The Global Impact of the Upcoming 2024 Presidential Election Beyond US Borders
Taiwan's upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections are poised to have a profound global impact, as this small yet thriving Asian democracy stands against its authoritarian neighbor The results will resonate well beyond its borders
The upcoming 2024 presidential election carries significant global implications, despite its unexpectedly early arrival. On Saturday, Taiwan's democratic nation will hold crucial presidential and parliamentary elections, with outcomes that will resonate well beyond its immediate surroundings.
China's Communist leaders are closely monitoring the outcome, as they have always regarded Taiwan as part of their territory, despite never having controlled it. However, the majority of Taiwan's population opposes being under China's rule, especially as Xi Jinping's leadership becomes more authoritarian and aggressive towards neighboring countries.
Pedestrians walk down a shopping street in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023.
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As election nears in Taiwan, many young voters say China isnt their biggest concern
China openly opposes Taiwan's current ruling party and has presented the election as a decisive choice between "war and peace, prosperity and decline." In a New Year's Eve speech, Xi issued a stern warning to Taiwan, stating that "The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability."
Taiwan continues to be the primary source of tension between China and the US, the island's main international supporter and supplier of arms. Relations between the two global superpowers have been turbulent for years.
The response of China to the decisions made by the voters in Taiwan this weekend will determine the potential for tension management or escalation towards further confrontation, and possibly conflict, between Beijing and Washington.
Here's what you should know about this pivotal election:
A debate in Taipei on December 30, 2023, brought together Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih from the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), and Ko Wen-je from the opposition Taiwan People's Party (TPP) for a photo opportunity.
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Who are the candidates?
Three candidates are competing to replace President Tsai Ing-wen, who is unable to seek re-election after serving for eight years due to term limits.
Leading the closely contested race is Lai Ching-te, the current vice president representing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocates for Taiwan's de-facto sovereignty and distinct identity from China.
A former doctor now in politics, Lai has shifted his stance from being a strong proponent of Taiwan independence to offering to maintain the "status quo" and engage in diplomatic talks with Beijing. His running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, is also a notable figure in Washington, having previously served as Taiwans envoy, despite being sanctioned twice by China for her strong pro-independence stance.
Amid the disputed South China Sea, a member of the Philippine Coast Guard keeps watch on a China Coast Guard ship as it carries out a resupply mission for the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal on Friday, Nov. 10, 2023. The shoal is claimed by both China and the Philippines, with at least three other neighboring countries also staking claims to the larger Spratly Islands chain where it is located. Photographer: Lisa Marie David/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Are Chinas actions in the South China Sea a harbinger of things to come for Taiwan?
Hou Yu-ih, a popular former mayor of New Taipei City and a former police officer from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, is seen as the biggest challenger to Lai. He advocates for peaceful relations with China and aims to boost economic and social ties while strengthening Taiwan's defense. Another contender, Ko Wen-je, is the founder of the Taiwan Peoples Party (TPP) and is known for focusing on everyday issues that resonate with younger voters who are frustrated with traditional politics, stagnant wages, and unaffordable housing.
Ko has advocated for a "middle path" in relations with China, criticizing the DPP for being overly hostile and the KMT for being too submissive. If Lai and the DPP win another term, it would be the first time a political party in Taiwan has been elected for a third term, marking a significant milestone in the country's 27-year democratic history and challenging China's aggressive stance towards Taiwan.
Supporters of Lai Ching-te, presidential candidate of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), cheer during an election campaign rally in Keelung on January 8, 2024.
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How has China reacted?
China has historically employed a combination of rewards and punishments in order to convince Taiwan to comply with its "reunification" proposal. However, under Xi's leadership, it has predominantly resorted to using punitive measures. In the eight years since Tsai's initial election, Beijing has severed most communication with Taipei, lured away its diminishing diplomatic allies, reduced cross-strait interactions, and notably escalated military intimidation.
These assertive actions have strained cross-strait relations to their lowest point in decades and pushed Taiwan further away. Currently, less than 3% of Taiwan's population identifies primarily as Chinese, and less than 10% support immediate or eventual unification.
In the past eight years, Taiwan has strengthened its ties with Western countries, particularly the United States, which has caused concern in Beijing.
Officials in China, a one-party state, have urged the people of Taiwan to make the "correct choice" - widely seen as a euphemism for not voting DPP.
People use mobile phones in Taipei City, Taiwan, 27 July 2020. —
People use mobile phones in Taipei City, Taiwan, 27 July 2020.
Ceng Shou Yi/NURPHO/AP
Taiwan faces a flood of disinformation from China ahead of crucial election. Heres how its fighting back
Taiwanese officials have alleged that China has been trying to influence its elections through disinformation campaigns on social media and economic coercion. In the lead-up to the election, China has maintained military pressure on Taiwan by deploying fighter jets, drones, and warships near its skies and waters. Additionally, Beijing has flown balloons over the island, which Taiwan's defense ministry has described as part of a "psychological warfare tactic aimed at undermining the morale of our citizens."
Few experts anticipate an immediate invasion from the Peoples Liberation Army, but Beijing has various options to express dissatisfaction, including military exercises, further suspension of trade with Taiwan, or even a blockade. The extent of these actions and the response from the US and its allies will be closely monitored by a world already on edge due to conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
Supporters await the arrival of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te in Universal City, California, on January 25, 2022.
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What is the US relationship with Taiwan?
Formal ties between Washington and Taiwan were severed in 1979 when diplomatic recognition was switched from Taipei to Beijing. Despite this, the US has continued to maintain strong unofficial relations with Taiwan and is obligated by law to support the island's defense. However, the US has been intentionally ambiguous about whether it would come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese attack.
During President Joe Biden's administration, as well as under his predecessor Donald Trump, the US has increased its support and arms sales to Taiwan. Biden has also stated multiple times that the US would protect Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, raising concerns about a potential shift away from the longstanding policy of "strategic ambiguity." This stance has raised tensions with Beijing, which has cautioned that the Taiwan issue is a "red line" that should not be crossed in China-US relations.
Washington asserts that it is not showing favoritism towards any presidential candidate in Taiwan. Additionally, Biden stated that he explicitly cautioned Xi against meddling in the election during their summit in San Francisco in November. Taiwan's election is occurring as the US works to stabilize tense relations with China and prevent competition from escalating into conflict.
Meanwhile the US will hold its own presidential election in November, a vote that will be closely watched by Taiwans new leaders and the islands 24 million people.
