker with their counter-attack game based around him finding pockets of space.

Image:

Jarrod Bowen celebrates his goal against Bournemouth - he is 9/2 to score this weekend

Bowen should find ample space down at the Amex Stadium in what promises to be a high-scoring match, from my perspective. His threat is evident from his impressive record of 14 shots on target in his last 13 games across all competitions, with six of those attempts resulting in goals. The odds of 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to hit the target and the enticing 9/2 for him to score anytime both present appealing betting options.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | Jarrod Bowen to have at least one shot on target (10/11 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Burnley vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm

The opposing team's frequent offsides against Aston Villa could be effectively exploited as a strategic attacking approach.

The Villa trap has successfully caught 63 players offside in their last 12 games across all competitions, including an impressive nine during their 5-0 victory over Hibernian on Thursday. Unai Emery is a big proponent of this tactic, utilizing it as a key weapon, with an average of 5.25 offsides per game over that 12-game period. Given this record, I fully anticipate Burnley to pose a threat to that average today.

Last season, they had the highest average of offsides in the Sky Bet Championship, with 2.2 per game. While they may not have achieved similarly high odds this season, the odds of 6/5 with Sky Bet for Burnley to be caught offside four or more times still present a feasible figure to consider.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Sheffield United vs Manchester City, Super Sunday 2.00pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Content must be

In the two games against Sheffield United, three centre forwards managed to score by receiving crosses into the box. Erling Haaland, who is currently listed as a 2/5 favorite with Sky Bet to score, has the opportunity to secure his seventh hat-trick for Manchester City with odds of just 7/1. However, there is a more strategic and potentially more lucrative approach to supporting Haaland in this match.

Out of Haaland's 36 goals in the Premier League last season, seven were scored with headers. His aerial finishing skills are impressive, which is understandable given his height of over six feet and the quality of service he receives from top players.

Man City no longer solely relies on their passing game to score goals. They also opt for a more direct approach, especially when targeting the box. This decision is a no-brainer considering the presence of the dominant striker.

Haaland is 11/2 to score a header and 3/1 to have a header on target. Use your head, back it.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Erling Haaland to score a header (11/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Newcastle vs Liverpool, Super Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

This has the ingredients for game of the season. It could get a bit wild out there.

When a highly exciting game is anticipated, I always focus my attention on the total shots on target market instead of the goal-line. This is because sometimes there is an opportunity to take advantage of a difference in the market. It's also a thrilling bet to make, as it allows for a genuine interest in both teams' attacking efforts.

In situations where there is a high probability of goals being scored, the number of shots on target should reflect that. However, there appears to be a favorable opportunity in the pricing, with odds of 6/5 offered by Sky Bet for 11 or more shots on target in the match. Whenever Liverpool's performance is not at its best, their shots on target numbers tend to exceed market expectations. This is notably due to their defense and goalkeeper being exposed, resulting from a lack of midfield balance.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-3

Newcastle is expected to achieve their market target of approximately six shots on goal, while Liverpool's offense has demonstrated its lethal potency during the initial two matches. Liverpool's victory over Bournemouth witnessed a remarkable 15 shots on target - one can anticipate a similar outcome in this instance.

Stream Premier League action on We with NOW for just £26 a month for 12 months. Cancel anytime.