The Future of Football: Exploring the Spectacular Rise in Stadium Sizes

What lies ahead for stadiums and spectators? Have attendance numbers reached their peak? Do fans contribute to on-field success?

In the Future of Football series, we delve into the history and current state before offering future forecasts, relying on data and projections provided by renowned experts.

Top-flight attendances at all-time highs

The 2019/20 football season saw a historic milestone in England, as the average attendance for top-flight matches surpassed 40,000 for the first time ever.

This achievement did not come as a gradual increase over the years. In fact, the previous record of 38,793, set in the 1948/49 season when all-seater stadiums were not yet implemented, stood unbroken for a remarkable 71 years. However, during the 1980s, attendance figures had plummeted, reaching around 20,000, exactly half of the previous record.

However, it should be noted that clubs now include all season ticket holders in their attendance numbers, regardless of whether they actually attend the match. Nonetheless, the overall trend towards larger and fuller stadiums remains evident.

The following graphic illustrates the growth and fluctuations in attendances over the last 135 years. It also emphasizes that attendances tend to increase significantly in the aftermath of national and global crises, particularly the two World Wars. Reflecting this pattern, there has been a noticeable surge in attendance in recent times, with just two seasons passing since the majority of matches in the 2020/21 season were held without spectators due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

The attendance for top-flight women's games experienced significant growth with a staggering 170 percent increase from 1,931 in the 2021/22 season to 5,222 in the previous season. This growth is particularly noteworthy as attendance had remained stagnant at around 1,000 for five years until the 2019/20 season.

The spike coincides with wider coverage of the league, while the profile of women's football elevated considerably last year after England won the Euro 2022 tournament on home soil.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Packed to the rafters

On the other hand, the Women's World Cup is poised to make history as the most highly attended standalone women's sporting event ever. This summer's tournament has already sold over one million tickets.

In the realm of men's soccer, the following table highlights the unparalleled dominance of Manchester United in domestic all-time records. They have secured the highest attendance in 56 out of the 124 seasons, with Everton following closely behind at 14, and Arsenal at 12. Chelsea and Newcastle share the distinction with 10 top attendance records apiece.

Image:

Old Trafford, home to Manchester United, had an average attendance of 73,671 last season. This figure has remained consistent for the past 16 years since the stadium underwent expansion in 2006, adding 8,000 seats.

In the 2011/12 season, Borussia Dortmund, a German Bundesliga club, surpassed Barcelona's Nou Camp in terms of average attendance and has maintained the highest capacity crowds in Europe since then, with an average of 81,228 spectators.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Will home advantage matter in the future?

Does home support lead to on-field success?

Although clubs benefit financially from ticket sales, and fans are increasingly eager to attend matches, the question remains: Does having strong home support directly correlate with a team's success?

While the influence of the '12th man' in men's football has traditionally been associated with motivating teams to victory, recent data suggests that this impact is diminishing.

In 1894/95, the win ratio for teams playing at home was 65 percent. However, over the last 128 years, this figure has steadily declined and reached only 41 percent in 2015/16.

The existence of home advantage is still apparent when fans are present in the stands. In the 2020/21 campaign, this fact was emphasized as home teams playing in empty stadiums achieved the lowest win rate ever recorded in the history of the game, at only 38 percent. For the first time, teams playing away from home won more games than their hosts. The declining trend overall implies that home advantage may not persist in the future.

Datawrapper

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

What does the future look like - can stadiums meet demand?

So, we know attendances are rising, but at what point will they top out?

The largest stadium in the world is currently the Narendra Modi Stadium in India, which can accommodate up to 132,000 cricket fans. In comparison, the Rungrado 1st of May Stadium in North Korea was initially constructed to hold 150,000 spectators, but modifications have since reduced its capacity to approximately 114,000.

Image:

The Narendra Modi Stadium in India is the largest stadium in the world and holds 132,000

Barcelona's Nou Camp stands as Europe's largest football stadium, accommodating an impressive 99,354 spectators. Meanwhile, Wembley, heralded as England's football haven, proudly secures its position among the top 20 largest stadiums globally with an extensive capacity of 90,000.

Image:

Barcelona's Nou Camp has a capacity of 99,354

But, will capacity ever reach its limit in the future? Despite the numerous technological and engineering innovations, a conventional stadium seems to have a threshold - beyond which the logistics would become impractical or the overall experience would be too far removed from the actual action.

Image:

A concept of the world's first 1m-capacity stadium

American artist Paul Pfeiffer envisioned the creation of the world's first one-million capacity stadium, drawing inspiration from Sydney's Olympic Stadium, which housed 110,000 attendees during the 2000 Olympics. Building such a stadium would require exceptional engineering prowess and result in an unparalleled atmosphere. However, this concept also presents several logistical challenges, including ensuring the safe entry and exit of such a vast number of people, as well as providing essential services, transportation options, and parking facilities.

According to Dale Jennins, Senior Principal at Populous - the architects and lead designers of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the capacity is determined by the viewing distance of fans to the action on the pitch. The internationally recommended standard is that no seat should be located outside of a 190m arc from one corner of the pitch to the farthest seat in the opposite corner.

The recommended viewing distance for each sport varies based on the size of the ball and the speed of the game. For instance, tennis would require a shorter viewing distance due to the smaller and faster-moving ball.

By using the football standard as a reference, it is feasible to construct a stadium that can accommodate approximately 90,000 seats, ensuring that each seat is within the 190m arc.

Increasing the capacity within the 190m arc by steepening the tiers is theoretically possible; however, this may result in an unconventional-shaped bowl and building form. It is important to note that safety regulations vary from country to country, with the maximum rake of a stand in the UK limited to 35 degrees, while it may be steeper in other countries like Italy.

Virtual reality to take a front-row seat?

In addition to comfort, there are several other factors to take into account, as mentioned by Jennins. Traditionally, the terracing in UK stadiums had a tread depth of approximately 660mm. However, this has gradually been increased over time to provide more space for spectators. By increasing the tread depth, the distance between rows of seats is also increased, pushing them further away from the playing field. As a result, the number of seats within the 190m arc is reduced.

While the realization of such projects may be possible in the future, it appears that virtual reality will play a prominent role in the coming years. Current technology allows for the creation of virtual crowds that can provide an unlimited capacity and recreate the atmosphere of live events.

The global popularity of the Premier League has witnessed remarkable growth over the years. From a modest figure of nearly 18 million worldwide searches in January 2004, the numbers have skyrocketed to an unprecedented 587 million in July 2023, often fluctuating during non-season periods.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Of course, it is important to acknowledge the substantial increase in internet usage during that period while sifting through the results. Additionally, some divisions abroad also feature the 'Premier League'. Nevertheless, irrespective of the underlying factors, English Premier League clubs are experiencing an escalating level of interaction and global visibility.

Due to your consent preferences, you’re not able to view this.

Open Privacy Options

Finance expert Kieran Maguire expressed that there is anticipation for the emergence of the metaverse, which allows for a simulated matchday experience using augmented and virtual reality in people's homes.

Maguire highlights that Manchester United has a significant global following of 1.1 billion individuals. In order to expand their reach beyond the limited capacity of Old Trafford, he proposes the idea of physically hosting a match at the stadium while simultaneously broadcasting it in a 3D format to cities like New York, Lagos, Melbourne, and Beijing, allowing for an additional 40 or 50,000 fans to attend virtually.

Could we potentially see a future where individuals are willing to pay around $30 or $40 to be present in a stadium, or $10 to have a matchday experience from the comfort of their own homes? The concept of virtual and augmented reality and its impact on such experiences will be explored extensively in the upcoming segment of this series.