The Decline of Leonardo DiCaprio's Oscar Chances: What Went Wrong?

The High Expectations

Leonardo DiCaprio's role as Ernest Burkhart in Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon might have been considered Oscar-worthy initially, but the chances of that happening have narrowed significantly now.

Killers Of The Flower Moon Ernest Burkhart Smiling

Killers of the Flower Moon reunites Robert De Niro and DiCaprio after starring together in 1993's This Boy's Life and 1996's Marvin's Room. Interestingly, besides being two of the best actors in movie history, they are Scorsese's two favorite actors working together for the first time in a movie directed by Scorsese himself. Taking that into consideration, and also keeping in mind the quality of the film, initially, expectations were high of DiCaprio having a chance at his second Oscar ever.

Mollie (Lily Gladstone) smiling in Killers of the Flower Moon.

Killers of the Flower Moon was released on October 20th, 2024, and unlike other big releases such as Barbie and Oppenheimer, which continue to be a trend almost six months after their respective releases, its momentum was rather short. Despite the film's incredible quality, displayed both through its direction and through the cast, the 2024 Golden Globes ceremony seems to indicate a clear tendency toward Nolan's masterpiece. Furthermore, the recent awards nominations announcement is bad news for Leo DiCaprio and his chances at the Academy Awards.

Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer's final moments.

SAG Awards Snub and Its Implications

The SAG Awards nominations have been announced, and Leonardo DiCaprio's absence on the list is one of the most surprising things. The SAG Awards were founded in 1995, so they have significantly less history than the Academy Awards. However, keeping in mind that these are the awards delivered by the Actors Guild, their importance, and their correlation with the Oscars' acting categories is remarkable.

Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in black and white conducting his first show in Maestro

Even though the Male Actor in a Leading Role category in both awards is frequently the same, there have been several times in which an actor who didn't get a nomination at the SAGs then received an Oscar nomination. So, Leonardo DiCaprio's chances of getting nominated are less than if he was nominated for a SAG, but not dead at all. However, there has never been an actor to win the Oscar Best Actor category without a previous SAG nomination. In other words, DiCaprio will set a milestone if he wins the Oscar, but, at the same time, that stat pretty much kills his chances of winning.

Paul Giamatti in a brown suit in front of a chalk board in The Holdovers

The Future of the Oscars 2024: Who Will Win Best Actor?

While Paul Giamatti's win for The Holdovers at the Golden Globes and his recent SAG nomination surely make him a strong contender for the Oscar, performances in a more comedy-related tone tend to be overlooked by the Academy. In addition to this, Bradley Cooper's brilliant performance in Maestro, his second film as a director, might as well take the award with a rather surprising outcome. However, Oscar 2024 predictions for Lead Actor seem to indicate that Cillian Murphy, who has gained massive fame for his role as Tommy Shelby in Peaky Blinders, will extend his success to the film industry and win his first Oscar for his amazing performance in Nolan's Oppenheimer.

Colman Domingo wearing a suit and glasses as Bayard Rustin at the Lincoln Memorial in the movie Rustin