The Resurgence of the No 9 and Revolutionary Tactical Shifts Shaping the Premier League's Future

The Future of Football series explores the past and present state of tactics in the Premier League, and presents bold predictions for the future, backed by data and projections from leading experts.

Is the game becoming more attack-focused?

Arsenal's reputation as a team that consistently clinches narrow 1-0 victories aligns well with their early years. Last season, the Gunners had an average score of 2.32 goals for and 1.13 goals against in the Premier League.

Over the past 15 years, the number of goals scored in the Premier League has steadily increased. In the 2006/07 season, the average number of goals per game hit a low point of 2.45, but last season it reached an all-time high of 2.85.

Open Privacy Settings

In recent years, the ratio of runaway teams has been steadily increasing. For instance, during the previous season, Manchester City scored 94 goals, while Arsenal scored 88 goals, which is approximately three times more than the league-low 31 goals scored by Wolves.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Why?

In top-tier strategies, the concept of risk and reward is frequently associated with teams that employ high defensive lines. Liverpool was famously known for this approach, as their average passing sequences in 2019/20 began at a distance of 45.22m from their own goal-line. This line was pushed even higher in 2021/22, strategically forcing opponents into restricted areas and relying on the counter-press and defensive line to neutralize counter-attacks.

The following chart illustrates the consistent increase in league average starting distance across various seasons, indicating a trend that has been observed since the recording of this metric commenced. As a result, teams are now more inclined to believe that the benefits surpass any potential drawbacks, ultimately leading to a higher number of goals being scored.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Video-assisted referees (VAR) have contributed to this trend by providing teams with protection against offside errors. This protection is granted if teams successfully maintain their defensive line or win one-on-one foot races. A notable example of this is Liverpool, who caught opposing teams offside a league-leading 142 times during their title-winning campaign. This number was 43 times higher than any other team.

However, in general, teams seem to be increasingly inclined towards the belief that the rewards of using attacking systems outweigh the associated risks. Additionally, players have become more effective and precise in front of goal. These improvements have been further facilitated by other prevailing trends, which we will discuss in detail.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

The following chart demonstrates that in the previous season, the majority of teams that finished in the top half of the standings had a lower percentage of shots taken from outside the penalty box. This highlights the trend of successful teams showing more caution when it comes to shooting from long distances.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Why?

So, firing closer to goal is more than four times as effective.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Crossing, once a prominent attacking approach in the game, is now rapidly declining. Utilizing the flanks and delivering crosses has been a long-standing strategy. However, recent data shows a significant decrease in open-play crosses per game. In the 2003/04 season, matches witnessed an average of 42 crosses per game, whereas last season, that number dropped by 43 percent to an average of 24 crosses.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

In games, top teams generally register more crosses due to their higher possession share. However, when considering the average possession percentage along with the number of crosses, these top teams significantly drop in the rankings.

Image:

Trent Alexander-Arnold's changing heatmap for Liverpool in the 2022/23 Premier League season

Liverpool's tactic of delivering crosses from the wings through their full-backs has brought them significant triumphs. However, as the previous season approached its conclusion, there was a noticeable shift in their approach. Trent Alexander-Arnold, for instance, transitioned into a hybrid midfield position, demonstrating a growing inclination towards operating in central zones.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Is the league becoming faster?

Is the Premier League really becoming faster? That's what many people say when talking about new signings adapting to its pace. But is it true?

Starting from the 2020/21 season, the number of sprints per game has steadily increased. It climbed from 127 sprints in 2020/21 to 129 in 2021/22, and then significantly rose to 134 sprints in the most recent season.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

During Jurgen Klopp's early tenure at Liverpool, injecting speed into the team's play was a significant transformation. However, as the team faced recurring injury problems following the festive schedules, they gradually eased off. Similarly, Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag has emphasized the importance of quick starts for his players, aligning with his work-rate-centered philosophy. This approach likely played a crucial role in Cristiano Ronaldo losing his regular starting position and eventually departing from the club.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Privacy Options Menu

According to a recent academic study conducted in May 2020, the FIFA World Cup finals witnessed a significant increase in the number of passes per minute. Between the years 1966 and 2014, this number rose by approximately 35 percent, going from 11 to 15 passes. Additionally, the speed of the game also saw a noticeable surge of 15 percent, progressing from 8.0 meters per second to 9.2 meters per second.

According to the trajectory, the number of passes per minute is projected to exceed 16, and the game speed could further increase by around seven percent to approximately 9.8 m/s by 2030.

The study also found that the distance covered at high intensity in the Premier League increased by 20 percent from 2006/2007 to 2012/2013. Furthermore, there was a 50 percent rise in high-intensity actions and an eight percent increase in total sprint distance during the same period.

However, that did not stop Arsenal ranking second in this metric last season, while Tottenham ranked third - driven largely by Antonio Conte's emphasis on work-rate.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Health and fitness now play a vital role in clubs and for modern footballers. Teams often field younger starting lineups and players are asked to fulfill multiple positions. Full-backs are required to participate in attacking plays, forwards must contribute defensively, and goalkeepers are often utilized as sweepers.

The advancements in sports science and the desire to optimize performance on the field are pushing physical abilities to their boundaries. While there are limitations in achieving further improvements, there currently seems to be potential for growth as professional footballers are now required to excel not only as skilled players but also as top-tier athletes.

Is tackling a dying art?

Tackling, an art that has been diminishing for almost twenty years, is another feature of the game that is on the decline.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka, the full-back for Manchester United, has faced criticism in the past regarding his attacking skills. However, there are few who question his talent for impeccably timing a well-executed tackle.

Joao Palhinha, the Fulham midfielder, gained immense praise for his exceptional play-breaking skills, as he topped the league with 148 tackles last season. The demand for Moises Caicedo is high, and he ranks second on the list, while Casemiro holds the fourth position and Bruno Guimaraes ranks ninth. Notably, all three players represent top-six clubs.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

The ongoing discussion regarding the comparison between Alexander-Arnold's offensive and defensive skills, as well as the emergence of center-backs like John Stones transitioning into midfield roles, and the emphasis on defenders who can play with the ball, are all contributing factors.

Moreover, there seems to be a tactical shift towards proactive prevention in midfield, aiming to neutralize threats without resorting to tackles or fouls. This can be achieved through smart positioning, timely interceptions, or swiftly regaining possession of loose balls.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Are teams pressing more?

Pressing is on the rise, particularly the high press.

From the 2003/04 season to the most recent one, there has been a significant increase in reclaiming possession in the final third. The average has risen from 4.3 per game to 9.7, indicating a notable 125 percent increase.

This particular metric measures instances when a player successfully regains control of the ball in the final third. This occurs either when neither team has possession or when the ball is played directly to the player by an opponent, allowing them to regain possession for their own team. This achievement is often the result of a well-coordinated team press.

When it comes to urgency, Klopp's high-intensity approach centered on 'gegenpressing' was possibly the most influential in the contemporary English football era. However, Guardiola also requires his team to perform at similar levels.

Last season, both teams achieved top rankings in this metric, with title-chasing Arsenal securing the third spot. Remarkably, all teams positioned in the top half of the final league table, except for Fulham and Tottenham, also excelled in reclaiming possession in the final third of the field. Naturally, these teams engage in more offensive play in the attacking thirds, highlighting the growing significance of high pressing tactics in recent tactical advancements.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

The metric 'high turnovers' reflects the very same pattern: teams are snatching possession higher up the pitch more frequently.

Open Privacy Options

Why?

This trend coincides with teams constantly pushing forward on the field, aiming to regain possession and apply intense pressure in both the midfield and attacking areas. The objective is to thwart any potential counterattacks and confine opponents within their own defensive zones.

Initiating attacks in proximity to the opponent's goal is undeniably advantageous compared to starting from deeper positions on the field. Additionally, opponents frequently find themselves improperly positioned or vulnerable to mistakes during turnovers or forced errors.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Tiki-taka and the long ball

It goes without saying that fewer clubs play long balls in the modern era, but what is the scale of that change?

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

The following chart illustrates the tendency of the top teams to consistently have the lowest rates of playing long balls. On the contrary, Leicester, who were eventually relegated, may have relied excessively on the short passing game in their attempt to stay in the top flight. As a result, Jamie Vardy, who prefers receiving the ball at his feet, often found himself spending significant time on the substitute bench in favor of other forwards.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Access Privacy Settings

Elite teams continue to employ the long passing strategy to add diversity to their gameplay. Liverpool, in particular, stands out as they frequently utilize Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, and Virgil Van Dijk to distribute long passes upfield.

Passing accuracy in the Premier League has increased over the past 13 years as teams have reduced their reliance on long passes. In 2009/10, the average passing accuracy was 73.1%, but it has since risen to 81.3%. The chart below illustrates this trend.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Last season, the passing accuracy rankings of Premier League teams were almost the opposite of the rankings for the proportion of long passes. Manchester City stood out with a league-high average accuracy of 89.2 percent, while Forest, known for their prevalent use of long balls, ranked at the bottom with an accuracy of 72.3 percent.

Brentford mostly relied on playing long balls to Ivan Toney throughout last season. They capitalized on David Raya's passing skills and Toney's ability to handle and keep possession. However, despite this strategy, Brentford's passing accuracy ranked 19th among all teams. Interestingly, the teams towards the bottom of these rankings deviate from the popular short-passing game approach. Instead, they seek to exploit the aforementioned trends by bypassing midfield contests, aiming to launch counter-attacks.

To fully utilize their eleventh player, almost all top clubs now consider the goalkeeper's ability to play out from the back as a mandatory attribute.

The new breed of goalkeepers, as demonstrated by City reserve goalkeeper Stefan Ortega and Brighton's Jason Steele, can be identified by their impressive statistics from last season. Both Ortega and Steele have excelled in terms of pass length, recording the shortest average distances, and have also achieved the highest pass completion rates.

Image:

Jason Steele's passing for Brighton

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

The chart provided illustrates the consistent trend among goalkeepers in retaining possession, as indicated by their pass completion rate. Between 2009/04 and 2009/10, the average pass completion rate stood at 43%, before experiencing a significant surge and reaching a remarkable 67% during the last season, marking the highest ratio ever recorded.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

The 2010 Spain team, which won the World Cup, clearly demonstrated the advantages of playing tiki-taka. However, it can be argued that Guardiola, especially, played a significant role in bringing about a significant shift in the Premier League. Shortly after his appointment at City, the frequency of long passes decreased considerably.

Spain emerged victorious in the 2010 World Cup, employing a tiki-taka playing style.

The remarkable achievements of Manchester City have inspired other elite teams to emulate their strategies, whereas certain teams, such as Forest, have chosen to defy convention and achieve considerable success. In fact, Forest skillfully adjusted their tactics throughout the season, strategically luring opponents towards them and capitalizing on counterattacking opportunities, primarily through the exceptional abilities of Morgan Gibbs-White, Brennan Jonson, and Danilo.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

As a result, each tactical innovation gives rise to a corresponding counter-tactic, ensuring that the evolution is constantly progressing.

In fact, there are teams that attempt to innovate using similar strategies. Brighton, for example, have adopted the playing style typically associated with the 'Big Six' clubs over the past few seasons. In fact, they even secured a top-six finish in the Premier League last season, which was a significant milestone in their history.

The driving force behind the increased emphasis on short passing and accuracy is the same as the previously mentioned trends: the goal of enhancing efficiency, optimizing positioning and utility, maintaining possession, and expanding options both with and without the ball. Additionally, it involves neutralizing threats from the opposition through calculated risk and reward.

In relation to goalkeepers who excel in ball-playing, Guardiola once stated, "The less possession the opponent has, the lower their chances of scoring." This statement potentially sheds light on why certain teams seem to prioritize their 'keeper's distribution abilities over their ability to make saves.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Which positions are in demand?

Privacy Options: Unveiling a Fresh Perspective

Forwards have consistently dominated the spotlight and compelled clubs to liberally spend over the years. A quick look at the record-breaking transfer fees emphasizes the enduring value placed on attackers throughout the history of football.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Image:

In January, Chelsea broke the league record by investing £106.8m in Enzo Fernandez. Additionally, the division's most costly players to date are defensive midfielders: Enzo Fernandez (£106.8m) and Declan Rice (£105m), both of whom secured their deals within the last year.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Settings

Midfield destroyers like N'Golo Kante have significantly increased their prominence in the football world. Kante, a France international, gained widespread recognition for his crucial role in Leicester's remarkable title victory in the 2015/16 season before transferring to Chelsea.

In recent years, inverted wingers have dominated the forward position, reaching their peak in the 2021/22 season with Mohamed Salah and Heung-Min Son sharing the Golden Boot. They have thrived when paired with deep-lying central strikers.

The need for ball-playing defenders and goalkeepers has increased, as well as the demand for left-footed players who can maximize resources on the field. Manchester City, for example, has transitioned from using a false nine to relying on a traditional number nine like Erling Haaland, whose role is to overpower and exploit this new breed of defenders. Other top teams are also searching for players who can excel in similar ways.

The 22-year-old made a stylish delivery with 36 goals in the league, shattering the record of 34 previously held by Alan Shearer and Andrew Cole almost three decades ago.

Out of the top 10 highest goalscorers in the Premier League during the 2021/22 season, established strikers collectively accumulated only 50 goals. However, this number skyrocketed to 133 in the previous season, not even accounting for Marcus Rashford, who frequently played as a forward.

The No 9 is back. We could be going full circle.

Why?

In general, 'fluidity' encapsulates these recent trends, as clubs are becoming more willing to spend more money on players who can meet changing tactical demands. This applies to players in various positions, whether they are playing in attacking roles, contributing to teamwork in the midfield, or defending and preventing threats at the back.

As teams discover effective tactical strategies, other teams will follow suit by imitating, innovating, and reacting. This constant evolution ensures that the tactical landscape will continue to change as long as there are transformations in the game.

The 4-4-2 formation was utilized a total of 498 times throughout the division during the 2006/07 season - no other system has come close to achieving such dominance in a single campaign since then.

During the previous season, a total of 13 teams chose to start with a 4-4-2 formation on 62 occasions in the Premier League. Interestingly, only the 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, and 3-4-2-1 formations were used more frequently during that time.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

So is it making a comeback? Technically, no - quite the opposite. But, it comes with a caveat.

This season has witnessed a historic decline for the 4-4-2 formation compared to previous records. This can be attributed partly to Sean Dyche's Burnley team, who have dropped down to the Championship, and Southampton transitioning to different playing systems.

At the same time, managers have exhibited a growing tendency to explore varied tactical approaches. Although the 4-2-3-1 formation gained significant popularity starting from the 2009/10 season, and the 4-3-3 formation gained traction in the subsequent season.

Explore Privacy Options

The fascinating aspect surrounding the resurgence of the 4-4-2 formation lies in the way top-tier teams have started reintegrating it into their gameplay. Aston Villa have employed it on 15 occasions, Brighton on three occasions, while Liverpool, Spurs, and even Manchester City have utilized it multiple times.

Finally, spare a thought for the 4-5-1 formation, which was used 151 times in 2010/11: it was deployed merely seven times last term.

Why?

Manchester City and Liverpool were formerly known for employing a 4-3-3 formation, but both teams deviated from this system last season. This departure may indicate a wider trend within the league, as the usage of this formation has now reached its highest point. Guardiola utilized a 4-3-3 formation in 14 Premier League matches last season, a decrease from the 28 times it was used in the previous campaign. Klopp, on the other hand, remained more consistent, employing the 4-3-3 formation in 31 league matches. Notably, he continued to use this formation in every single league match during the 2021/22 season.

Last season, traditional formations seemed inadequate in accurately representing how a team would perform both offensively and defensively during a match. The commonly used labels such as 4-3-3, 4-4-2, and 4-2-3-1 were no longer sufficient to capture the intricate positional play that coaches required from their players.

Early on in the season, Oleksandr Zinchenko's ability to transition from left-back to midfield provided Arsenal with a significant numerical advantage in the middle of the field. This played a pivotal role in their outstanding performance in the first half of the season.

Later, Rico Lewis displayed remarkable game intelligence at a young age by assuming a similar role as a right-back for Man City. He often found himself playing more centrally, forming a box midfield partnership with Rodri. Towards the end of the season, John Stones also adopted this approach, either starting as a right-back or transitioning seamlessly from center-back.

This strategy gained traction, as Trent Alexander-Arnold replicated the same tactic for Liverpool and Pascal Gross showcased his midfield skills from the right-back position for Brighton. The ultimate goal was to increase the number of players in midfield and create advantageous situations in key areas, allowing for more space. Alexander-Arnold adopted this approach to highlight his exceptional ball-playing abilities and protect against defensive vulnerabilities in one-on-one situations.

Teams displayed remarkable adaptability, not only in their ball control but also in their defensive strategies. While it is not uncommon for teams to adopt different formations when defending versus attacking, this season witnessed a clear and evident shift in approach. The traditional 4-4-2 formation experienced a renaissance as teams opted to deploy multiple defensive lines against their opponents, making it exceedingly challenging to penetrate their defense.

So what about the future?

However, the intricate nature of these tactics makes it difficult for journalists and fans to accurately assess a team's formation using a simple numerical lineup. Nevertheless, these sophisticated strategies have introduced an enthralling component to the tactical battles witnessed in the current Premier League season.

Nothing remains stagnant as tactics continuously progress. Incorporating goalkeepers proficient in ball distribution and positioning players based on their dominant foot in advantageous areas all contribute to creating passing options and shooting opportunities - and data analysis plays a pivotal role in this process.

The predictive power of data enables analysts to assess the probability of successfully passing to any teammate at any specific moment, as well as evaluate the offensive threat posed by each of those options. This newfound data allows for the quantification of a player's decision-making skills by not only measuring their actions, but also considering alternative possibilities. Additionally, it unveils the distribution of player roles throughout a game.

Given the availability and scalability of this level of analysis, it seems inevitable that predictive data will soon become integral during games and for pre-match and post-match analysis. Consequently, player performances will be assessed in relation to these predictive models.

Meanwhile, management teams are increasingly examining the impact of various player combinations on team chemistry, both in general and against specific opponents.

Real Analytics, among other companies, employs artificial intelligence to forecast player performance at clubs by analyzing their profiles and potential teammates. This approach adds a new layer to the traditional method of data-mining raw statistics, which can be influenced by league and playing style variations.

Is there a sustainable pinnacle of tactical excellence? The development and on-the-spot modifications made by a team can completely change the dynamics and disrupt an opponent's predetermined strategies.

When teams have the ability to quickly and flawlessly adapt, pure skill is often what gives them the competitive advantage. However, with the emergence of predictive analysis, teams are now seeking to achieve tactical perfection in real time.