Ukrainian defensive line faces mounting pressure from advancing Russian assault in the east
Recent reports suggest that a crucial Ukrainian defensive line in the eastern region is under increasing threat as Russian forces make significant advances. British defense intelligence sources and on-the-ground military bloggers have indicated possible breaches in the defensive perimeter over the past week.
A key Ukrainian defensive line on the eastern front seems to have been partially captured by Russian forces in the past week. According to a statement from British defense intelligence and information from military bloggers on the ground, the situation near the city of Avdiivka is concerning.
The UK's defense intelligence agency recently issued a report that painted a bleak picture of Kyiv's position near Avdiivka, which was captured by Russian forces in mid-February. The statement, shared on X, mentioned that Russian forces have been gradually advancing west of Avdiivka. By late March 2024, they likely gained control of two villages - Tonenke and Orlivka - and are still engaging in conflict for control of other areas in the vicinity.
The agency noted that Russia had a much larger number of personnel and weapons in the area compared to Ukraine. They were able to add 30,000 troops to their forces each month.
The villages, although not strategically important and with only a few hundred residents before the war, were part of the defensive line that Kyiv fought hard to maintain after losing Avdiivka. Their quick capture in just over a month following a harsh Russian attack shows the strength of the Russian advance and the vulnerability of Ukraine's defenses.
The road into Avdiivka is seen on February 14. Ukraine retreated from the city after a fierce battle.
The road into Avdiivka is seen on February 14. Ukraine retreated from the city after a fierce battle.
The UK statement highlights a very negative assessment of Ukraine's situation, especially as Kyiv's outlook in the conflict appears to be getting worse.
The Ukrainian military is in urgent need of weapons and financial support. Approximately $60 billion in military aid has been delayed in Washington by isolationist Republicans who support Donald Trump, the leading candidate for the GOP nomination.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives for 'Ukraine. Year 2024' conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 25, 2024.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives for 'Ukraine. Year 2024' conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 25, 2024.
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
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President Zelensky expressed to the Washington Post that without US aid, Ukraine will have to take steps backward gradually.
The soldiers in Kyiv urgently require ammunition to defend against Russia's recent attacks. Although the European Union has tried to help due to disagreements in Congress, the EU must first resolve its own internal conflicts regarding military assistance to Kyiv.
Ukraine’s General Staff has not made a direct comment on the British assessment. However, in their update on Monday, they mentioned the ongoing fighting for the village of Umanske. This village is located approximately 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) west of Tonenke, within Ukrainian territory.
When asked by CNN, Ukraine’s military chose not to provide any information on the current control of Tonenke.
Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov shared on social media a video he claimed showed a battle happening west of Tonenke.
Butusov later spoke to CNN over the phone and mentioned that Russian troops have been in control of Tonenke for some time. He also noted that while the frontline in the area hasn't been breached, it is slowly moving back as Russian forces make progress.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported that their forces successfully defended against attacks in several villages along the frontline, including Berdychi, Semenivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. These attacks were part of a series of Russian attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses. Troops interviewed by CNN in the frontline areas shared worries about the insufficient number of defensive positions, personnel, and ammunition.
Soldiers on are seen on an armored vehicle outside Avdiivka on February 14.
Soldiers on are seen on an armored vehicle outside Avdiivka on February 14.
Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces conducted a “large-mechanized assault” near Tonenke. They used 36 tanks and 12 armored personnel carriers. Ukrainian forces managed to repel the attack, specifically at Umanske.
Ukraine's situation worsened as reports from both Ukrainian and Russian bloggers indicated that Russian forces were making progress towards Chasiv Yar. This area is the main Ukrainian stronghold outside Bakhmut, which Russia took control of after a tough battle in May last year.
Multiple Ukrainian military bloggers discussed the intense battle for Chasiv Yar on Sunday. One blogger, known as Chameleon, highlighted the close proximity to enemy positions, approximately 650 meters (2,000 feet) away. This was also confirmed by pro-Russian blogger Operation Z.
CNN's Victoria Butenko, Svitlana Vlasova, and Yulia Kesaieva were contributors to this report.
Editor's P/S:
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to intensify, with worrying reports of Russian advances on the eastern front. According to British defense intelligence, Russian forces have made significant gains near the city of Avdiivka, capturing two villages and threatening a key Ukrainian defensive line. This is a testament to the strength of the Russian military and the vulnerability of Ukraine's defenses, which are weakened by insufficient ammunition and a lack of defensive positions.
The situation for Ukraine is dire, with President Zelensky acknowledging that the country will have to retreat if US aid is delayed. While the European Union has pledged support, internal disagreements over military assistance hinder their ability to provide immediate relief. This highlights the ongoing challenges faced by Ukraine in securing the necessary support to repel the Russian invasion. The conflict continues to take a heavy toll on both sides, and it remains to be seen how the situation will evolve in the coming weeks and months.
