Trump's Influence on Biden's Diplomatic Efforts for Middle East Peace

When Senator Lindsey Graham visited Saudi Arabia last month, he met with Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman to discuss a significant deal. The deal involves normalizing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of whom share a common goal of isolating Iran. During the meeting, Graham and the Crown Prince decided to reach out to their mutual acquaintance, Donald Trump.

President Joe Biden and his team have found an unlikely ally in Graham. He has volunteered to help secure Republican backing for a potentially significant deal. This agreement may involve a US-Saudi defense pact and efforts towards a two-state resolution for Palestine.

Additionally, Graham has become a vital communication link with bin Salman, also known as MBS. He keeps Biden's team informed about his discussions with the influential crown prince.

Graham and MBS had a friendly chat with Trump last month, lasting about five minutes, as shared by two sources with CNN. The conversation mainly revolved around pleasantries and casual talk about the US election. Trump even mentioned his poll numbers at one point, one of the sources revealed. Surprisingly, the deal for normalization was not discussed at all during the call, according to both informants.

This phone call highlights Trump's influence on an agreement that US, Israeli, and Saudi officials deem crucial for long-term stability in the Middle East. Although the former president keeps tabs on the discussions, he is not actively involved, as mentioned by insiders.

An extension of the efforts made during the Trump administration to improve relations between the Arab world and Israel is currently in progress. This follows the 2020 Abraham Accords which led to Bahrain and UAE recognizing Israel's sovereignty.

There is a requirement for any US treaty to be approved by the Senate. However, there are worries among those participating in the negotiations that Trump might attempt to sabotage any future agreement under Biden, as he did earlier this year when he discouraged congressional Republicans from supporting a bipartisan immigration deal.

In this March 20, 2018, file photo, President Donald Trump meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.

In this March 20, 2018, file photo, President Donald Trump meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.

According to sources close to Trump, he thinks he could make a better deal with the Saudis if he becomes president again. However, he is not interested in interfering or trying to stop any potential agreements under Biden's administration.

A source close to Trump mentioned that the potential deal is not a top priority for him. The source advised Trump to focus on inflation, the economy, and crime instead of getting involved in the deal. They also expressed doubt about the feasibility of the deal.

Another person close to Trump informed CNN that Trump and his team are aware of the consequences of interfering in negotiations between the Biden administration and foreign leaders. They acknowledged that such actions would violate the Logan Act.

Time is ticking away.

According to two US officials, Trump's conversation with MBS was noticed in the White House. However, they emphasized that there is no proof that it impacted the ongoing discussions between Biden's representatives and the Saudi officials. The New York Times was the first to report on the call on April 3.

Graham told Biden officials about the conversation between MBS and Trump. He mentioned that they support his decision to keep Trump informed.

Graham explained, "They acknowledge the part I play in Trump's circle. They are happy to acknowledge his contribution in this matter."

Trump has been meeting with various foreign leaders in recent weeks. Despite some officials believing that MBS would prefer Trump to be back in the White House, there is no sign that Trump's potential rematch with Biden in the upcoming presidential election has affected the current efforts, according to two US officials.

However, the road ahead is not without obstacles. With the election drawing near and the region facing turmoil due to Israel's conflict in Gaza, those involved in the negotiations have stated that the window of opportunity is quickly diminishing.

A former Biden administration official expressed concern about time running out. They mentioned that a framework announcement and action from Biden during a lame duck session could be possible, but not before November. Despite this, Senator Graham remains optimistic. He believes the best opportunity to make progress would be under Biden in the coming months.

Graham is working hard to make sure the deal goes through during Biden's presidency. He believes Biden would be more successful in getting Democrats in Congress to support it.

“I think President Trump understands this is building on what he did,” Graham explained to CNN. He added, “If a Republican [president] did this deal, I think most Democrats would say no … I just think Biden could twist arms here.”

In Graham, finding a partner can be a rewarding experience. President Biden's administration came into power with a promise to change the US relationship with Saudi Arabia. Biden openly criticized MBS for his supposed involvement in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Despite Biden's efforts to distance himself from Trump's policies in the region, his key representatives have continued to engage in ongoing discussions and frequent visits to Riyadh. The focus has now shifted towards potentially building upon one of Trump's significant foreign policy successes.

This photo posted to X.com by the state news agency of Saudi Arabia shows Sen. Lindsey Graham meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on April 11, 2023.

This photo posted to X.com by the state news agency of Saudi Arabia shows Sen. Lindsey Graham meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on April 11, 2023.

From Saudi Press Agency/X.com

Graham is in a unique position to offer help due to his close relationships in the region. He has strong connections not only with MBS but also with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and key war member minister Benny Gantz.

Last spring, Graham started debriefing Biden administration officials after meeting with foreign leaders in the Middle East. According to sources familiar with the talks, Graham has met with Biden directly at least twice to discuss a normalization agreement. He also regularly communicates with President's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, special envoy Amos Hochstein, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Biden's team was close to finalizing a deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia last fall, with US officials believing it was just weeks away. However, everything changed when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.

Since the attack, the deal has become a key focus of the administration's regional policy. But it has also become more challenging to accomplish. US officials have noted that the terms of the agreement with Riyadh have evolved in the past few months.

Since October 7, the importance of a clear path to a two-state solution, with a significant Palestinian component, has become evident. Saudi Arabia is looking for specific language regarding Palestinians in any agreement. They are seeking a concrete pathway for the Palestinians, rather than just a general commitment. This issue remains a challenging point of contention.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is interested in forming a substantial defense pact with the United States. This pact would provide the kingdom with significant security assurances in the event of an attack. There are various levels of security agreements that could be established, with the most significant being similar to the mutual defense agreement outlined in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

The Saudis are eager to include their request for help with their civilian nuclear power program in the deal.

According to a spokesperson from the Saudi embassy in the US, the country believes that building ties with Israel should only happen after the war in Gaza ends, a Palestinian state is recognized, and a clear path towards a two-state solution is established.

The spokesperson mentioned that the kingdom is putting in a lot of effort to meet the goals on the timetable as quickly as possible.

According to Graham, there may not be another opportunity like this to successfully finalize such a comprehensive deal in a short period of time.

"This is a significant moment in world history," Graham stated. "I am committed to doing everything I can to finalize this deal because it will corner Iran, offer hope to the Palestinians, and positively impact the Middle East." Graham emphasized the importance of this moment and expressed confidence that all parties involved, including Biden, Trump, and himself, would benefit. "When reflecting on my time in the Senate, this would be a worthwhile achievement."

CNN’s Alex Marquardt contributed to this report.

Editor's P/S:

The article highlights the intricate diplomatic landscape surrounding the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, with the involvement of former US President Donald Trump. Senator Lindsey Graham emerges as a key player, facilitating communication between the Biden administration and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. While Trump maintains influence, he reportedly has no plans to interfere with the ongoing negotiations.

Despite the progress made during the Trump administration, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The conflict in Gaza and the need for a clear path to a two-state solution with a significant Palestinian component prove to be major sticking points. Saudi Arabia's request for a substantial defense pact with the United States and their civilian nuclear power program further complicate matters. However, Senator Graham remains optimistic about securing a comprehensive deal during Biden's presidency, citing the potential benefits for Iran's isolation, Palestinian hope, and the overall stability of the Middle East.