Top Gun 3: The Anticipated Sequel in the Wake of Cruise's Box Office Failure

The Rise and Fall of Top Gun: Maverick

Tom Cruise's latest blockbuster, Top Gun: Maverick, surprisingly underperformed at the box office, which has sparked anticipation for Top Gun 3. Audiences waited a long time for the sequel, and the 36-year gap between the original Top Gun and its first sequel was worth it. Top Gun: Maverick earned better reviews than its predecessor and grossed almost $1.5 billion at the box office. However, in 2023, another Tom Cruise sequel performed disappointingly at the box office, marking Cruise's first financial failure since 2017's The Mummy.

Tom Cruise on a train as Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

This unexpected franchise misstep showed the industry that Cruise needs the third Top Gun movie now more than ever, especially after the comparative failure of the 2023 sequel, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One. The consistent success of the Mission: Impossible movies meant that Top Gun: Maverick was a much bigger deal for supporting stars Miles Teller and Glen Powell than it was for Cruise. However, the failure of the 2023 sequel has shifted the tables, emphasizing the need for Top Gun 3 as Cruise's only guaranteed hit-maker.

Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

As the future of the Mission: Impossible series becomes harder to predict, it simultaneously becomes clearer that the Top Gun franchise could be Cruise's biggest performer in years to come. This would make sense for practical reasons and also financially, as Cruise is aging out of performing the death-defying stunts that defined his time in the Mission: Impossible series. While there is a good chance that Cruise will continue to perform his own stunts for years to come, Top Gun 3 could be better than further Mission: Impossible movies for Cruise, as the former sequel would allow his character to move into less active duty.

Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt looking down at the Entity key in Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

The Delayed Anticipation

Top Gun 3 will not happen for a while, although it is fair to say that the movie will not repeat the 36-year gap between the original and its first sequel. Cruise's busy career and the delayed release of Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part Two have contributed to the uncertainty of Top Gun 3's release date. The reportedly re-titled sequel will not arrive until May 23, 2025, which would theoretically allow viewers more time to miss Cruise's super spy Ethan Hunt. Cruise's decision will ultimately determine the fate of Top Gun 3, and audiences can expect a release no earlier than 2026.

Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt aiming a flute sniper rifle in Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

The entire franchise is defined by its sunny blockbuster tone, hence, it is almost guaranteed that Top Gun 3 will be released in summer. Cruise's Maverick won't be back on the screen for a few years, but the success of the last sequel proves that long waits don't always hurt major movies.

Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt in Driving a Motorcycle Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One superimposed in Front of Money

The Box Office Expectations

While Top Gun 3 might be able to outdo Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One's subpar box office performance, it would be pretty incredible if the movie managed to outdo Top Gun: Maverick's success. The 2022 sequel was a bigger hit than even the most optimistic forecasts suggested, and it would be almost impossible for the next sequel to outdo it. However, given the unexpected success of Top Gun: Maverick, the possibility of Top Gun 3 proving an even bigger box office success is still on the table.

Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt holding someone's hand in Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

The anticipated sequel, Top Gun 3, is set to be released no earlier than 2026 and is expected to be a summer blockbuster. Cruise's decision will ultimately determine the fate of the movie, and audiences can look forward to the continuation of the high-flying action franchise.

Tom Cruise as Captain Pete