The True Beneficiaries of a Stalemate in Ukraine: An Opinion

Editor's Note: Jade McGlynn, a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of "Russia's War" and "Memory Makers: The Politics of the Past in Putin's Russia," provides her own perspective in this commentary. Read more CNN opinion here.

Different and informative reactions have been observed in response to the recent statements made by Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, regarding a potential stalemate in the war between Ukraine and Russia.

Jade McGlynn

Jade McGlynn

In a recent extensive interview with The Economist, Gen. Zaluzhny presented solutions to issues that are already well-known to those who have had firsthand experience on the frontlines or have interacted with soldiers and instructors who have recently returned.

His interview does not reveal or admit anything. Instead, it serves as an intervention on behalf of Ukraine, urging for honesty.

Zaluzhny's call was not warmly received by everyone, and not everyone took it into consideration. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied that the war had reached a stalemate, and even his chief diplomatic adviser, Igor Zhovka, expressed doubts about the wisdom of participating in the interview altogether.

Some Western military analysts dismissed the generals' conclusions, mistakenly mistaking a pro-Ukrainian viewpoint for wishful thinking. Conversely, critics of Western support for Ukraine triumphantly referenced the interview as proof that Ukraine should have surrendered at a hypothetical earlier moment.

Speaking of vibrant imaginations, there have been widespread rumors that several of Ukraine's Western allies have been attempting to pressure Ukraine into agreeing to a ceasefire. If this is true, they have failed to grasp Zaluzhny's argument not due to a lack of intelligence, but because they are unwilling to acknowledge the context and motivations that come with this intervention.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyi meets with the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg on September 28, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Yan Dobronosov/Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images

The Russian and Ukrainian word for stalemate

Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Russian president, provides a valuable perspective for Western leaders to consider. In contrast to the essay, Peskov disagrees with the notion that the war is at a standstill. He asserts that Russia is determined to achieve all of its stated war objectives.

Peskov's statements serve as a timely reminder that it is not Ukraine, but rather Russia, that demonstrates a desperate desire to prolong the conflict despite numerous opportunities to cease the violence.

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Ukrainian servicemen of the Ukrainian Air Defence take part in a training in the Kyiv region on October 28, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Examining the underlying attitudes that contributed to this reluctance and will impede Ukraine's self-defense unless thoroughly reassessed offers significant benefits.

What winning looks like to the West

Perhaps the most evident drawback lies in the stagnant mentality of the Western world. It seems that the West is unwilling to devise a comprehensive strategy for this conflict. It appears that the United States is not inclined to support Ukraine's complete victory, defined as the regain of all its occupied territory. Western European leaders, including the British, who previously implored the US for increased weaponry, now opt to await Washington's stance rather than taking their own initiative to resolve a war that profoundly affects their continent, more so than North America.

NATO is not ready to offer credible deterrence via membership, even though other countries that were either part-occupied or at war have joined, namely West Germany.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics speaks during a press conference in Riga, Latvia May 31, 2023.

Ints Kalnins/Reuters

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The overall impression is reminiscent of Western indecisiveness, which can be understood by delving into the hidden implications of the phrase "Ukraine fatigue". It is suggested that this weariness is compelling leaders to seek alternative paths to resolve the conflict, potentially involving territorial concessions to Russia.

Why is the West feeling fatigued by this war when most Ukrainians strongly support the need to continue fighting? Would Western capitals still experience fatigue if Ukraine had recaptured more territories during the summer counteroffensive?

Honest answers to both questions reveal that Ukraine fatigue is not accurate. This is not about tiredness, but rather the West's lack of resilience, which is a natural outcome of the West's refusal to acknowledge the constraints of its own perspective.

For Putin, war is sustainable, peace is probably not

At first, the Russian leadership was widely ridiculed for their lack of understanding towards their Ukrainian adversaries. They struggled to perceive Ukrainians for who they truly are, instead viewing them through the lens of Russian historical fixations, propaganda, and imperialistic ideologies.

However, many Westerners still view Russia with a self-centered perspective. They assume that President Vladimir Putin makes decisions based on the same logical reasoning as they do. They also assume that Russian society is equally outraged by the war, or at least the sanctions and high mortality rate, as their own societies would be. Additionally, they believe that the elites in the Kremlin will rebel against the President if his war jeopardizes the assets and interests that are important to Western elites.

However, Putin is not concerned about any of these factors. He firmly holds his position of power and is preparing for another six-year term.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky speaksvia video conference during the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Monday, October 9.

Liselotte Sabroe/Ritzau Scanpix/AP

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Currently, a static war aligns favorably with Russia as it is socially and politically viable. There is no immediate necessity for mobilization, and the general public is mostly receptive to the ongoing conflict. This approach also ensures economic stability and is militarily feasible with ample stockpiles, enhanced production capacity, and assistance from affiliated nations such as Iran and North Korea. Moreover, there is no democratic influence compelling Putin to halt the war, and no viable frameworks exist for such pressure to arise.

Putin finds the war to be sustainable, whereas peace presents challenges. The ongoing war serves as a shield and rationale for an increasingly oppressive regime, a weakened social welfare system, and a centralized form of governance. Additionally, it unifies the population by creating an external adversary.

Conversely, if peace were to prevail, uncomfortable inquiries would arise. There would be a need to account for the sacrifices of numerous men: their bodies, and why the army was unable to accomplish the stated objectives of the military operation. Given these circumstances, it is comprehensible that Russia has not demonstrated any genuine desire to cease the war.

Putin has repeatedly stated that Ukraine does not exist. Russian officials bragged about kidnapping Ukrainian children and brainwashing them to hate their own country on an almost weekly basis. State journalists have produced numerous pages detailing their genocidal intentions. Moreover, Russia has developed an entire national security strategy that emphasizes the decline of the West and advocates for reclaiming its dominant position in a new multipolar order. This strategy has led to the restructuring of education, culture, and foreign policy, all of which aim to gradually prepare society for a state of war.

U.S. President Joe Biden addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on October 19, 2023. He discusses his strategies regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, humanitarian aid in Gaza, and ongoing assistance to Ukraine in their conflict with Russia. The photo is credited to Jonathan Ernst/Pool/Reuters.

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When Russia says it will pursue its war aims for as long as it takes, it has the ideological and literal infrastructure to back it up. The West doesnt.

Currently, the war does not present a significant threat to the Euro-Atlantic security order. There is no immediate need for direct intervention or troop deployment. However, some fail to recognize that Ukraine losing the war would indeed pose an existential threat to the Western security order.

If Ukraine were to be defeated, what would happen to the large quantities of weapons and refugees? How would Europe handle the resulting uprising among the population? What are the implications of a Russian victory on global nuclear proliferation? Will NATO continue to maintain its effectiveness?

Answering uncomfortable questions

Putin's ultimatum in December 2021 demanded a restoration of Russia's influence in Eastern Europe and a return of NATO to the 1997 borders. Despite the West's perception of it as a mere gambit or joke, Kremlin advisers I spoke to in the summer and autumn of 2022 were perplexed by this misinterpretation. It was, in fact, a serious negotiating position that Russia aimed to achieve, or at the very least, come close to.

If Western leaders were to handle Russia and Putin based on their consistent behavior, they would swiftly realize the urgency of formulating a strategy that adequately addresses the threat.

Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhny attends a celebration ceremony of the Independence Day of Ukraine, amid Russia's invasion of the country.

Gleb Garanich/Reuters

Maybe this is the reason why they avoid asking such questions and instead hold onto an idealized perception of a world that is non-existent, and perhaps has never been.

In doing so, they are setting Ukraine on a path to failure. According to Gen. Zaluzhny, Ukraine lacks the necessary weaponry, resources, and manpower to secure victory in the ongoing conflict. He presents a focused military strategy to reintroduce flexibility into what has become a stagnant war of positions.

Ukraine's allies need to adopt a flexible and courageous political approach that goes beyond mere financial and military assistance. It should involve a substantial transformation of European economic and social models. Russia has received more than 1 million shells from North Korea, a promise that the EU made to Ukraine but failed to fulfill. The EU should not find it difficult to match North Korea's support, as it is technically feasible. However, it appears that the EU lacks the will to do so.

Moreover, in order to devise an effective support strategy, it is essential to engage in honest discussions with the public about why backing Ukraine aligns with their own countries' immediate national interests. Many countries have neglected this dialogue for too long, as people have grown tired of the moralistic rhetoric contrasting freedom and tyranny.

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Connect with us on Twitter and Facebook. Unfortunately, in light of the global war on terror, these statements have become meaningless in the context of Ukraine. Furthermore, the use of moralistic language serves as a mere diversion from acknowledging the West's lack of a strategic plan for Ukrainian success. This stance will ultimately leave Ukraine defenseless, putting the lives of thousands at risk and jeopardizing its own population.

These conclusions are harsh and unsettling. However, how much does the influence of liberal democratic values and economic strength truly matter if North Korea, a close ally of Russia, can fulfill its commitments to its partners while the European Union fails to do so?

What significance does power hold if it remains unused? Ultimately, it leads to decline. If the Euro-Atlantic community wishes to prevent a sudden and severe decline, it is crucial to reflect on their current trajectory, shift direction, and this should begin with actions taken in Ukraine.