The Untold Challenges Awaiting the GOP's Next Speaker, Avoiding the Traps of the Past

Replacing Kevin McCarthy did not solve any issues.

The next House speaker must address the harmful and counterproductive political factions within the Republican conference that led to McCarthy's short-lived tenure, despite his long-standing pursuit of the position.

Result: Two candidates, Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the GOP Majority Leader, and Jim Jordan of Ohio, the Judiciary Chairman, have already commenced their campaigns. Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma is currently assessing the level of support for a possible leadership bid, and others may follow suit. A new speaker, starting afresh, may be better positioned than McCarthy, who endured years of battles as minority leader, to unite the party. However, unless the eventual new speaker addresses the underlying causes of McCarthy's downfall, their tenure in the speakership may be as short-lived as his.

Additionally, the incoming speaker will face a significant test shortly after assuming office, facing the same challenging dilemmas that contributed to McCarthy's downfall. This will occur as the short-term funding bill, which was the previous speaker's final action, expires next month, potentially creating the risk of another government shutdown.

Kevin McCarthy and Nancy Mace

Getty Images

House devolves into angry round of retribution following McCarthy's ouster

The next individual entrusted with the poisoned gavel for the Californian will undoubtedly strive to exert influence over the workings of the Republican majority in order to avoid jeopardizing their own position as speaker. It would be imprudent for any candidate to replicate McCarthy's concession to hardliners, which ultimately enabled a single member of the House to bring forth a motion to remove him. Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, the primary instigator of McCarthy's troubles, continually threatened him with the possibility of a motion to vacate, highlighting why previous speakers, such as Democrat Nancy Pelosi, consistently resisted making such concessions.

Representative Garret Graves of Louisiana, a key ally of McCarthy, expressed his concerns to CNN's Jake Tapper. According to Graves, it would be harmful to the nation if the Speaker of the House was constantly at risk of being removed by their own party. He emphasized that the President and Vice President are not subjected to such a precarious situation and highlighted the importance of stability for the United States.

The force that repeatedly confounds GOP speakers

However, the downfall of McCarthy was not solely caused by his own mistakes, misguided compromises with extremists, or the chaotic state of the Republican Party during the Trump era. In this period, politicians frequently engage in flashy political theatrics to gain attention from right-wing TV hosts, rather than genuinely advocating for conservative agendas.

The upcoming speaker will need to devise a strategy for addressing those within the GOP who position themselves as the ultimate judges of conservatism and emphasize disruption and confrontation over effective governance. A significant number of these individuals hail from heavily Republican districts, which are frequently gerrymandered to avoid competitive general elections. Consequently, their sole political vulnerability may lie in facing more radical members of their party in a primary election.

Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the House, addressed the Inflation Reduction Act's anniversary at an event held in the East Room of the White House on Wednesday, August 16, 2023, in Washington.

Sources say that McCarthy is orchestrating a plan to remove Pelosi from her office, with the intention of taking it for himself. During his farewell news conference following his removal on Tuesday night, the outgoing speaker indirectly acknowledged the Republican Party's inability to demonstrate effective leadership to voters in preparation for the 2024 election. McCarthy stated that he aspires to be a Republican and conservative leader who can effectively govern, and emphasized the need to find a solution to achieve this goal.

A tiny majority that makes all the GOPs problems worse

However, this is not a new issue within the GOP. Former Speaker John Boehner, who came into power during the Tea Party revolution, faced similar challenges. The uncompromising nature of the far-right led to government shutdowns and fiscal cliffs that Boehner struggled to address. Eventually, the overwhelming pressure pushed him to the point of resignation. The following Republican speaker, former Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, was praised for his ability to unite different factions of the party. Yet, he too encountered difficulties when some of the more extreme members refused to compromise, undermining the fundamental nature of the US political system. Additionally, Ryan found himself grappling with the rise of "America First" cultural warfare and fiscal profligacy under Trump's leadership, which transformed the party into a platform for populist nationalism during the 2016 presidential campaign.

McCarthy's successor will be faced with an unchanging reality until the 2024 election: a small GOP majority that hinders the Republican conference's legislative potential and gives radical individuals considerable influence.

Due to the fact that GOP leaders can only afford to lose four votes and still pass a bill through party-line whip, certain crucial measures often require the support of Democrats in order to be passed. McCarthy had to employ this strategy to prevent a government shutdown and debt default this year. However, in the current political landscape, any Republican speaker who depends on Democratic votes is greatly weakened and likely unable to sustain their position for long.

The downfall of McCarthy was partly caused by the Republicans' failure to fulfill his prediction of a "red wave" landslide during the previous year's midterm elections. The composition of the House made it unattainable for McCarthy to secure majority support and retain the speakership, despite only eight Republicans voting alongside Democrats to remove him. Even if he had obtained a 10-seat majority, let alone the 30 or 40 seats he had anticipated last year, he would have managed to survive.

Rep. Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan.

Getty Images, Politico via AP

Scalise and Jordan announce their candidacy for House speaker following McCarthy's removal. The future speaker should not neglect the moderate faction of the party, which includes members who are angry about McCarthy's removal. McCarthy had significantly contributed to their campaigns through his impressive fundraising abilities. Moreover, over a dozen Republicans who won in swing districts in 2022 may face the risk of losing their re-election chances if the turmoil in the House prompts voter outrage.

Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican who claimed a New York district that Biden would have won by a 10-point margin in 2020 based on the revised boundaries, is advocating for Gaetz's expulsion from the Republican conference. The newly elected representative emphasized the necessity for voters to witness his party's commitment to addressing issues related to the southern border, fiscal restraint, and the challenges posed by Russia and China.

Lawler, during an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday, emphasized the public's anticipation for effective governance and called upon his party to swiftly unite in selecting a new speaker next week. He urged his fellow Republicans to display maturity and arrive at a consensus.

Ukraine aid on hold as House awaits new speaker

The Republican Party faces an insurmountable challenge in the form of Trump, as no Republican speaker or party figure has ever been successful in controlling him. Despite retaining popularity among GOP grassroots voters, Trump's uncontrollable nature poses a significant problem for Republican lawmakers who attempt to mirror his chaotic style of politics. Moreover, his controversial behavior, along with numerous criminal charges against him, runs the risk of alienating the very swing voters that Lawler and his colleagues are depending on for their re-election campaigns.

Another headache for

the new Republican speaker, whom the party hopes to have in place next week, will be the White House's request for approximately $20 billion in new funding to support Ukraine's fight against Russia's unprovoked invasion. This was a challenging task even under McCarthy, who voted in favor of providing arms and ammunition to Kyiv, despite expressing concerns about how the money was being utilized. As much of his party turned against the funding, McCarthy's stance became more rigid.

On September 16, 2023, a photograph captured soldiers from the 47th Brigade, specifically the tank department, of the Ukrainian army stationed at the Tokmak front in Zaporizhia's Oblast, Ukraine. The soldiers were seen alongside the Leopard 2 tank, as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, commonly known as the Russia-Ukraine war, persisted. The image was taken by Vincenzo Circosta and is credited to Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Biden seeks solutions to ensure continued aid to Ukraine as funding expiration approaches in a matter of weeks.

In an interview with CNN's Manu Raju on Wednesday, Jordan expressed his opposition to Ukraine aid, emphasizing that crime and the southern border are the primary concerns for Americans. While Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul stated that Jordan did not completely rule out Ukraine aid during a meeting with the Texas delegation, he insisted that border security should be included in any negotiations. Scalise, on the other hand, has largely shown support for providing aid. However, any potential speaker candidate may face pressure from numerous Republicans who oppose sending additional funds. In the most recent vote on Ukraine aid in late September, which involved a relatively small sum of $300 million, 117 Republicans, accounting for more than half of the party's conference, voted against it.

From the speakers chair, the world can appear vastly different, carrying with it greater responsibilities as second in line to the presidency compared to the political battlegrounds of the House. However, in order for a Republican speaker to successfully provide assistance to Ukraine, they will need the support of the Democrats. This is why McCarthy chose not to include a $6 billion initial payment towards Biden's broader aid request in the recent legislation that prevented a government shutdown. He stated that these funds would only be available as part of a larger package that also addresses enhanced security measures for the southern border.

Nevertheless, in order to find innovative solutions within this framework, it is essential for the various factions within the Republican Party to be open to compromise and loosen their strict positions for the greater benefit. Unfortunately, the lack of such flexibility has been a fatal weakness among GOP speakers for many years.