Finding a Path to Middle East Peace: Exploring the Possibilities

The tragic consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict manifest in the barbaric attack by Hamas on Israel and the subsequent violent aftermath. This highlights the urgent need to find a lasting solution.

Miriam Sapiro

In light of the escalating humanitarian crisis and the increasing risk of further escalation, it is crucial to find a viable path towards a comprehensive resolution, despite the challenges that may arise.

How would the path to achieving Mideast peace look, and what are the key issues that must be addressed? The recent visit by President Biden to Israel highlights the crucial role that US leadership will play, even though the chances of success may appear slim.

There is a precedent for achieving peace in the Middle East: The US played a crucial role in facilitating the peace agreement that put an end to the Bosnian war in the 1990s, which was riddled with territorial disputes and evidence of atrocities. I had the privilege of being part of the US team that led those negotiations. At the time, we were unsure of our chances of success, but we knew that we had to make the effort.

In 1995, the Balkans faced a grim situation. The region had been plagued by ethnic conflict and sectarian violence between Croatians, Serbs, and Bosnians since the breakup of Yugoslavia, resulting in a staggering death toll of nearly 100,000 individuals and the displacement of thousands more.

Despite multiple attempts by European countries to establish a peaceful resolution, these efforts had proven unsuccessful. The deployment of UN peacekeepers did little to protect civilians, as they hesitated to use force, even when evidence emerged of Bosnian Serbs committing ethnic cleansing and genocide against Bosnian Muslims.

On October 24, 2023, in Nir Oz, Israel, Israeli soldiers can be seen patrolling near the Gaza border amidst the ongoing clash between the Israeli army and Palestinian factions. This photo, taken by Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images, captures the tense atmosphere in the area.

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After exhausting all other alternatives, the US was compelled to intervene. Employing a blend of assertive diplomacy and the looming prospect of further NATO airstrikes targeting the Bosnian Serbs, Washington successfully orchestrated consensus on the essential foundations for peace talks held in Dayton, Ohio.

The US diligently communicated to Serbia, Croatia, and the Bosnian Muslims, each party invited to the negotiations, that non-cooperation would result in significant consequences. A comparable resolute approach and strong US leadership will likewise be imperative in forging any peace agreement in the Middle East.

Every peace negotiation presents unique challenges. However, the US experience in Bosnia offers valuable insights that can help address the current crisis. During the Dayton negotiations, we avoided direct engagement with the top Bosnian Serbs due to their involvement in atrocities, and instead had their interests represented by Belgrade. Similarly, if Mideast peace talks resume, the current leadership of Hamas would not be included.

In Bosnia, we implemented effective incentives and disincentives to encourage parties to reach a deal. The same approach will be necessary for future negotiations in the Middle East. For instance, the Palestinians could be motivated through the actual reconstruction of Gaza, infrastructure development in both Gaza and the West Bank, increased access within the West Bank, and the establishment of road links to Gaza.

On October 11, 2023, in Glasgow, Scotland, the Jewish community in the city came together in Buchanan Street for a solemn gathering. This vigil was held to remember and honor the individuals who lost their lives in Israel due to the actions of Hamas militants.

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We put considerable effort into engaging European, Arab, and other nations with a vested interest in stabilizing the Balkans. These countries would also play a crucial role in providing the necessary support for reconstruction, training, and integration. Similarly, when discussing Middle East peace, it will be equally important to identify significant roles for Israel's neighboring countries and the broader international community. This should include evaluating Saudi Arabia's willingness to recognize Israel. In fact, one of the main motivations behind Hamas's attack seems to have been to hinder normalization efforts.

The United States will undoubtedly need to mobilize a regional coalition in the Middle East, similar to the approach taken with the Bosnia Contact Group. This group ensured that the European Union and major European powers were aligned with the pace of American-led initiatives to bring an end to the Bosnian war.

A Mideast contact group could also include Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, in addition to the United States and Israel. Qatar, which has been helping in mediating the return of hostages and has provided assistance in other ways, could have a role if it acts positively.

It is uncertain if the Hamas attack will serve as a warning to the United States, which is currently dealing with internal tensions and striving to maintain its reliability as an international partner. Despite being preoccupied with growing domestic polarization, the United States is still considered the "indispensable nation" as emphasized by former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and others, especially evident in the case of Bosnia.

Concrete prospects for reinvigorating peace efforts in the Middle East hinge on various interconnected factors, including Israel's ability to dismantle Hamas infrastructure and simultaneously garner support from its regional allies and the United States.

On Monday, October 16, 2023, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip anxiously await their turn to cross into Egypt at the Rafah border crossing. As they seek shelter from the relentless Israeli bombardment following Hamas' brutal attack on October 7, neighboring countries Egypt and Jordan have firmly rejected the idea, citing multiple reasons for their refusal.

Egypt's reluctance to open its border to its Palestinian neighbors is rooted in several factors. The duration of the ongoing war in Gaza plays a crucial role in determining whether Israel's goal of dismantling Hamas can be achieved and how long it will take. As the conflict drags on, there is a growing concern that Israel might face a decline in regional and international backing, which is crucial for successfully isolating Hamas both economically, militarily, and politically.

Given the threat posed by Iran and groups like the Muslim Brotherhood to Egyptian and Gulf interests, it is crucial for these countries to recognize that a powerful Hamas is just as dangerous for them as it is for Israel. Therefore, they should actively contribute to the isolation of Hamas and play an active and constructive role in future peace negotiations.

In order to maintain international support and uphold moral principles, Israel must demonstrate its commitment to international humanitarian law, even in the face of an enemy that deliberately places military assets near civilian areas such as hospitals, schools, and mosques, and discourages civilians from seeking safer refuge. The urgency of providing aid to Gaza and taking every possible measure to protect civilian lives is undeniable.

The success of negotiations will also rely on the leadership that emerges in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition was never in favor of the two-state solution proposed in the Oslo Accords. Instead, they focused on constructing numerous new settlements in the West Bank, disregarding the interests of Palestinian moderates and hindering economic cooperation between Ramallah, Israel, and the wider region.

It is crucial to grant Israeli voices that believe a comprehensive peace settlement is the only viable option a greater role in shaping policy. Additionally, the question of who represents the Palestinians is equally significant. It is time to carefully consider tangible methods to support Palestinians who still seek peace and foster the emergence of new leaders.

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Join us on Twitter and Facebook to support the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people. Despite the myriad of problems faced by the Palestinian Authority, it is crucial to prioritize peace, security, and dignity for both Palestinians and Israelis as well as Americans. It is important for Israel, the United States, the European Union, and the Gulf states to work together in a coordinated manner to combat corruption, promote economic opportunities, and strengthen local Palestinian institutions for effective governance in both the West Bank and Gaza. Failure to do so could result in a political vacuum that could be leveraged by the next iteration of Hamas, with support from Iran.

A solid commitment from the US to engage in negotiations, along with concrete backing from regional actors to combat Hamas and establish a functional Palestinian Authority, combined with the rise of Israeli and Palestinian leaders who endorse a two-state resolution, offer optimism that this challenging period could lay the groundwork for a more positive future. If the key players adopt a strategic mindset and implement tactical actions, similar to what unfolded in Bosnia, there is a possibility for peace in the Middle East.