The No9 Renaissance: Exploring Tactical Shifts Reshaping the Premier League's Future

What does the future of tactics in the Premier League entail?

As an integral part of our Future of Football series, we analyze the historical and current aspects before making daring forecasts for the future. These predictions are formulated by incorporating data and projections provided by top experts in the field.

Is the game becoming more attack-focused?

In the past, Arsenal was known for their ability to secure 1-0 victories, which accurately reflects their early era. Last season in the Premier League, the Gunners had an average score of 2.32 goals for and 1.13 goals against.

Over the years, Premier League goals have been on an overall upward trend, particularly after reaching a low point about 15 years ago. The average number of goals per game has risen from as low as 2.45 in the 2006/07 season to a record high of 2.85 in the most recent season.

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Why?

Liverpool's reputation for risk and reward in their top-flight tactics was evident in their average passing sequences of 45.22m from their own goal-line in the 2019/20 season. In the 2021/22 season, they pushed this line even higher, forcing opponents into tighter spaces and relying on the counter-press and defensive line to neutralize counter threats.

Liverpool's high line was repeatedly exploited by Aston Villa, resulting in a 7-2 defeat on October 4, 2020. Manchester City, despite recording higher seasonal starting distances, have generally faced fewer risks due to their slower style of play compared to Liverpool's more aggressive approach.

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Video-assisted referees (VAR) have contributed to this trend, offering protection to teams against offside errors when they successfully maintain the defensive line or win one-on-one foot races. A notable example is Liverpool, who caught opposing teams offside a league-leading 142 times during their title-winning campaign, surpassing any other team by a margin of 43 instances.

However, in general, teams seem to be inclined towards the belief that the benefits of adopting attacking systems outweigh the associated risks. Another contributing factor to this shift is the increased efficiency of players in front of the goal, which can be attributed to other prevailing trends that we will discuss further.

Shooting from long distance on the decline

During the 2009/10 season, there was a notable increase in the number of goals scored. This coincided with the start of a downward trend in the number of shots attempted from outside the opponent's penalty area. In matches back then, an average of 12.8 shots were taken per game. However, in the most recent season, this figure had significantly dropped to just 8.4 shots per game, representing a decline of 34 percent.

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Why?

What is causing this trend? The answer lies in the term "long shot". Shots taken from a distance are much less likely to result in a goal compared to shots taken from inside the penalty box. Teams are now focusing on maintaining possession and recycling the ball in order to create better scoring opportunities closer to the goal, instead of relying on shots from long distances.

Since the 2010/11 season, only approximately 3.5 percent of attempts from outside the penalty box have resulted in a goal being scored, whereas over 15 percent of shots taken from inside the box, including penalties, have found the back of the net.

So, firing closer to goal is more than four times as effective.

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The use of flanks and crossing the ball has long been a prominent and effective attacking strategy in football. However, this approach is now rapidly declining. In the 2003/04 season, matches saw an average of 42 open-play crosses per game. Last season, this average drastically dropped to 24, representing a significant 43% decrease.

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Interestingly, numerous high-ranking clubs were the most active in delivering crosses during the previous season. Notably, Fulham took the lead by attempting an impressive 582 open-play crosses, aiming to provide ammunition for their aerial threat Aleksandar Mitrovic. West Ham, known for their strength in this aspect, secured the second position in that ranking.

However, elite teams generally tend to record a higher number of crosses - mainly because they enjoy a significantly larger portion of possession during matches. Yet, when taking into account the average possession percentage along with the quantity of crosses, those top-ranked teams dramatically fall in the standings.

Liverpool have found great success by delivering balls into the penalty area from the flanks utilizing their full-backs. However, this strategy started to evolve towards the conclusion of the previous season when Trent Alexander-Arnold started to transition into a hybrid midfield position, frequently venturing into central zones.

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The decline seems to be related to the increasing emphasis on accuracy and efficiency in order to avoid losing possession. Teams are now playing more directly through central areas, using inverted wingers, and making more ground-level cut-backs.

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The number of sprints per game has been steadily increasing since the 2020/21 season when the tracking metrics were changed. It rose from 127 sprints in 2020/21 to 129 in 2021/22, and further jumped to 134 sprints last season.

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Most of the top clubs typically rank in the top half of these rankings, except for Manchester City, who play a distinct style of possession-based build-up play.

Newcastle, under Eddie Howe's leadership, underwent a significant change in their physical performance, topping the league with 5,667 sprints last season. Leeds, managed by Marcelo Bielsa, went beyond their competitors in terms of physical output, but dropped to second place under multiple coaches in the previous season.

During Jurgen Klopp's early tenure at Liverpool, injecting speed into the team's play was a significant transformation. However, this aggressive approach subsided due to frequent injury setbacks experienced during festive schedules. Similarly, Manchester United's manager Erik ten Hag emphasizes the importance of a high work-rate philosophy, which ultimately resulted in Cristiano Ronaldo losing his regular starting position and eventually departing from the club.

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According to a recent academic study conducted in May 2020, it was found that there has been a significant increase in the number of passes per minute during FIFA World Cup finals. Specifically, between 1966 and 2014, there was a notable rise of approximately 35 percent, resulting in an increase from 11 to 15 passes per minute. Additionally, the study also revealed a 15 percent increase in game speed, climbing from 8.0 m/s to 9.2 m/s.

By 2030, the number of passes per minute could potentially exceed 16, and there is a possibility of the game speed increasing by approximately seven percent to around 9.8 m/s, based on the given trajectory.

Additionally, the study unveiled a 20 percent increase in distance covered at high intensity in the Premier League between 2006/2007 and 2012/2013. It was also found that high-intensity actions escalated by 50 percent, while total sprint distance rose by eight percent.

According to the data, the distance covered at high intensity may increase by 40% from the 2012/13 season to 2030.

In terms of logic, elite teams that possess the ball more frequently and employ a high defensive line would typically have to cover less distance. This is due to the fact that they operate in a more confined portion of the field and do not have to constantly pursue the ball. However, they would still need to sprint back when the possession changes hands.

However, that did not stop Arsenal ranking second in this metric last season, while Tottenham ranked third - driven largely by Antonio Conte's emphasis on work-rate.

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Health and fitness has become an essential aspect in the realm of clubs and for present-day football players. Nowadays, teams often field younger starting line-ups and players are constantly required to excel in multiple positions. Defenders are now anticipated to actively participate in attacking plays, forwards are expected to contribute to defensive duties, and goalkeepers are frequently utilized in a sweeper role.

The advancement of sports science and the goal of optimizing performance on the field are pushing physical efforts to their extremes. Although there are limits to improvement, there seems to be potential for further growth, as top footballers are now required to excel as both athletes and competitors.

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Is tackling a dying art?

The decline of tackling is another notable trend observed in the game, gradually fading away over the course of almost twenty years.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka, a full-back for Manchester United, has often faced scrutiny regarding his offensive prowess; however, his ability to impeccably time a tackle is widely recognized and rarely disputed.

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Why?

Lawmakers have clamped down on the sliding tackle and tackles, generally, which has contributed to the decline in committed challenges.

The ongoing discussion surrounding the comparison of Alexander-Arnold's attacking and defensive skills, as well as the emergence of center-backs like John Stones in hybrid midfield positions and the emphasis on ball-playing defenders, also contribute to this debate.

Tactically, there is also a noticeable trend towards proactive prevention in the midfield, aimed at neutralizing threats without resorting to tackling - achieved either through strategic positioning, interceptions, or recovering loose balls.

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Between the seasons of 2003/04 and the most recent one, there was a significant increase in reclaiming possession in the final third. The average number of times this occurred per game rose from 4.3 to 9.7, representing a substantial 125% increase.

This particular metric refers to the scenario where a player retrieves the ball in the final third of the field. It occurs when neither team has possession or when the ball is directly played to the player by an opponent, resulting in the player successfully regaining possession for their team. Typically, this is accomplished through a well-coordinated team press.

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Klopp's high-intensity style, known as 'gegenpressing,' has been widely regarded as the most influential in the modern era of English football. However, Guardiola also expects his team to meet similar levels of intensity.

Last season, both teams achieved high rankings in this metric, with title contenders Arsenal coming in third. Interestingly, all the teams in the top half of the final league table, except for Fulham and Tottenham, also ranked in the top half for reclaiming possession in the final third. Naturally, these teams tend to dominate play in the attacking areas, but the significance of a strong high press has grown in the modern development of tactical strategies.

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The metric 'high turnovers' reflects the very same pattern: teams are snatching possession higher up the pitch more frequently.

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Why?

This trend aligns with teams relentlessly advancing up the field, requiring them to regain control of the ball and apply intense pressure in the middle and final thirds to thwart potential lethal counterattacks and confine their adversaries to their defensive zones.

Launching offensive maneuvers closer to the opponent's goal undoubtedly offers greater advantages compared to beginning from a deeper position on the field, especially since opponents frequently find themselves disorganized during turnovers or compelled errors.

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Tiki-taka and the long ball

It goes without saying that fewer clubs play long balls in the modern era, but what is the scale of that change?

In 2009/10, over 17% of passes were considered 'long', meaning passes that were longer than 32m. However, last season, this percentage decreased to only 11.4%, marking the lowest ratio documented.

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The following chart underscores how the top teams consistently achieve the lowest rates when it comes to playing long balls. In contrast, Leicester City, who were relegated, may have relied excessively on the short passing game in their bid to avoid relegation. This approach led to Jamie Vardy spending significant time on the substitute bench, as the team favored forwards who were better suited to receiving the ball at their feet.

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Leading teams continue to rely on the long pass as a means of diversifying their gameplay. Once more, Liverpool stands out as an exemplary team, with Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, and Virgil Van Dijk regularly utilizing the technique of distributing the ball upfield.

In the meantime, certain players, like Joachim Andersen, the centre-back for Crystal Palace, have often taken on the responsibilities of a quarterback to enhance their team's offensive strategies: Andersen made more long passes during the previous season than goalkeepers Nick Pope, Alisson, and Ederson.

Passing accuracy in the Premier League has consistently improved over the past 13 years, due to teams reducing the number of long passes attempted. In the 2009/10 season, the average passing accuracy stood at 73.1 per cent. However, this figure has significantly increased to 81.3 per cent according to the chart below.

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Brentford primarily relied on long passes to Ivan Toney during the previous season, taking advantage of David Raya's passing skills and Toney's ability to control the ball. However, despite this approach, the Bees only ranked 19th in terms of passing accuracy. In contrast, teams towards the bottom of the rankings tend to deviate from the short-passing game strategy by aiming to capitalize on the aforementioned trends, opting to bypass midfield battles and initiate counterattacks.

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Undoubtedly, the skill of a goalkeeper playing from the defensive line has become an essential requirement for nearly all renowned clubs, as they strive to maximize the potential of every team member.

The statistics from the previous season indicate that City's reserve goalkeeper Stefan Ortega and Brighton's Jason Steele embody this new generation of players. Both have achieved the shortest average distances for pass length and the highest pass completion rates.

Tap the column headers in the interactive table below to uncover that both goalkeepers were given the advantage of having passing options above the average at their disposal, indicating the tactical approach of their respective teams.

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The following chart showcases the ongoing trend among goalkeepers to enhance possession retention. From 2009/04 to 2009/10, the pass completion rate averaged at 43 percent. However, there was a notable surge thereafter, reaching an impressive 67 percent in the most recent season, setting a record for the highest ratio.

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Spain emerged as champions of the 2010 World Cup by employing a captivating tiki-taka playing style.

The accomplishments of Manchester City have inspired other elite teams to emulate their achievements. However, a few teams, such as Forest, have ventured in the opposite direction with commendable success. In fact, Forest displayed adaptability throughout the season by enticing opponents into draws and exploiting counterattacking opportunities, led by their standout talents: Morgan Gibbs-White, Brennan Jonson, and Danilo.

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In fact, even the tiki-taka experts of Manchester City chose to adopt a more direct approach at certain moments during the previous season. They brilliantly dismantled their title-rivals Arsenal 4-1 in April by skillfully passing over the Gunners' intense pressing tactics. Just four days later, City went on to surpass their own record by launching an impressive 72 long balls against Fulham, setting a new high for the club in a single season.

Short passing and accuracy in football are driven by the same principles as all other previously mentioned trends: enhancing efficiency, optimizing positioning and utility, maintaining possession, and creating more options both with and without the ball, all while mitigating the threats posed by the opposition through calculated risk and reward.

In regards to ball-playing goalkeepers, Guardiola once emphasized that limiting the opponent's possession reduces their chances of scoring. This statement may partially clarify why certain teams now seem to prioritize their goalkeeper's distribution abilities over their shot-stopping proficiency.

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Which positions are in demand?

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Forwards have predominantly commanded attention and stretched clubs' budgets the most. A quick look at the roster of record-breaking transfer fees emphasizes that attackers have consistently been the most coveted assets in football history.

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However, domestic circumstances have seen notable transformations. In 2016, upon his arrival at Manchester City, Pep Guardiola opted to replace Joe Hart with a goalkeeper skilled in ball distribution. Additionally, he acquired technically proficient midfielders Bernardo Silva and Ilkay Gundogan, followed by a substantial investment of over £100m in new full-backs during the subsequent summer transfer window.

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In January, Chelsea broke the league record by spending £106.8m on Enzo Fernandez. It is worth noting that the two priciest players in the division's history are defensive midfielders: Enzo Fernandez, who was signed for £106.8m, and Declan Rice, who was acquired for £105m. These significant transfer deals took place within the last year.

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The rise of unstoppable full-backs, capable of enduring a sprint from one end of the pitch to the other while seamlessly executing defensive and offensive tasks throughout the entire 90 minutes, created a demand for skilled defensive midfielders. These midfielders were expected to adeptly drop back, provide cover, and swiftly counter-press in order to thwart any potential threats during transitional plays.

Inverted wingers, particularly Mohamed Salah and Heung-Min Son, have dominated the forward position, even earning a shared Golden Boot in the 2021/22 season. They have thrived when playing alongside a deep-dropping central striker.

There is a growing demand for ball-playing defenders, goalkeepers, and left-footed players to maximize resources on the field. Manchester City recently transitioned from a false nine approach to favoring a more traditional No 9, like Erling Haaland, who excels at taking advantage of this new generation of defenders. Other top teams are also on the lookout for comparable players.

In an impressive fashion, the 22-year-old shattered the long-standing record of 34 league goals set by Alan Shearer and Andrew Cole almost three decades ago, by scoring an incredible 36 goals.

Within the top 10 leading goalscorers in the Premier League during the 2021/22 season, established strikers collectively managed to score just 50 goals. However, in the previous season, the overall tally skyrocketed to 133 goals, not even taking into account the contributions of Marcus Rashford, who frequently played as a forward.

The No 9 is back. We could be going full circle.

Why?

Is there a 4-4-2 renaissance? Is 4-3-3 back for good?

The 4-4-2 formation is often unfairly criticized nowadays, as it is often associated with a traditional and less strategic style of play, characterized by sending long balls towards tall forwards. However, Burnley and Southampton have defied the critics in recent seasons by adopting this old-school approach.

Since the 2006/07 season, the 4-4-2 formation has remained the most popular system in the Premier League, mainly due to its dominance in the earlier years.

In the 2006/07 season, the 4-4-2 formation was utilized a total of 498 times throughout the division. No other system has come close to achieving such dominance in a single campaign since then.

In the previous season, a total of 13 teams opted to start with a 4-4-2 formation on 62 occasions in the Premier League. Surprisingly, the 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, and 3-4-2-1 formations were utilized more frequently during this period.

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So is it making a comeback? Technically, no - quite the opposite. But, it comes with a caveat.

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The interesting aspect regarding the potential resurgence of the 4-4-2 formation is the recent adoption by several top-ranked teams. Aston Villa employed this system on 15 occasions, while Brighton utilized it three times. Notably, Liverpool, Spurs, and even Manchester City incorporated it into their gameplay, with the former two teams implementing it twice and the latter once.

Finally, spare a thought for the 4-5-1 formation, which was used 151 times in 2010/11: it was deployed merely seven times last term.

Why?

Manchester City and Liverpool, once known for their 4-3-3 formation, veered away from this system last season. This change could indicate a larger trend across the division, as the usage of 4-3-3 has now reached its highest point.

In the previous Premier League season, Guardiola opted for a 4-3-3 formation in 14 matches, compared to 28 times in the previous campaign. Klopp, on the other hand, showed slightly less variation, using it in 31 matches. Interestingly, Klopp deployed the 4-3-3 formation in every single league game during the 2021/22 season.

In the previous season, it seemed that depicting a team's formation in a conventional manner was inadequate in capturing the true dynamics of their play, both on and off the ball, during a match. The standard labels of 4-3-3, 4-4-2, and 4-2-3-1 oversimplify the intricate positional strategies coaches demand from their players.

From the early stages of the season, the strategic decision for Oleksandr Zinchenko to transition into midfield from the left-back position consistently provided Arsenal with a significant numerical advantage in the midfield area. This tactical move played a crucial role in their impressive performance throughout the first half of the season.

Rico Lewis demonstrated exceptional game intelligence at a young age by performing a similar role as a right-back for Man City. He often played in-field, forming part of a box midfield alongside Rodri. Towards the end of the season, John Stones also adopted this role, starting either as a right-back or transitioning straight from centre-back.

This trend became popular, with Trent Alexander-Arnold adopting a similar style at Liverpool and Pascal Gross utilizing his midfield skills as a right-back for Brighton. The primary objective was to increase the number of players in the central midfield area and create overloads in crucial zones, thus searching for available space. For Alexander-Arnold, this approach allowed him to highlight his exceptional ball-playing ability and minimize his vulnerability in one-on-one defensive situations.

Teams demonstrated remarkable adaptability not only in their gameplay but also in their strategies. It is not uncommon for teams to employ different defensive formations compared to their attacking ones. However, this season showcased a blatant shift in approach when teams transitioned between possession and non-possession scenarios. The traditional 4-4-2 formation experienced a resurgence, as teams positioned lines of players strategically in front of their opponents, making it incredibly challenging to break through their defensive structure.

So what about the future?

The constantly evolving tactics make it difficult for journalists and fans to categorize a team's formation based solely on a simple sequence of numbers. The intricate patterns that emerge in the Premier League this season have brought an intriguing aspect to the tactical battles.

So what about the future?

Everything is in constant motion as tactics progress. This involves utilizing goalkeepers who are skilled in playing with the ball at their feet, as well as positioning players who have a preference for a specific foot in advantageous areas. These approaches aim to create additional passing options and opportunities to take shots on goal - and data analysis plays a significant role in achieving these objectives.

The available data can now accurately anticipate the probability of successfully passing to any teammate during a game and assess the offensive danger posed by each feasible option. By incorporating these additional data points, analysts are able to objectively evaluate a player's decision-making abilities by not only examining what they chose to do, but also considering the potential alternatives. Moreover, this data can unveil the distribution of players' roles throughout a match.

The availability and scalability of this level of analysis suggest that it is only a matter of time before predictive data becomes a significant factor in game analysis. This includes both pre-match and post-match evaluations, where players' performance will be assessed based on their compatibility with these predictive models.

Management teams will increasingly analyze the impact of various player combinations on team chemistry, both in a general sense and when facing specific opponents.

Real Analytics is among the companies that employ artificial intelligence to forecast player performance at clubs, taking into account their profiles and prospective teammates. This approach presents a fresh perspective, going beyond the conventional method of purely data-mining their raw statistics, which can be influenced by the league and style of play.

Is there a sustainable pinnacle of tactics? The evolution and on-field adjustments of a team can change the dynamic and disrupt the opponent's predetermined strategies. When teams are able to adapt quickly and flawlessly, pure skill becomes a crucial advantage. However, the emergence of predictive analysis suggests that teams are now aiming to achieve tactical perfection in real-time.