Taiwan voters defy China's warnings, award ruling party a landmark third consecutive presidential victory
Taiwan defies China's warnings as ruling party secures historic third consecutive presidential win, dealing a major blow to Beijing
The Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan achieved an unprecedented third consecutive presidential win on Saturday, despite Chinese warnings about potential conflict. Taiwan's current vice president, Lai Ching-te, declared victory on Saturday evening, with his main opposition rivals conceding defeat.
Lai expressed gratitude to the people of Taiwan for paving the path to a new era in their democracy. He emphasized their strong dedication to democracy and confirmed his acceptance of congratulatory calls from his opponents. Lai also affirmed that Taiwan will consistently align with democracies globally, positioning themselves against authoritarianism.
Lai's running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, who previously held the role of Taiwan's top envoy to the United States, has been elected as Vice President.
According to the results from Taiwan's Central Election Committee, Lai secured 41 percent of the popular vote, while his two main rivals trailed behind with 33 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The results were still being finalized during the victory and concession speeches.
The lively election campaign in Taiwan showcased the country's strong democratic values, focusing on both domestic livelihood issues and the challenging relationship with China. The outcome revealed widespread support for the DPP's stance that Taiwan is effectively an independent nation and should strengthen its defense against China's threats, while also strengthening ties with other democratic nations - even if it results in economic or military pressure from Beijing.
The refusal is also a rejection of the eight years of aggressive tactics towards Taiwan under Xi, who has declared that the eventual "reunification" of the island with the mainland is "a historical inevitability".
Supporters of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei on January 13, 2024
Yasuyosh Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Similar to outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen, who is unable to run again due to term limits, Lai is openly despised by Chinese Communist Party leaders, and his win is unlikely to result in any improvement in relations between Beijing and Taipei.
China severed most communication with Taipei after Tsai assumed office and increased diplomatic, economic, and military pressure on the self-governing island, transforming the Taiwan Strait into one of the world's significant geopolitical hotspots.
The Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan as part of its territory, although it has never governed it. Despite previous promises of "reunification," Xi Jinping has stressed the importance of resolving the Taiwan issue in the context of China's future "national rejuvenation" by mid-century.
On the other hand, the DPP asserts that Taiwan is not under the control of the Chinese Communist Party, and insists that the fate of Taiwan should be determined solely by its 23.5 million inhabitants.
Leading up to the election on Saturday, Beijing cautioned voters in Taiwan to "choose wisely" and understand "the serious threat posed by Lai Ching-te's actions in escalating tensions between the two sides."
Throughout his campaign, Lai emphasized the significance of safeguarding Taiwan's democracy, which had been hard-won.
"We have no illusions as we strive for peace," he told reporters earlier this week. "Taiwan is committed to being an active participant in promoting peace and stability alongside the international community."
His partner in the election, Hsiao, has been sanctioned twice by China for his stance as a "resolute separatist."
Blow for Beijing
Lais triumph occurs as the United States seeks to mend tense relations with China and avoid the escalation of competition into confrontation. Throughout Tsais tenure, Taiwan strengthened its relationship with the United States, its most significant global supporter, leading to an increase in support and weapon sales to the island.
US officials have confirmed that regardless of who is in charge, Washington will maintain its established policy towards Taiwan. After the election, the Biden administration plans to send an unofficial delegation, which will include former senior officials, to Taipei, continuing with previous customs as stated by senior officials.
T.Y. Wang, a professor at Illinois State University, noted that the delegation visit "will be a signal, a very symbolic way of supporting Taiwan."
The result on Saturday is another significant setback for Taiwans Kuomintang, which supports closer relations with Beijing and has not held the presidency since 2016.
According to Lev Nachman, a political science professor at Taiwans National Chengchi University, although Lai needs to address economic concerns such as low wages and unaffordable housing, he is expected to mostly continue Tsais approach on foreign policy and cross-strait relations.
"So much of (Lais) campaign has been trying to reassure not just a domestic audience, but international audience that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0," he said.
That will not be welcome in Beijing.
Prior to the election, the China Taiwan Affairs Office warned that by following Tsai's approach, Lai is moving towards a path of provocation and confrontation, which could lead Taiwan "closer and closer to war and recession."
Experts anticipate that China may increase economic and military pressure on Taiwan in the near future to express its disapproval, or possibly unleash a stronger reaction in May when Lai assumes office.
"Theres multiple times that China could cause a fuss over a DPP victory, either now or later this year," Nachman said.
And Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox too.
Before the vote, China removed preferential tariffs for certain Taiwanese imports within a free trade agreement. It might expand the range of goods affected, or potentially halt the agreement entirely. Additionally, China could escalate military pressure on Taiwan by deploying additional fighter jets and warships near the island's airspace and waters, a strategy that has become more common in recent years.
Taiwan's security officials stated that they did not anticipate China to engage in large-scale military actions after the election. They cited unsuitable winter weather conditions, troubles in the Chinese economy, and efforts by Beijing and Washington to stabilize ties following a bilateral summit in November. Analysts also noted that while an escalation of military tension could increase the risks of accidents and miscalculations, it did not necessarily indicate an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Nachman stated that being in power does not automatically mean that China will go to war. Despite the discomfort of the last eight years with the DPP in power, it has not escalated to war. Instead, they have managed to find a uneasy compromise. The expectation is that even with a Lai presidency, they can maintain this uneasy peace without resorting to war.
