South Africa's Long-standing Political Reign Faces a Momentous Crossroads

South Africans are gearing up to vote on May 29 in what is expected to be a crucial general election since the end of apartheid. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) party may face the possibility of losing its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela's leadership in 1994. Despite the difficulty of polling in South Africa, many experts agree that the ANC is confronting a tough challenge as the population is increasingly dissatisfied with the country's current trajectory.

Since the end of white minority rule 30 years ago, South Africa has conducted its seventh general election. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) reports a record number of 27.79 million registered voters, the highest so far. The decline in popularity reflects the struggles faced by liberation movements that have become ruling parties in various countries across the continent.

So, what might happen next?

If the support for the ANC falls below 50% for the first time, the party will need to form a coalition government. This would create pressure on President Cyril Ramaphosa within his party, especially since he promised a "new dawn" when he took over leadership in 2018 from former president Jacob Zuma.

Over the years, support for the ANC has been gradually declining. In the last election in 2019, the party received 57.50% of the vote, dropping below 60% for the first time.

What's the issue with the ANC?

South Africans are facing various challenges. Violent crime is increasing, and the murder rate is currently at its highest in 20 years. According to the latest quarterly police crime statistics, someone is killed in the country approximately every 20 minutes. This has led to a loss of faith in the police and a general breakdown in trust in the government.

South Africa general election 101

South Africa uses a system called "proportional representation" where citizens vote for a single party instead of a presidential candidate. In the national elections, voters have a choice of 31 political parties to choose from. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) facilitates this process.

The Rainbow Nation is facing a growing challenge with the highest sustained rate of unemployment in the world. Alongside this, there are issues such as rolling electricity blackouts, water outages, a crisis in education, and a lack of service delivery that are burdening the population.

Allegations of corruption and mismanagement are among the top concerns that continue to harm the ANC.

When Ramaphosa took over from Jacob Zuma as president, he promised to work hard to not let the people of South Africa down. However, in 2022, he had to defend himself against accusations of stealing money.

In a speech in November, Ramaphosa acknowledged that corruption has hurt democracy and made people lose trust in their institutions. He emphasized that if corruption is not stopped, the real harm will not be in the money stolen or services not provided, but in the loss of faith in democracy.

South Africa received its lowest score on Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index this year. The index rates countries from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean), with South Africa scoring 41, lower than both China and Cuba, which scored 42.

Who are the other main parties involved?

The centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), led by John Steenhuisen, is the country's main opposition party. Many people view the DA as a party primarily for White South Africans.

For the upcoming election, the DA has joined forces with smaller opposition parties to create a coalition bloc known as the Multi-Party Charter.

Democratic Alliance (DA) party leader Johan Steenhuisen speaks to supporters during a party event on May 9, 2024, in Soweto, South Africa.

Democratic Alliance (DA) party leader Johan Steenhuisen speaks to supporters during a party event on May 9, 2024, in Soweto, South Africa.

According to the polls, the ANC might have to decide whether to form a coalition with either the Zuma-backed party - uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) - or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or the DA.

Steenhuisen has not ruled out forming a coalition with the ANC to prevent the EFF and MK from being in government. The EFF, led by Julius Malema, is a far-left populist party that originated as a splinter group of the ANC. They advocate for land expropriation without compensation and strong state nationalism.

The EFF has expressed its backing for the MK party. Malema mentioned that if the EFF does not receive 50% of the vote, he is willing to support the ANC. However, this support is contingent on his deputy, Floyd Shivambu, being appointed as Minister of Finance. Steenhuisen has referred to a potential alliance between the ANC, EFF, and MK as a "doomsday coalition."

Speaking of Zuma...

The former president remains a constant source of trouble for Ramaphosa. Despite serving a short jail term in 2021 for contempt of court, he is now leading the MK party. He was recently at the top of their parliamentary list.

Seth Mazibuko, at the young age of 16, played a key role in the Soweto youth uprising on 16th June 1976. He was later arrested and spent 11 months in solitary confinement at Fort Prison in Johannesburg. Following this, he was imprisoned on Robben Island for a period of seven years.

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South Africa is celebrating 30 years of democracy, but there is a hidden crisis that could jeopardize the progress made. The Constitutional Court made a decision on Monday stating that he cannot run for parliament until five years have passed since finishing his sentence. This ruling, supported by all judges, ends the debate and legal battles over his eligibility to run for the country's main legislative body.

His party will still participate in the election and his name will still be on the list of candidates.

Zuma has been speaking out against what he sees as Ramaphosa's shortcomings, and many disenchanted ANC supporters have been agreeing with him, as shown in polls. A recent poll by the Johannesburg-based Social Research Foundation suggested that the ANC might receive 37% of the votes, while MK could get 13%.

The most recent polling from the same foundation shows that the MK party has 10.5% support and the ANC has 44.8% support as of Monday. This indicates that the ANC might be regaining support and may just require a minor coalition partner.

When can we expect to receive the final outcome?

The IEC stated that the final election results will be revealed on Sunday 2 June. Projections may provide an idea of the outcome shortly after the polls close, and the final result could be disclosed sooner if the vote counting process finishes early.

Editor's P/S:

South Africa's upcoming general election is a pivotal moment in the nation's history. The ruling ANC party, once the symbol of liberation, faces a formidable challenge as the population grapples with deep-rooted issues such as rampant crime, unemployment, and corruption. The decline in support for the ANC reflects a growing disillusionment with the government's ability to address these pressing concerns.

The outcome of the election remains uncertain, with various scenarios possible. Should the ANC lose its majority, it would be forced to form a coalition government, potentially leading to significant political realignments. The emergence of the Zuma-backed MK party adds an additional layer of intrigue, as its performance could influence the balance of power. The final outcome will have profound implications for South Africa's future, shaping the nation's political landscape and determining its capacity to confront the challenges that lie ahead.