The Armenian Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh: A Continuing Challenge to Azerbaijan's Ambitions
Azerbaijan's President, Ilham Aliyev, fulfilled his long-awaited mission of reclaiming Nagorno-Karabakh, as he proudly declared on the 20th anniversary of his inauguration This article delves into the Armenian exodus, the uncertain future faced by the region, and the elusive dream of lasting peace
On the 20th anniversary of his inauguration, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stood on the empty streets of Nagorno-Karabakh and declared that he had accomplished the "sacred objective" of his presidency: reclaiming the land that was taken from his father. For decades, Azerbaijan had been plagued by the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, a small enclave in the Caucasus region that was the center of a long-standing conflict. Armenians consider it to be the birthplace of their civilization, but it is located within the borders of Azerbaijan, surrounded by hostile territory.
As independent Soviet republics, Azerbaijan and Armenia maintained peaceful relations under the supervision of Moscow. However, as the Soviet Union disintegrated, Armenia, asserting its power, engaged in a violent conflict with its weaker neighbor, seizing Nagorno-Karabakh in the 1990s.
The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh became a persistent problem that Aliyev vowed to resolve. Frustrated with what he perceived as diplomatic talks designed to simply prolong the conflict, Aliyev decided to shift his approach after numerous unproductive summits over the years, from Minsk to Key West.
Diplomacy failed, leading to the intervention of brute force. Despite the ongoing conflict, Azerbaijan had undergone a significant transformation, becoming oil-rich and garnering support from Turkey. In a 44-day war in 2020, Azerbaijan, armed and backed by Turkey, successfully reclaimed a third of Nagorno-Karabakh, stopped only by a Russian-brokered ceasefire.
However, the ceasefire agreement proved to be fragile, and in September, Azerbaijan initiated another strike. In just 24 hours, the Karabakh government surrendered, unable to match Azerbaijan's military strength. Within a week, the ethnic Armenian population fled the region, prompting the European Parliament to accuse Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing - an allegation that Azerbaijan denies. "We achieved peace through war," stated Aliyev at a forum earlier this month.
The longevity of this peace remains uncertain, as ethnic nationalism and the pursuit of territorial reunification upon which Aliyev established his legitimacy in Azerbaijan may seek out new targets rather than fade away. Meanwhile, Armenia, with its vulnerable military and lack of allies, is grappling with the challenge of accommodating over 100,000 Karabakh refugees, many of whom are finding it difficult to adapt to their new circumstances.
Karabakh flags fly in the Yerablur Military Cemetery in Yerevan, Armenia, above the graves of those killed during Azerbaijan's latest offensive, November 22, 2023.
Anthony Pizzoferrato/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images
Life in limbo
Nonna Poghosyan escaped from her home in Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, with her husband, twin children, and elderly parents. They currently reside in a small apartment in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. However, Poghosyan, who previously worked as the program coordinator for the American University of Armenia in Stepanakert, expressed her ongoing connection to Karabakh.
"I'm desperate to know what's going on in Stepanakert. What's happening to my house? I envy anyone who is able to breathe the air there," she told CNN.
Aliyev claimed that the abandoned houses had been left "untouched," however, videos on social media depict Azerbaijani troops vandalizing the homes.
Poghosyan expressed distress, stating, "I cannot bear to think that it has been taken by someone else. That is the house we built for our children."
The children were on their way home from school when Azerbaijani rockets struck Stepanakert on September 19. Her husband found them on the roadside and brought them to a bomb shelter. When they woke up the next day, the self-styled Republic of Artsakh had surrendered, leaving their lives in disarray. The following week, they joined the mass exodus of people fleeing their homes, as Nagorno-Karabakh had been under blockade for 10 months due to the cutoff of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan, leaving them starved and weary.
Now, the once-blocked road that prevented necessities from entering has been opened to let the population pour out. Poghosyan mentioned that it took her four days to drive from Stepanakert to Yerevan as tens of thousands fled at once, a journey that typically only took four hours.
A truck carries refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh on September 28. More than 100,000 Armenians fled the enclave in the days after Azerbaijan's lightning offensive.
Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty Images
Karabakh refugees gathered what belongings they could and fled to Armenia, arriving at makeshift registration centers in border towns like Goris.
As Armenian citizens, the Yerevan government offered a warm welcome to the refugees, though the assistance it can provide is limited. Poghosyan was given a one-time payment of 100,000 Armenian dram (approximately $250), but she is paying 300,000 dram (about $750) in rent. Her family relies on the savings they had set aside for their children's education, funds that will only sustain them for a few months.
We left our souls there
The Karabakh government's dissolution has resulted in Poghosyan losing her child benefits, her parents losing their pensions, and her husband - a former soldier - losing his salary. Despite this, she considers herself fortunate to have an apartment. "There are people living in cars. There are people living in school basements, playgrounds," she said.
Every morning, Gayane Lalabekyan wakes up in her new apartment in Yerevan and questions whether she made the right decision. Like many Karabakh Armenians adjusting to their new lives, she reflects on what they could have done differently.
"Was it the right move?" Lalabekyan, a teacher of English, confided to CNN. She often grapples with guilt for leaving her homeland, but then recalls the "primitive fear" she experienced when fleeing.
"When I lay eyes on my daughter and her little son, when I look at my 72-year-old mother, when I witness my son and his wife, who got married in July; I realize that if we had never left, I might not have them," she said.
Armenian children wait outside a registration center in Goris, Armenia, while their parents stand in line, on September 27, 2023.
Anthony Pizzoferrato/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images
Aliyev stated that Armenians who chose to stay in Karabakh would need to embrace Azerbaijani citizenship. He expressed that they had two options: assimilate with the rest of Azerbaijan or become a part of history.
However, due to years of conflict, very few Armenians felt secure living in Azerbaijan and almost none were willing to be governed by the Baku government, despite Azerbaijan's claims that no civilians were affected by what they referred to as "anti-terror actions" in the region.
"Lalabekyan expressed his distrust of Aliyev, calling him a devil and questioning their promises," said. "Coexistence seems impossible."
The Russian peacekeepers deployed to Karabakh in 2020 were supposed to ensure the protection of the Armenians in the region under the ceasefire agreement brokered by Moscow.
The attack followed a breakdown in Armenia's relationship with Russia, as Yerevan was dissatisfied with Russia's failure to support it against Azerbaijani aggression. As a result, Armenia sought to establish new partnerships with Western countries to diversify its security network. Russia saw this as a betrayal and distanced itself from its once loyal ally. Despite criticism, Russia stood by as the ceasefire it negotiated was broken, citing limitations due to its military involvement in Ukraine and its desire to avoid upsetting Azerbaijan and Turkey.
A billboard showing Russian President Vladimir Putin stands above a largely deserted road leading to Stepanakert after Azerbaijan's offensive, October 2, 2023.
Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images
Lacking Russia's protection and receiving only verbal support from the West, Armenians in Karabakh felt compelled to flee. However, for Lalabekyan, this decision offers little comfort as she now feels like a foreigner in her own homeland.
"What will we do next? We dont know who we are. Are we Artsakh citizens or Armenian citizens? We cant answer this question. We left everything there. We left our souls there."
The prospect of peace
The suffering of the Karabakh refugees is seen by some as a necessary sacrifice for regional peace. Nagorno-Karabakh is officially part of Azerbaijan, so Armenia had to give up the territory for reconciliation. However, Aliyev has not shown much generosity in his victory. During his first visit to the enclave, he disrespected the Karabakh flag and ridiculed the imprisoned Karabakh politicians as they tried to escape.
Ruben Vardanyan, former State Minister of Artsakh, is among those detained. His son, David, spoke to CNN about the lack of transparency in his father's legal situation, as he faces charges of "financing terrorism" and "illegal border crossings," among other things. Due to the absence of diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Vardanyan has been denied consular access, and David has only been able to speak to his father once since his arrest. "He just said he might be there for a while," David said. David emphasized the importance of releasing political prisoners in order to achieve peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Ruben Vardanyan, a former Karabakh politician, was arrested by Azerbaijani soldiers while fleeing Karabakh and was being held in Baku, September 28, 2023.
The Azerbaijan State Security Service/AP
Following the recapture of Karabakh, Baku withdrew from peace negotiations in Brussels and Washington, claiming bias against Azerbaijan. Additionally, there has been an escalation in rhetoric regarding territorial aspirations. Official government documents now refer to Armenia as "western Azerbaijan," a nationalist ideology asserting that Armenia is situated on Azerbaijani territory.
Some hope, however, came on December 7 when Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a prisoner exchange - a deal brokered without Brussels or Washington, but which was welcomed by both. The US said it hoped the exchange would "lay the groundwork for a more peaceful and prosperous future." Armenia also removed its block on Azerbaijan's candidacy to host the COP29 climate conference next year.
Azerbaijan soldiers were seen walking at the Lachin checkpoint on September 26, 2023. On the same day, a large number of vehicles were observed heading to Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan's swift offensive against the separatist enclave, according to an AFP team at the scene. Families were witnessed piling their belongings on top of their cars as they made their way through the last Azerbaijani checkpoint before entering Armenia via the Lachin Corridor. The continuous flow of vehicles indicated the urgency and speed of the movement. (Photo by Emmanuel Dunand / AFP) (Photo by EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images)
Azerbaijan and Armenia have come to an agreement on a prisoner swap and are committed to working towards a peace deal. The main challenge will be Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani exclave that is isolated from the mainland by a small area of southern Armenia. Aliyev aims to create a "land corridor" through Armenia to connect Nakhchivan to the rest of Azerbaijan.
Aliyev justified the "Zangezur" corridor as a "historical inevitability" that will be implemented regardless of Armenia's stance. Although Armenia is not entirely against the concept, it is unwilling to cede control over its territory. Instead, it proposed a plan to revitalize the region's infrastructure, including the restoration of neglected train lines to enhance connectivity with Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, Iran, and other countries. The goal is to facilitate trade that was hindered by the prolonged conflicts, naming the initiative the "Crossroads of Peace."
Armenia's preferences may have little influence, as Aliyev stated in December that there should be no customs duties, checks, or border security when traveling from mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. He also urged Armenians to start construction immediately at their own expense. While Aliyev claimed to have no intention of occupying Armenian territory, he asserted that Azerbaijan has historical, political, and legal rights to contest Armenia's territorial integrity, citing the territory taken from Azerbaijan in 1920 under Soviet rule.
Anna Ohanyan, a senior scholar in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that Aliyev's rhetoric had softened since the announcement of the prisoner exchange, attributing this shift to significant pushback from the US.
According to Ohanyan, Aliyev's objectives remain unchanged: he still seeks conflict or rivalry with Armenia, even after regaining full control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Ohanyan expressed skepticism that hosting COP29 may only result in temporary improved behavior from Aliyev, citing Russia's hosting of the 2014 Winter Olympics followed by the annexation of Crimea.
Aliyev watches over a military parade in Stepanakert, known by Azerbaijanis as Khankendi, on November 8, 2023.
The Azerbaijani Presidency/Anadolu/Getty Images depicts a concerning increase in military presence around southern Armenia, raising doubts about the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts. Olesya Vartanyan, a senior analyst for the South Caucasus at Crisis Group, has cautioned that Azerbaijani forces stationed along the border have the potential to significantly threaten Armenia's territorial integrity.
The Armenians of Karabakh have long been aware of the geopolitical challenges they face. However, the rapid breakdown of peace after 30 years has left them unprepared for the uncertain future that lies ahead. Many have lost their homes, possessions, and means of living. Poghosyan expressed the tragedy of the situation, acknowledging the involvement of powerful nations but emphasizing the human cost for the 100,000 people affected.
