Peter Bergen, CNN's national security analyst and vice president at New America, shares his own opinions in this commentary. Kobi Michael, an esteemed Israeli authority on Palestinian matters, believes that his country's leaders have misconstrued Hamas' intentions in recent years. Michael also foresees that Israel's military actions in Gaza could possibly last for several months, while suggesting that Hezbollah in Lebanon is likely to refrain from engaging in a total war with Israel.
Michael, a veteran Israeli intelligence officer, government official, and academic specializing in Palestinian affairs, brings decades of experience to his role as a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.
Kobi Michael
Courtesy Kobi Michael
Kobi Michael: Mohammed Deif is the commander of the Qassam Brigades.
Bergen: Was he in charge of this operation in Israel last weekend?
Michael: Mohammed Deif is like a cat, but instead of having nine lives, he possesses an extraordinary resilience. He is a known terrorist associated with the al-Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip since its inception. Israel has made multiple attempts to eliminate him, resulting in injuries that caused him to lose a hand, an eye, and other organs. Astonishingly, he still survives.
Deif exhibits remarkable wisdom, unyielding determination, and a captivating charisma. His unwavering dedication to his mission on earth is unparalleled, and he is even willing to sacrifice his life for it.
An Israeli soldier walks by a house destroyed by Hamas militants in Kibbutz Be'eri on Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023.
Baz Ratner/AP
Hamas, following a strategy similar to Iran, aims to initiate a multifaceted conflict against Israel. Over the past few years, Hamas has orchestrated their efforts to actualize this strategy. While maintaining peace in the Gaza Strip and receiving economic aid from Israel, Qatar, and Egypt for the region's prosperity and reconstruction, Hamas has covertly focused on rebuilding their military capabilities and readying themselves for a significant event. Regrettably, this event transpired on October 7th. Nevertheless, the question remains as to why Hamas chose to execute this attack at the present moment.
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I believe this was the rationale behind this operation because we have to understand this operation was conducted by more than 2,000 terrorists from the special unit of Hamas, the Nukhba.
Hamas surpassed their own expectations in achieving success, despite the immense tragedy that unfolded. The loss of numerous lives accentuated the brutal nature of Hamas, leading many to perceive them as an enhanced version of ISIS.
Bergen: As a former intelligence officer, there is widespread speculation about whether this disaster can be attributed to an intelligence failure. It is often convenient for policymakers to attribute blame to intelligence failures, as these agencies find it difficult to publicly defend themselves. Their allegiance lies with the policymakers, and they operate within classified boundaries. Can we classify this as an intelligence failure, a policy failure, or a combination of both?
The day after a rocket fired from Gaza hit a building, Israelis are inspecting the rubble in Tel Aviv, Israel. On Saturday, the Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip carried out a multi-front attack on Israel, launching thousands of rockets and infiltrating the heavily fortified border by air, land, and sea. The attack resulted in hundreds of deaths and captives. Additionally, Palestinian health officials reported numerous deaths from Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. (Photo by Oded Balilty/AP)
We inadvertently supported this belief by offering Gaza economic incentives, hoping it would lead Hamas to become more reasonable and less inclined to attack Israel. However, this approach turned out to be a mistake, as I have previously cautioned in my writings. It is crucial to grasp that Hamas consists of highly devout individuals who are driven by an unwavering ideology. They possess a resolute and extreme determination to dismantle the state of Israel, which may be difficult for Westerners to comprehend.
Bergen: How does Hamas affect the more secular Palestinian Authority, which was in control of Gaza until 2007 before being forcefully replaced by Hamas?
Michael: To fully comprehend the impact of Hamas on the Palestinian Authority, we need to delve into the events of 2007. It was during this time that Hamas emerged as a significant challenge to the Palestinian Authority, as their ultimate objective is to gain control over the entire Palestinian system, including the Palestinian Authority and the PLO. Perceiving the Palestinian Authority as an accomplice to Israel, Hamas seeks to undermine and dismantle it. Consequently, Hamas poses the most serious threat to the survival of the Palestinian Authority.
Rockets are fired toward Israel from the Gaza Strip, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. The rockets were fired as Hamas announced a new operation against Israel.
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad is significantly smaller than Hamas. Although they were involved in the operation, they possess a smaller and less advanced weapon supply consisting of several thousand rockets. Additionally, they have a number of active terrorists within the Gaza Strip. It should be noted that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad lacks the diverse objectives of Hamas, as Hamas operates as a religious, social, political movement, as well as a terrorist organization. Moreover, Hamas holds governing authority over the Gaza Strip.
Bergen: You referred to the social services offered by Hamas. Could you provide some details about them?
Michael: It's incredibly frustrating. We have complete control and intelligence capabilities over the entire Gaza Strip, so how is it that we didn't receive an early warning about the attack last weekend? Our intelligence is highly accurate; we know the exact locations of the tunnels and any Hamas facility. Even in a 15-story building, we can pinpoint the exact floors where Hamas is situated. There is absolutely no problem with our intelligence in this regard.
Question: Who will emerge victorious in this devastating conflict?
In order to effectively neutralize Hamas and dismantle its military capabilities, we must orchestrate a comprehensive campaign that includes both aerial and ground operations. However, it is crucial that we thoroughly prepare for this endeavor as Hamas anticipates our actions and has set up various traps. They possess significant knowledge about the strategies employed by the Israel Defense Forces in this region. We have no illusions that this mission will come without a high cost, including potential casualties. Nevertheless, if we intend to ensure the safety and survival of our community in this vicinity, we must be willing to pay this price.
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Opinion: As darkness descends on Gaza, I yearn for the world to see us, too
Michael:Â Itll take months.
Bergen: Do you think Hezbollah in Lebanon will stay on the sidelines during this war?
Michael: Israel has no intention of remaining in Gaza and ruling over the population there. The process could potentially involve an international or Arab mission force at the beginning, and ultimately result in the return of the Palestinian Authority to the Gaza Strip. However, it is important to note that the Palestinian Authority cannot immediately return to Gaza, as doing so may be perceived negatively by the Palestinian constituency. It could be seen as collaborating with Israel to overthrow Hamas. With the passage of time and proper preparations, it may become a viable option for the Palestinian Authority to resume governance over the Gaza Strip.
Antonio Macías' mother weeps beside her son's lifeless form in the Pardes Haim cemetery located in Kfar Saba, Israel, on October 15. Macías suffered a tragic demise at the hands of Hamas during an Israeli music festival earlier this month.
Palestinians collect water from a tap on October 15 after Israel blocked supplies of electricity, food, water and fuel to Gaza.
Fatima Shbair/AP
Mohammed Saber/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
In Tel Aviv, Israel, on October 14, Eli Albag and fellow protestors join together, demanding the release of over 100 Israelis who were kidnapped in the recent Hamas attack. As he clutches a photograph of his daughter Liri, Eli Albag's tears flow freely.
Mohammed Talatene/dpa/picture alliance/Getty Images
Palestinians rescue a wounded man from the rubble of a destroyed building following an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, Gaza, on October 13.
Israeli artillery fires on the Israel-Gaza border on October 13.
Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters
Dor Kedmi/AP
A Palestinian child is injured during bombing in Gaza on October 13.
Palestinians flee from northern Gaza to the south after the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning to seek refuge in the south, on October 13.
Hatem Moussa/AP
Francisco Seco/AP
Draped in sorrow, loved ones of Valentin Ghnassia gather at the Mount Herzl Military Cemetery in Jerusalem on October 12, commemorating his life. Ghnassia valiantly lost his life in a fierce encounter against Hamas militants in Be'eri, Israel.
An Israeli soldier patrols near the Nova music festival grounds near Be'eri, Israel, on October 12.
Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
A morgue worker arranges body bags at al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City on October 12.
Smoke plumes billow during Israeli air strikes in Gaza City on October 12.
Ibrahim Hams/AFP/Getty Images
Bashar Taleb/AFP/Getty Images
An Israeli army self-propelled howitzer fires rounds near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on October 11.
People carry bodies of Palestinians killed during an Israeli airstrike prior to their burial in Khan Younis, Gaza, on October 11.
Abed Rahim Khatib/Picture-Alliance/Getty Images
Yahya Hassouna/AFP/Getty Images
Palestinians run from Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, Gaza, on October 11.
Israeli soldiers load donated food into the back of a military vehicle in Sderot, Israel, on October 11.
Tamir Kalifa/The New York Times/Redux
Baz Ratner/AP
At a cemetery in Modiin Maccabim, Israel on October 11, Itzik and Miriam Shafir can be seen mourning in the center. Their son, Dor Shafir, along with his girlfriend, Savion Kiper, tragically lost their lives during the Hamas' attack on a music festival last Saturday.
A boy carries salvaged belongings from the wreckage of his family's home in Khan Younis, Gaza, on October 11.
Yousef Masoud/The New York Times/Redux
Mohammed Salem/Reuters
Palestinians mourn during the funeral of a relative killed in an Israeli strike, in Gaza City on October 10.
Attending the funeral in Ashkelon, Israel on October 10, mourners gather at the grave of Eden Guez who tragically lost her life during a terrorist attack at a music festival orchestrated by individuals from Gaza. The Israeli authorities confirm a harrowing death toll of at least 260 victims at the Nova Festival.
Israeli soldiers take position in Kfar Aza near the border with Gaza on October 10.
Palestinians rescue a young girl from the rubble of a destroyed residential building following an Israeli airstrike on October 10.
Fatima Shbair/AP
Tamir Kalifa/The New York Times/Redux
Israelis in Ashkelon take cover in a shelter as a siren sounds a warning of incoming rockets on October 10.
People gather around the bodies of two Palestinian reporters, Mohammed Soboh and Said al-Tawil, who were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City on October 10.
Fatima Shbair/AP
Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images
A family takes shelter at a neighbor's house after their home was damaged in an Israeli airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in Gaza on October 9.
Children run for cover as bombs fall near the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on October 9.
Samar Abu Elouf/The New York Times/Redux
Amir Cohen/Reuters
The ruins of the Yassin mosque are seen in the Shati refugee camp just outside Gaza City on October 9.
Friends and relatives of Ilai Bar Sade mourn next to his grave during his funeral at a military cemetery in Tel Aviv, Israel, on October 9.
Erik Marmor/AP
Ali Jadallah/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Israeli soldiers take position near the border between Gaza and Israel on October 9.
A Palestinian man mourns over the body of his nephew killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City on October 9.
Mohammed Saber/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
Israeli soldiers work on a tank at the border between Israel and Gaza on October 9.
Palestinians remove a body from the rubble of a building after an Israeli airstrike on the Jebaliya refugee camp in Gaza on October 9.
Ramez Mahmoud/AP
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
Palestinians inspect damage from Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City's Shati refugee camp on October 9.
An injured Palestinian child is pictured in the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes at al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza on October 9.
Ali Jadallah/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Erik Marmor/AP
Fire and smoke rise from Gaza City following an Israeli airstrike on October 8.
A relative of an Israeli missing since the attacks is overcome by emotion during a press conference in Ramat Gan, Israel, on October 8.
Maya Alleruzzo/AP
Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters
Israelis inspect the rubble of a building in Tel Aviv on October 8, a day after it was hit by a rocket fired from Gaza.
Oded Balilty/AP
Palestinians search the rubble of a home in Khan Younis that was destroyed by Israeli airstrikes on October 8.
Palestinian citizens inspect damage to their homes caused by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City on October 8.
Ahmad Hasballah/Getty Images
Amir Cohen/Reuters
A woman runs to her family's reinforced concrete shelter moments after rocket sirens sounded in Ashkelon on October 7.
From the window of his family's apartment, a man surveys damage from a rocket that struck a parking lot in Ashkelon on October 7.
Tamir Kalifa/The New York Times/Redux
Fatima Shbair/AP
Police officers evacuate a woman and a child from a site hit by a rocket in Ashkelon on October 7.
Israeli police take cover in Ashkelon as sirens wail while rockets are fired from Gaza into Israel on October 7.
Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
Children are seen in a damaged house in Gaza after Israeli airstrikes on October 7.
Vehicles in Ashkelon burn as rockets are launched from Gaza on October 7.
Ilan Rosenberg/Reuters
Amir Cohen/Reuters
Palestinians inspect a destroyed building as emergency responders try to contain fires after Israeli jets bombed Gaza on October 7.
Outside of a hospital in Gaza, men sit next to the covered body of a Palestinian militant killed during Saturday's clashes.
Eyad Baba/AFP/Getty Images
Ali Jadallah/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
A woman stands in a room damaged by rockets in Ashkelon on October 7.
A building in Tel Aviv is ablaze Saturday, October 7, following rocket attacks from Gaza.
Itai Ron/Reuters
Ali Jadallah/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
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Rockets are fired toward Israel from Gaza on October 7.
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The settlements were not the problem. Israel removed all the settlements in the Gaza Strip and North Samaria in 2005. Yasser Arafat's reaction to the Camp David offer, which was mediated by US President Bill Clinton in 2000, resulted in the Second Intifada.
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Israel has proven, on two occasions, its capability and willingness to evacuate settlements for the sake of peace. It is crucial for the Palestinians to make a significant decision and acknowledge that the only path to peaceful coexistence in this region is by working together with Israel, as well as becoming a part of the new regional framework, which will be established through the normalization process between Israel, Arab countries, and with the support of the United States. This new framework will effectively counter any attempts by the Iranians to increase their influence or achieve hegemony in the broader Middle East.
