Ukraine's Vital Connection to the US Faces Uncertain Future
Ukraine's crucial alliance with the US hangs in the balance as Russian President Putin gambles on the West's resolve America's internal challenges now pose a threat to its global leadership
Russian President Vladimir Putin's calculated gamble that America and the West will grow weary of his brutal war before he does is proving to be increasingly accurate.
Nearly seven weeks after President Joe Biden requested $60 billion from Congress to supplement Kyiv's arms and ammunition supply, along with an additional $14 billion for Israel, no progress has been made. Ukraine's aid has now become entangled in a separate dispute over immigration initiated by Republicans, dealing a significant blow to its chances. The deadlock, combined with the diminishing likelihood that Congress will take action before the holidays, prompted the White House to issue dire warnings on Monday, marking a pivotal moment in the conflict.
"We are running low on funds and time is running out," said Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, addressing reporters. The administration's tougher rhetoric indicated that any lawmaker opposing funding was aligning with the Russian leader. "A vote against aiding Ukraine is a vote to bolster (Vladimir) Putin's strategic position," he emphasized.
Sullivan's remarks followed a letter from Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young to House Speaker Mike Johnson, cautioning that "cutting off the supply of U.S. weapons and equipment will severely weaken Ukraine on the battlefield, risking the progress Ukraine has made and increasing the chances of Russian military victories."
Can the US really promise to be with Ukraine for as long as it takes?
Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, made a desperate plea to lawmakers not to abandon her country. "After achieving so much, we cannot afford to lose it now," she told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "We are all praying and hoping for additional support from the American people."
The anxious tone raised doubts about whether the administration's frustration was a political maneuver to push Congress into action or a genuine concern that the US military aid keeping Ukraine's resistance afloat is truly in jeopardy. Considering Congress's failure, particularly the chaotic House GOP majority, in fulfilling even the most basic government duties, the anxiety bordering on panic in the West Wing could be warranted.
Mounting uncertainty about the US commitment coincides with an impending harsh winter, during which Russia is anticipated to once again target Ukrainian civilians and the power plants that provide them with warmth. There are indications that Moscow has managed to rebuild its depleted forces and weapons, deploying new missiles and drones sourced from allies like North Korea and Iran. Additionally, Israel's conflict with Hamas has taken precedence over Ukraine in recent weeks, a situation that President Volodymyr Zelensky has openly expressed concern about.
As Ukraine's survival hangs in the balance, so does the reputation of the United States as a global leader. Just two weeks ago, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reassured Zelensky in Kyiv, promising, "We will remain with you for the long-haul." But can the US truly fulfill that commitment, especially in the context of the ongoing Ukraine funding struggle and the possibility of former President Donald Trump, who has shown animosity towards Ukraine and has a strong relationship with Putin, returning to the White House if he secures the GOP nomination next year?
The notion that the US would abandon a democratic, sovereign nation facing an invasion orchestrated by the Kremlin was once inconceivable. Such a move would not only undermine Western support for Ukraine, but also send a message to adversaries like Russia and China that US security guarantees to allies are unreliable. However, the shift in the GOP's ideology, moving away from internationalism towards an isolationist "America First" stance favored by Trump, has altered the assumptions about US power. The political dynamics that could reshape the world in a potential second term under Trump are already in motion in Washington, particularly in the House, and pose a threat to reshape US foreign policy.
Those in favor of continued aid to Ukraine caution that Putin is closely monitoring the situation. Republican Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, a member of the Intelligence and Foreign Relations committees, expressed his concerns at the Halifax International Security Forum last month, stating that "Vladimir Putin, I have reason to believe… believes he's going to win this war by outlasting us." He also noted that the Kremlin closely monitors the words spoken in the United States, Canada, and other allied countries, focusing on dissenters rather than the majority who support the aid.
Retired US Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that Moscow is closely observing the actions of the US Congress. "The big test of will is between the Kremlin and Western capitals-Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, and others," Hodges stated during a briefing organized by Spirit of America, a non-profit organization that collaborates with troops and diplomats to promote US values.
Americas domestic turmoil threatens its global leadership
The polarizing political influences that have paralyzed Congress and are fueling the potential for another Trump administration are also jeopardizing the financial support for Ukraine's resistance.
Right-wing Republicans are pushing for strict immigration policy changes at the southern border in exchange for Ukraine funding, but Senate Democrats find these demands unacceptable. Johnson's job may be at risk if he relies on Democratic votes to pass the Ukraine funding package. There is little trust or common ground between the Republican-led House and the Democratic-led Senate. Biden's declining approval ratings are making it difficult for him to sell continued massive aid to Ukraine to a public that is becoming increasingly skeptical amidst ongoing challenges in the US, including high food prices.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's failure to turn its promised counter-offensive into tangible progress has led critics to question the effective use of aid and the duration of the war. Johnson has expressed concerns about the lack of a plan for victory in Ukraine or a path to resolving the conflict. These concerns are valid, considering the significant taxpayer funds being utilized in the aid effort. However, the situation in Ukraine does not present easy answers to Johnson's inquiries. Putin seems prepared to engage in a war of attrition, with a high tolerance for Russian casualties, in an effort to weaken Ukraine and wait for political changes in the US and Europe that will undermine Ukraine's military capabilities. The reality is that Russia and Ukraine have been at war for over a decade, since Putin's annexation of Crimea in 2014. As the conflict reaches a stalemate, neither side is close to reaching negotiations to end it, as the stakes for both are too high to accept defeat.
The Ukraine aid package has become mired in the contentious issue of immigration in the US political landscape. President Biden has requested $13.6 billion for border security at the US-Mexico border, in addition to aid requests for Israel and Ukraine, as a way to facilitate the passage of the measure, which also includes $7.4 billion for Taiwan. However, Republicans are demanding policy changes and additional funding. In the House, they are advocating for new laws based on H.R. 2, a bill that would incorporate many of Trump's strict immigration policies and modifications to asylum law. Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of senators has been working for several weeks to find a compromise, but there were conflicting reports on Monday regarding the breakdown of their talks.
The Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer intends to increase pressure on Senate Republicans who support providing more aid to Ukraine but are constrained by the pro-Trump faction of their party. He aims to hold a vote this week on a Ukraine-Israel aid package, excluding immigration measures. Additionally, Zelensky will participate in a Senate classified briefing remotely on Tuesday. Schumer emphasized the importance of national security and the global threats to democracy and our way of life by autocrats and dictators in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. According to the New York Democrat, this is a pivotal moment in history.
A group of Republican senators, typically supporters of Ukraine aid, indicated on Monday that they could not proceed without attaching immigration changes to the measure. Texas Sen. John Cornyn cautioned that "our security cannot be prioritized lower than that of other countries, including allies such as Ukraine and Israel."
Although there is widespread support for Ukraine in the Senate, it appears that a complicated compromise is likely to arise. However, the GOP-controlled House's unpredictability and instability mean that an aid package faces an uncertain fate. The GOP majority has still not passed routine bills, such as one funding the US Defense Department. Furthermore, while the chamber backed an Israel funding bill, it was paired with cuts to the IRS, which Senate Democrats oppose. This indicates that House Republicans are more focused on partisan messaging than on governing or preserving US power and influence abroad.
Ukraine faces the impending threat of becoming more deeply embroiled in a looming government funding dispute in January and February. Moreover, there is no longer certainty that the US will continue providing financial support throughout the duration of the war, regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election. Meanwhile, in Moscow, Putin is observing and biding his time.
