Crucial State Elections in Germany: A Litmus Test for the Shifting Political Landscape

The German states of Bavaria and Hesse are holding regional elections on Sunday, which many consider to be a pivotal moment for Germany's changing political landscape. The far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is expected to make significant advances in both states, despite most other major parties refusing to form alliances with it.

Sundays elections are anticipated to provide insights into the level of influence held by the AfD in the regions. Additionally, they may serve as a strong indicator of growing dissatisfaction with important matters such as inflation, immigration, and climate policy, possibly sending a strong message to the federal government.

One major question is whether the lack of support for Scholz's ruling traffic light coalition - which is made up of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens - in Bavaria and Hesse will increase support for the conservative opposition, or if the far-right will gain votes from a disenchanted electorate.

In Hesse, where Frankfurt, Germany's financial hub, is located, dissatisfaction with the federal government poses a threat to Scholz's coalition. Although the regional election will not directly impact federal politics, a lack of support for Scholz's SPD-led government in Hesse could signal concerns leading up to the country's next federal election.

German flags are carried at an AfD election campaign event.

Bavaria, the largest state in Germany and a conservative Catholic region renowned for its Oktoberfest beer halls, bratwurst, and lederhosen, is grappling with the same challenges as the rest of the country: immigration, increasing energy expenses, and a struggling economy.

Bavaria's economy minister has been caught up in a recent scandal involving antisemitism, causing a wave of shock throughout Germany and leading to demands for his resignation.

For more than 70 years, Bavaria has been predominantly governed by a single party, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), which is the sister party of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Bavaria's Minister-President, Markus Söder, aims to maintain his governing coalition of the CSU and the right-wing Free Voters (FW) in the crucial upcoming Sunday election. However, the political landscape could potentially shift as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to gain a record share of the vote.

The CDU finds itself at a crucial juncture as it has held power for a significant part of Germany's post-war era. Often associated with traditional conservatism, the party, under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, embraced a receptive approach towards refugees and viewed immigration as a vital component of Germany's prospective development.

Nevertheless, the party's shift towards more liberal policies has faced backlash from critics who argue that it no longer effectively represents the middle ground in Germany. This criticism has caused some voters to turn away from the CDU and towards the AfD.

The AfD made its debut in Bavaria during the 2018 state elections, securing a 10% vote share and ranking fourth. This outcome was widely perceived as a blow to the CSU, as it not only led to the loss of their absolute majority but also enabled the AfD to exert influence in Bavaria's state government.

A woman rides a bicycle past election posters in Frankfurt.

Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images

Before 2018, the CSU had come close to achieving an overwhelming majority in Bavaria's state assembly only once since 1954, falling just two seats short in 2008. In previous years, the CSU's vote share typically hovered around 50% in Bavaria. Presently, the AfD is poised to surpass its 2018 performance, as recent polls indicate the party's support level at approximately 15%.

According to a September poll conducted by INSA, the AfD has gained ground in East Germany's former communist states, surpassing the CDU in Saxony for the first time. In the days leading up to the election, there has been a noticeable opposition to the far-right party, with tens of thousands of people protesting against it in Munich, the capital of Bavaria.

Charlotte Knoblauch, a Holocaust survivor and former president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, conveyed to the demonstrators, "It is imperative for everyone to understand: Any downward slope today can ultimately engulf our democracy."

In a conversation with CNN prior to the Sunday vote, Katrin-Ebner Steiner, the co-leader of AfD in Bavaria, expressed contempt towards the other political parties in Germany and advocated for a radical reevaluation of key policy areas in the country.

Steiners strong opposition to migrants was evident when she criticized her opponents for "placing the country in an incredibly challenging position" by permitting "unrestricted mass migration," which she characterized as an "invasion."

She further stated, "The borders are inadequately secured, resulting in an unprecedented surge in unauthorized border crossings... In Bavaria, we not only advocate for a cap on migrant intake but also a well-structured and legally compliant process of repatriation."

Steiner strongly criticized the right-wing FW, condemning their endorsement of the CSU's misguided choices over the past five years. She accused rival party leader Hubert Aiwanger and the FW of emulating the AfD's policies and campaign rhetoric.

Despite being implicated in an antisemitism scandal, the FW has seen a surge in popularity leading up to Sunday's election. Recent polls show the party with approximately 16% of the vote, placing them second behind the CSU with 36.5%.

Antisemitism row

Since its establishment in 1998, the relatively new political party, Bavarias FW, has forged a coalition with the CSU following the last state election in 2018. Both parties align on socially conservative and economically liberal values.

The party, originally a grassroots movement, has grown in popularity and is now a major player in Bavaria's political landscape. However, it remains relatively unknown outside of the southern state.

In the run-up to the recent election, the party faced controversy regarding allegations of antisemitism. Leader Hubert Aiwanger, who also serves as Bavaria's economy minister, was accused of having far-right sympathies after a report in Germany's Süddeutesche Zeitung suggested that he had distributed leaflets making fun of Holocaust victims during his school days. Despite this, Aiwanger maintains that it has not affected his party's support.

In an interview with CNN, Aiwanger stated that the intention of the Süddeutsche Zeitung was to harm his election campaign, but it appears to have had the opposite effect.

He added that numerous individuals consider it inappropriate for the newspaper to bring up incidents from his childhood and youth in an attempt to undermine his position as a minister. As a result, many of these individuals have expressed their intent to vote for him even more enthusiastically.

Hubert Aiwanger, leader of the Free Voters, stands in a beer tent at the Mainburg "Gallimarkt."

Sven Hoppe/dpa/picture alliance/Getty Images

Aiwanger asserted that without his party's presence, Bavaria would already have a powerful AfD in the state government. He stated that the FW party is capable of attracting disillusioned voters from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the CSU, or the FDP.

"We are not a party of protest; our goal is to prevent citizens from resorting to protest voting by acknowledging and addressing their concerns firsthand," he asserted.

Contrary to the demands from various political factions in Germany, Bavarian Premier Söder decided against dismissing Aiwanger in the face of these accusations, thereby demonstrating his support for the economy minister's continued presence.

Explaining Söder's decision, Thomas Kreuzer, the chairman of the CSU group in the Bavarian parliament, stated to CNN that they have not found any evidence of extremist or antisemitic tendencies in Aiwanger's political career.

Given these circumstances, it would be excessive to dismiss a minister based on unproven allegations that occurred 35 years ago when Aiwanger was still a school student.

Members of Chancellor Scholz's ruling SPD coalition, including Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, vehemently criticized the position, slamming the Bavarian leader for jeopardizing Germany's international standing. In Bavaria, the environmental Greens are fiercely fighting against their right-wing rivals. Center-left parties tend to have less popularity in this conservative state. However, this year, the Greens are polling at a comparable level of 15% to the FW and AfD.

Despite winning the election, the Greens would face difficulties in finding potential coalition partners. Kreuzer has categorically dismissed the possibility of forming a coalition with the Greens before the upcoming vote on Sunday.

"We lack significant common ground with the Greens in terms of political ideology, making a coalition unlikely to achieve successful policy outcomes," Kreuzer stated in an interview with CNN.

"We, however, desire a government free from any influence, similar to the traffic light system, in Bavaria. Thus, the upcoming elections in Hesse have garnered national attention, as Interior Minister Faeser is campaigning for the position of governor on behalf of the SPD, while simultaneously holding the crucial role of the country's top security official."

Faeser elaborated on her ambition during an interview with German newspaper Der Spiegel, stating that she aims to become the first female governor of Hesse, after becoming the first woman to lead the Interior Ministry. However, the likelihood of her accomplishing this goal is uncertain, as the CDU, in partnership with the Greens, currently governs Hesse, a region that was previously dominated by the SPD.

CNNs Inke Kappeler contributed reporting.