The recent missile attack by Ukraine targeting the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet showcases their boldness in going after Russian facilities in occupied Crimea. It also highlights the vulnerability of crucial infrastructure in the region. Within a short span of time, Ukraine has successfully attacked a Russian military airfield in Saky, weakened air defenses along the northwest coast (including neutralizing an S-400 missile defense complex), and launched a missile strike on the principal dry-dock and ship-repair facility in Sevastopol. This attack has resulted in significant damage to an attack submarine and a landing ship.
The airfield in Saky was significantly damaged in the attack on Thursday, according to sources from Ukraine's Security Services (SBU). A naval base near Sevastopol also experienced an incident on Wednesday, with a substantial amount of smoke observed. Local authorities downplayed the situation, attributing it to the interception of drones. However, the Ukrainian military claims to have successfully targeted a Russian command post in close proximity to Sevastopol, specifically near Verkhniosadove.
The 744th Communications Center of the Command of the Black Sea Fleet was reportedly targeted by Ukrainian forces, as confirmed by satellite imagery. This action is seen as part of an apparent Ukrainian effort to target Black Sea Fleet facilities.
Footage shows smoke following a missile attack in Sevastopol.
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Smoke rises over Sevastopol following the attack on Friday.
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Russias Ministry of Defense said a Russian soldier was missing after Fridays missile attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.
The ministry stated that during the interception of a missile attack, air defense systems successfully shot down five missiles. The historical headquarters building of the Black Sea Fleet suffered damage as a consequence of the attack. According to Andrii Yusov, the spokesperson for Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Russia is utilizing Crimea as a "logistics hub" with the ultimate objective being the de-occupation of Ukrainian Crimea.
Ukraine's special forces recently conducted a successful commando raid on the Crimean coast, further escalating tensions in the region. Prior to this, Ukrainian commandos managed to seize oil platforms in the Black Sea, which provided them with a strategic advantage and hindered the Russian Black Sea fleet's ability to navigate freely. These platforms, referred to as the Boyko Towers, had been under Russian control ever since the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014.
A photograph displays the remarkable Crimean bridge, which serves as a connection between the Russian mainland and the peninsula across the Kerch Strait in Crimea. The picture was taken on July 17, 2023, and is credited to REUTERS/StringerTPX IMAGES OF THE DAY.
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Ukraine's recent focus on Crimea draws skepticism from corners of the Biden administration
Ukraine has numerous motivations to focus on Crimea. It signifies a political message that, despite the sluggish advancement on the front lines of its counteroffensive, Ukraine possesses the capability to significantly weaken the Russian military. Additionally, targets like the Crimea bridge hold both symbolic significance and strategic importance.
Furthermore, this action is part of a larger endeavor encompassing Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Its aim is to strategically strike at Russian logistics, fuel, maintenance, and command centers, thereby impeding their ability to provide provisions to the front lines.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has launched numerous cruise missile attacks on Ukraine and poses a threat to merchant ships using Ukrainian ports. Disrupting its operations and command facilities, as well as targeting vessels at sea and in dock, would be considered a victory, particularly following Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July. Recently, Ukraine also carried out an attack on a drone facility in Crimea. Russia has utilized drones to target Ukraine's Danube River ports.
Ukraine has put significant effort into weakening Russian air defenses in Crimea. This effort seems to be yielding results, as Ukrainian Neptune missiles (and possibly UK-provided Storm Shadows) have the capability to strike targets deep inside Crimea.
This image taken from UGC video, uploaded to Telegram with a watermark, shows smoke rising from the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
The Ukrainians seem to have disregarded criticism from certain US officials regarding their focus on Crimea as well. According to an unidentified senior US defense official who spoke to CNN, the Ukrainian strategy has unsettled the Russians to some extent, but it lacks meaningful impact. It might be beneficial for everyone if they shift their attention towards launching a counteroffensive.
The Ukrainians have valid reasons to target anything related to the Black Sea Fleet. According to the ISW, the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is currently involved in crucial defensive operations in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while the 22nd Army Corps of the Black Sea Fleet is defending positions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast. It is important to note that the Black Sea Fleet's control over the Saky airfield grants it authority over both ground-based and naval-based aircraft.
The Black Sea Fleet remains a formidable component of Russia's offensive capabilities, albeit gradually diminishing in strength. According to the ISW, the impact of the Ukrainian assaults on the fleet extends beyond the mere erosion of Russian naval capabilities.