Top Premier League Pick: Bryan Mbeumo, 100/30, Set to Dominate Against Newcastle

How did we get on last weekend?

Despite delivering well-reasoned bets and predictions in abundance, the reality remains that the outcome was disappointing with a final score of -2 on the card. In the world of sports forecasting, results are what truly matter.

The treble on 11/1 was ruined by Everton's draw with Sheffield United, which was a disappointment. Additionally, Brighton's victory over Newcastle and West Ham's high foul count against Luton resulted in a frustrating loss for the bet.

Speaking of disappointments, Enzo Fernandez, who was predicted to be the first scorer against Nottingham Forest at odds of 11/1, had four shot attempts which only amounted to an expected goals tally of 0.32, but unfortunately, he couldn't find the back of the net. It seems that some things never change at Chelsea.

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P+L = -5

1pt treble on: Lewis Dunk to make one or more fouls, Crystal Palace double chance & Under 3.5 goals in Bournemouth vs Chelsea (9/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

However, if things start to click there, the goal involvements will start piling up for the boy Fernandez. It is advisable to consider him despite his currently high odds. Let's continue...

P+L = -5

1pt treble on: Lewis Dunk to make one or more fouls, Crystal Palace double chance & Under 3.5 goals in Bournemouth vs Chelsea (9/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

The most intriguing bet of the weekend centers around Brighton and England center-back Lewis Dunk being involved in one or more fouls, with a 1:1 odds. Rasmus Hojlund's aggressive and all-action style in attack for United is expected to create chaos. The striker seemed completely unfazed by the pressure during his debut at Arsenal, immediately engaging in intense one-on-one battles with the physically dominant Gabriel.

In his last 12 appearances for club and country, he has drawn 19 fouls. Dunk will be responsible for dealing with him. Over his last 25 matches, Dunk has only averaged 0.40 fouls per game. Therefore, according to the algorithm's output, Dunk is considered the least likely Brighton player to commit a foul. This is incorrect. They should be punished.

I'm also interested in adding Crystal Palace to avoid losing against potentially overrated Aston Villa. Additionally, I expect there to be a lack of goals in the Super Sunday match between Bournemouth and Chelsea.

2pts on Bryan Mbeumo to score vs Newcastle (100/30 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

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Bryan Mbeumo is a cracking bet to score vs Newcastle at 3/1, says Jones Knows

Newcastle have kept just two clean sheets in 22 Premier League games having previously kept six in a row. It's a defence that is lacking in cohesion and confidence.

How can we profit, then?

Support Bryan Mbeumo, one of Europe's most in-form strikers, to find the net at St James' Park.

Brentford has an unbeaten record in their last nine Premier League games without Ivan Toney since last season (W5 D4). During these matches, Bryan Mbeumo has scored nine goals. Comparatively, when both Toney and Mbeumo are on the field together, Mbeumo averages a goal every 826 minutes, but when he plays without Toney, he scores a goal every 90 minutes.

I was therefore surprised to see odds of 3/1 with Sky Bet available on him finding the net at anytime while the 22/1 with Sky Bet for him to score two or more also are worth consideration.